FRANCE NATIONAL 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Michel d'Ornano
Caen
Match Timeline
Villefranche
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
A. Duville-Parsemain · Assist: Y. M'Vila
Caen
19'
L. Rajot
Caen
🔄
34'
M. Assef ↔ R. Mroivili
Villefranche
🟨
56'
L. Etoga
Villefranche
🔄
60'
B. Dali Amar ↔ L. Milliner
Caen
🔄
66'
S. Keita ↔ K. Nagera
Villefranche
🔄
66'
L. Etoga ↔ T. Matip Ngom
Villefranche
🔄
73'
A. Duville-Parsemain ↔ A. Gnanduillet
Caen
🔄
73'
M. Hafid ↔ K. Portut
Caen
74'
I. Botella · Assist: K. Portut
Caen
🟨
76'
M. Touho
Villefranche
🔄
81'
M. Touho ↔ Y. Sofiane
Villefranche
🔄
84'
I. Botella ↔ G. Tome
Caen
🟨
90+2'
L. Rajot
Caen

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 38.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
38.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Caen Win 38.2%
Draw 29%
Villefranche Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caen1.27
Villefranche1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caen Caen
WWDLW
37 GF / 34 GA
Villefranche Villefranche
WLDWL
32 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
18
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caen Caen 30 matches
Villefranche Villefranche 29 matches
Caen Statistic Villefranche
7 Wins 10
15 Draws 6
8 Losses 13
37 Goals For 32
34 Goals Against 39
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
18 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 18
5 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Caen's more proactive style and Villefranche's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Villefranche. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Villefranche having the stronger overall control.

Caen Analysis

Caen sit 8 with 36 points after 29 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 15 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 33:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Botella (8 goals), A. Gnanduillet (5 goals), A. Duville-Parsemain (4 goals), with creative support from I. Botella (4 assists), R. Labonne (4 assists), O. Mazie (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Villefranche Analysis

Villefranche are currently 9 in the standings with 36 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, while the 29:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Leye (9 goals), M. Assef (5 goals), K. Mixtur (3 goals), with creative support from R. Mroivili (3 assists), M. Louzif (3 assists), S. Keita (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Caen won 1 times, Villefranche won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from Caen's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71%)
H2H summary: Caen wins 1, draws 1, Villefranche wins 0

Lineups

Caen
Formation
Villefranche
Y. Clementia
Y. Clementia
R. Labonne
R. Labonne
Y. M'Vila
🎯
Y. M'Vila
L. Morante
L. Morante
D. Bolumbu
D. Bolumbu
Z. Bagbema
Z. Bagbema
L. Rajot
L. Rajot
M. Hafid
M. Hafid
B. Dali Amar
B. Dali Amar
I. Botella
I. Botella
A. Duville-Parsemain
A. Duville-Parsemain
S. Pean
S. Pean
B. J. Bayeye
B. J. Bayeye
M. Tshibuabua
M. Tshibuabua
E. Kabeya
E. Kabeya
S. Ouedraogo
S. Ouedraogo
M. Louzif
M. Louzif
L. Etoga
L. Etoga
S. Keita
S. Keita
M. Touho
M. Touho
M. Assef
M. Assef
V. Marcel
V. Marcel
Caen 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
Y. Clementia
17
R. Labonne
6
Y. M'Vila
🎯 7'
23
L. Morante
3
D. Bolumbu
25
Z. Bagbema
14
L. Rajot
⚽ 19' 🟨 90+2'
22
M. Hafid
↓ 73'
5
B. Dali Amar
↓ 60'
19
I. Botella
⚽ 74' ↓ 84'
9
A. Duville-Parsemain
⚽ 7' ↓ 73'
Substitutes
26
M. Etuin
24
L. Milliner
↑ 60'
21
G. Tome
↑ 84'
11
A. Gnanduillet
↑ 73'
32
K. Portut
🎯 74' ↑ 73'
Villefranche 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
S. Pean
6
B. J. Bayeye
4
M. Tshibuabua
5
E. Kabeya
25
S. Ouedraogo
7
M. Louzif
22
L. Etoga
↓ 66' 🟨 56'
18
S. Keita
↓ 66'
24
M. Touho
↓ 81' 🟨 76'
11
M. Assef
↓ 34'
8
V. Marcel
Substitutes
16
T. Wilzius
19
K. Nagera
↑ 66'
20
Y. Sofiane
↑ 81'
10
R. Mroivili
↑ 34'
29
T. Matip Ngom
↑ 66'
Last matches: Caen
09.07.26
Fri
Caen
Rennes
2
1
W
15.05.26
Nat
Caen
Aubagne
1
3
L
09.05.26
Nat
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
17.04.26
Nat
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
2
0
W
10.04.26
Nat
Caen
Gobelins
3
0
W
03.04.26
Nat
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
27.03.26
Nat
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
21.03.26
Nat
Caen
Orleans
1
1
D
13.03.26
Nat
Caen
Le Puy Foot
0
1
L
06.03.26
Nat
Caen
Chateauroux
2
2
D
28.02.26
Nat
Caen
Valenciennes
1
2
L
20.02.26
Nat
Caen
Sochaux
1
3
L
13.02.26
Nat
Caen
Dijon
3
3
D
06.02.26
Nat
Caen
Fleury 91
1
0
W
30.01.26
Nat
Caen
Versailles
1
2
L
23.01.26
Nat
Caen
Quevilly
0
0
D
16.01.26
Nat
Caen
Concarneau
3
3
D
05.12.25
Nat
Caen
Villefranche
1
1
D
21.11.25
Nat
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1
0
W
15.11.25
Cou
Caen
Bayeux
2
3
L
Last matches: Villefranche
15.05.26
Nat
Villefranche
Concarneau
2
2
D
02.05.26
Nat
Villefranche
Bourg-en-bresse 01
0
1
L
17.04.26
Nat
Villefranche
Gobelins
3
1
W
10.04.26
Nat
Villefranche
Stade Briochin
0
0
D
03.04.26
Nat
Villefranche
Rouen
2
1
W
27.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Orleans
0
0
D
20.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Le Puy Foot
2
3
L
13.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Chateauroux
1
0
W
06.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Valenciennes
2
3
L
27.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Sochaux
1
2
L
20.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Dijon
1
2
L
13.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Fleury 91
2
2
D
06.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Versailles
1
0
W
30.01.26
Nat
Villefranche
Quevilly
2
1
W
23.01.26
Nat
Villefranche
Aubagne
2
1
W
12.12.25
Nat
Villefranche
Bourg-en-bresse 01
0
1
L
05.12.25
Nat
Villefranche
Caen
1
1
D
21.11.25
Nat
Villefranche
Gobelins
0
1
L
07.11.25
Nat
Villefranche
Stade Briochin
3
1
W
01.11.25
Nat
Villefranche
Rouen
1
2
L
H2H: Caen vs Villefranche
24.04.26
H2H
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
W
05.12.25
H2H
Villefranche
Caen
1
1
D
Last matches: Caen
09.05.26
Nat
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
03.04.26
Nat
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
21.03.26
Nat
Caen
Orleans
1
1
D
06.03.26
Nat
Caen
Chateauroux
2
2
D
20.02.26
Nat
Caen
Sochaux
1
3
L
06.02.26
Nat
Caen
Fleury 91
1
0
W
23.01.26
Nat
Caen
Quevilly
0
0
D
21.11.25
Nat
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1
0
W
07.11.25
Nat
Caen
Gobelins
0
0
D
21.10.25
Nat
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
03.10.25
Nat
Caen
Le Puy Foot
2
0
W
19.09.25
Nat
Caen
Valenciennes
0
0
D
05.09.25
Nat
Caen
Dijon
0
0
D
22.08.25
Nat
Caen
Versailles
0
2
L
08.08.25
Nat
Caen
Aubagne
3
0
W
13.08.19
Cou
Caen
Nancy
0
1
L
H2H at home: Caen
24.04.26
H2H
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
W
Last matches: Villefranche
15.05.26
Nat
Villefranche
Concarneau
2
2
D
02.05.26
Nat
Villefranche
Bourg-en-bresse 01
0
1
L
10.04.26
Nat
Villefranche
Stade Briochin
0
0
D
27.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Orleans
0
0
D
13.03.26
Nat
Villefranche
Chateauroux
1
0
W
27.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Sochaux
1
2
L
13.02.26
Nat
Villefranche
Fleury 91
2
2
D
30.01.26
Nat
Villefranche
Quevilly
2
1
W
21.11.25
Nat
Villefranche
Gobelins
0
1
L
01.11.25
Nat
Villefranche
Rouen
1
2
L
17.10.25
Nat
Villefranche
Le Puy Foot
0
3
L
07.10.25
Nat
Villefranche
Versailles
1
2
L
26.09.25
Nat
Villefranche
Valenciennes
0
2
L
12.09.25
Nat
Villefranche
Dijon
0
0
D
15.08.25
Nat
Villefranche
Aubagne
1
3
L
H2H away: Villefranche
24.04.26
H2H
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
L

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 11 3 52:25 27 65
W W L W D
2 32 16 10 6 51:26 25 58
D L D W D
3 32 14 13 5 43:29 14 55
W L D W D
4 32 15 9 8 47:30 17 54
L L W W W
5 32 15 8 9 46:34 12 53
D W D D W
6 32 14 9 9 42:42 0 51
L W D L W
7 32 12 11 9 45:38 7 47
D L L D D
8
Caen Home
32 8 16 8 39:34 5 40
L D W W W
9 32 8 14 10 32:37 -5 38
D D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 35:44 -9 37
D L D L L
11 32 9 10 13 38:46 -8 37
W D L L L
12 32 10 7 15 34:45 -11 37
D L L W D
13 32 8 9 15 34:45 -11 33
W L D W D
14 32 7 11 14 26:41 -15 32
L D D L L
15 32 8 7 17 25:44 -19 31
W W L L L
16 32 6 13 13 35:49 -14 30
D W W L L
17 32 5 12 15 35:50 -15 27
D W W L D
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