UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Calvary
Match Timeline
KCCA
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
60'
L. Olaboro
Calvary

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Calvary Win 19%
Draw 0%
KCCA Win 81%
Expected Goals (xG)
Calvary0.53
KCCA1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Calvary Calvary
WWDLW
9 GF / 33 GA
KCCA KCCA
WLDWL
36 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.39
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
5
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Calvary Calvary 23 matches
KCCA KCCA 24 matches
Calvary Statistic KCCA
1 Wins 16
7 Draws 3
15 Losses 5
9 Goals For 36
33 Goals Against 18
0.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
5 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 15
5 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 10
17 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around KCCA's more proactive style and Calvary's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KCCA. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward KCCA having the stronger overall control. KCCA look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. KCCA carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 51 points while Calvary sit 16 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Calvary Analysis

Calvary approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 24 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 9:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Olaboro (4 goals), S. Oriokot (2 goals), E. Ojok (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

KCCA Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 51 points from 24 games, KCCA bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 16 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 34:18, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Ahimbisibwe Ivan (11 goals), S. Ssebaduka (6 goals), S. Mayanja (5 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Calvary won 1 times, KCCA won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Calvary's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Calvary wins 1, draws 0, KCCA wins 1
Last matches: Calvary
23.05.26
Pre
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
Last matches: KCCA
23.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
1
W
19.05.26
Pre
KCCA
URA
0
0
D
13.05.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
2
1
W
07.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
3
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
1
1
D
21.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
3
0
W
11.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Express
3
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
2
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
KCCA
NEC
1
3
L
30.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
4
0
W
21.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
0
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
KCCA
NEC
2
1
W
H2H: Calvary vs KCCA
25.04.26
H2H
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
31.10.25
H2H
KCCA
Calvary
4
2
L
Last matches: Calvary
23.05.26
Pre
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
19.11.25
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
1
L
07.11.25
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
2
4
L
H2H at home: Calvary
25.04.26
H2H
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
Last matches: KCCA
19.05.26
Pre
KCCA
URA
0
0
D
13.05.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
2
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
3
0
W
02.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
13.02.26
Pre
KCCA
NEC
1
3
L
21.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
0
2
L
07.12.25
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
28.11.25
Pre
KCCA
Mbarara City
2
1
W
07.11.25
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
0
1
L
23.10.25
Pre
KCCA
Express
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
1
D
H2H away: KCCA
25.04.26
H2H
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2
KCCA Away
30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League