WALES PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
The Oval
Referee: C. Charlton-Fleming
Caernarfon Town
Match Timeline
Penybont
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
A. Cieslewicz
Caernarfon Town
20'
R. Owen
Caernarfon Town
🟨
36'
S. Bradley
Caernarfon Town
🟨
57'
P. Mooney
Caernarfon Town
🔄
60'
D. Gosset ↔ I. Lewis
Caernarfon Town
🟨
66'
N. Daley
Penybont
🔄
66'
J. Jones ↔ K. Owen
Penybont
🔄
66'
E. Cann ↔ I. Phillips
Penybont
🔄
71'
C. Venables ↔ A. Baker
Penybont
🔄
75'
K. Ludvigsen ↔ O. Warlow
Penybont
🔄
75'
N. Daley ↔ J. Villacorta
Penybont
🔄
78'
A. Cieslewicz ↔ M. Owen
Caernarfon Town
🔄
79'
S. Bradley ↔ D. Smith
Caernarfon Town
🔄
87'
R. Owen ↔ D. Thomas
Caernarfon Town
🟥
90+4'
A. Baker
Penybont

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 42.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
42.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Caernarfon Town Win 42.7%
Draw 28.5%
Penybont Win 28.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caernarfon Town1.66
Penybont1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
WWDLW
54 GF / 47 GA
Penybont Penybont
WLDWL
40 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
20
BTTS Yes
14
19
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 31 matches
Penybont Penybont 33 matches
Caernarfon Town Statistic Penybont
11 Wins 11
9 Draws 9
11 Losses 13
54 Goals For 40
47 Goals Against 51
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
20 BTTS Yes 14
28 Over 1.5 23
19 Over 2.5 15
12 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 11
6 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Penybont. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Penybont having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Caernarfon Town Analysis

Caernarfon Town sit 4 with 34 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 44:32, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Davies (11 goals), P. Mooney (7 goals), S. Bradley (6 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Penybont Analysis

Penybont approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 38 points from 22 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 36:31, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Crole (11 goals), N. Daley (11 goals), I. Phillips (4 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Caernarfon Town won 6 times, Penybont won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:29 from Caernarfon Town's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.5%)
H2H summary: Caernarfon Town wins 6, draws 1, Penybont wins 8

Lineups

Caernarfon Town
Formation
Penybont
C. Roberts
C. Roberts
M. Jones
M. Jones
P. Mooney
P. Mooney
P. Mendes
P. Mendes
D. Gosset
D. Gosset
S. Bradley
S. Bradley
A. Cieslewicz
A. Cieslewicz
J. Lock
J. Lock
K. Harrison
K. Harrison
R. Owen
R. Owen
R. Sears
R. Sears
L. Armstrong
L. Armstrong
K. Ludvigsen
K. Ludvigsen
J. Woodiwiss
J. Woodiwiss
M. Davies
M. Davies
N. Wood
N. Wood
O. Pritchard
O. Pritchard
C. Venables
C. Venables
E. Cann
E. Cann
N. Daley
N. Daley
J. Jones
J. Jones
C. Green
C. Green
Caernarfon Town 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
C. Roberts
3
M. Jones
5
P. Mooney
🟨 57'
7
P. Mendes
8
D. Gosset
↓ 60'
19
S. Bradley
↓ 79' 🟨 36'
22
A. Cieslewicz
⚽ 9' ↓ 78'
23
J. Lock
24
K. Harrison
25
R. Owen
⚽ 20' ↓ 87'
27
R. Sears
Substitutes
13
H. Thomas
2
M. Owen
↑ 78'
6
I. Lewis
↑ 60'
10
D. Thomas
↑ 87'
15
D. Smith
↑ 79'
33
C. Williams
39
O. Ellis
Penybont 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
L. Armstrong
2
K. Ludvigsen
↓ 75'
5
J. Woodiwiss
6
M. Davies
7
N. Wood
8
O. Pritchard
9
C. Venables
↓ 71'
10
E. Cann
↓ 66'
11
N. Daley
↓ 75' 🟨 66'
18
J. Jones
↓ 66'
29
C. Green
Substitutes
24
A. Matthews
3
K. Owen
↑ 66'
21
A. Baker
↑ 71' 🟥 90+4'
17
O. Warlow
↑ 75'
14
I. Phillips
↑ 66'
56
J. Florence
72
J. Villacorta
↑ 75'
Last matches: Caernarfon Town
20.06.26
Fri
Caernarfon Town
Glentoran
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
2
0
W
27.03.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
4
L
21.03.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
4
L
27.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
3
0
W
20.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
0
2
L
06.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0
0
D
13.01.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
31.12.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Bala Town
1
0
W
27.12.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Flint Town United
1
1
D
28.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
2
L
15.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
llanelli AFC
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Haverfordwest County AFC
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Briton Ferry
4
1
W
25.10.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
2
2
D
Last matches: Penybont
02.05.26
Pre
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
0
D
07.02.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
0
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
0
D
13.01.26
Pre
Penybont
Cardiff MET
1
1
D
01.01.26
Pre
Penybont
llanelli AFC
1
0
W
26.12.25
Pre
Penybont
Briton Ferry
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
4
5
L
15.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Bala Town
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Flint Town United
4
3
W
25.10.25
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
H2H: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
18.04.26
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
0
W
24.01.26
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
0
D
25.10.25
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
2
W
20.09.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
2
L
13.04.25
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
3
1
L
22.02.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
2
W
02.11.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
5
L
07.09.24
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2
0
L
18.05.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
1
W
04.11.23
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
4
L
16.09.23
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
3
2
L
07.01.23
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
5
1
L
05.11.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0
2
L
15.04.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
0
W
05.03.22
H2H
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
3
W
Last matches: Caernarfon Town
27.03.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
4
L
27.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
3
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
0
2
L
13.01.26
Pre
Caernarfon Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
27.12.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Flint Town United
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Haverfordwest County AFC
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Briton Ferry
4
1
W
07.10.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
1
3
L
28.09.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET
0
3
L
20.09.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
2
L
07.09.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
3
1
W
25.08.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
Bala Town
2
0
W
16.08.25
Pre
Caernarfon Town
llanelli AFC
6
1
W
H2H at home: Caernarfon Town
18.04.26
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
0
W
20.09.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
2
L
22.02.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
2
W
02.11.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
5
L
18.05.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
1
W
04.11.23
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
4
L
05.11.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0
2
L
15.04.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
0
W
Last matches: Penybont
25.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
1
3
L
07.02.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
0
6
L
01.01.26
Pre
Penybont
llanelli AFC
1
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
4
5
L
08.11.25
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Flint Town United
4
3
W
11.10.25
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
2
6
L
03.10.25
Pre
Penybont
Briton Ferry
0
0
D
23.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Cardiff MET
4
0
W
20.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
06.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Bala Town
0
0
D
22.08.25
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
3
2
W
08.08.25
Pre
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
1
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
Penybont
Kauno Žalgiris
0
3
L
H2H away: Penybont
18.04.26
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
0
L
20.09.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
2
W
22.02.25
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
2
L
02.11.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
5
W
18.05.24
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
3
1
L
04.11.23
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
2
4
W
05.11.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
0
2
W
15.04.22
H2H
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
1
0
L

Standings

Cymru Premier
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 59:19 40 53
W W W L W
2 22 14 5 3 48:25 23 47
D L D W W
3 22 11 5 6 36:31 5 38
W W L L D
4 22 9 7 6 44:32 12 34
W W L L L
5 22 7 9 6 33:25 8 30
L L W D W
6 22 8 6 8 29:25 4 30
L D L D W
7 22 6 10 6 33:36 -3 28
D L W W L
8 22 6 7 9 32:40 -8 25
W W L D W
9 22 6 6 10 30:39 -9 24
L W W W W
10 22 6 5 11 19:30 -11 23
L W L W D
11 22 5 6 11 34:48 -14 21
D L L D D
12 22 2 2 18 12:59 -47 8
L L W L L
Championship round
Relegation Round