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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
16.10.2026 19:00
Turf Moor

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds 2.39
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.2%
2.39 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.83 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 19%
Draw 4.9%
Wolves Win 76.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.28
Wolves1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
21 GF / 32 GA
Wolves Wolves
WLDWL
23 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.77
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
14
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
8
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 16 matches
Wolves Wolves 13 matches
Burnley Statistic Wolves
1 Wins 7
7 Draws 2
8 Losses 4
21 Goals For 23
32 Goals Against 16
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
14 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 9
11 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 1
4.2 Shots On Goal 4.11
14.2 Total Shots 15.89
4.8 Corners 6.56
49.3% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Wolves's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Wolves. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Wolves carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 14 points while Burnley sit 24 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Burnley Analysis

With 4 points from 8 games and a place of 24, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 9:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Z. Amdouni (2 goals), Zian Flemming (2 goals), L. Ramazani (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ramazani (1 assists), Max Alleyne (1 assists), J. Bruun Larsen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wolves Analysis

Wolves approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 14 points after 7 outings. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 15:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fer López (3 goals), R. Jiménez (3 goals), Rodrigo Gomes (2 goals), with creative support from Fer López (2 assists), André (2 assists), Rodrigo Gomes (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 5 times, Wolves won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Burnley's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Wolves 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Burnley wins 5, draws 6, Wolves wins 4

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:7 9 23
W W W W L
2 10 6 3 1 20:14 6 21
W W D D W
3 10 4 5 1 17:11 6 17
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 12:10 2 17
W L L D W
5 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
6 10 5 1 4 17:16 1 16
L W W W D
7 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
W W D W L
8 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
9 9 4 2 3 16:14 2 14
L L W W D
10 10 4 2 4 16:16 0 14
L W D D L
11 10 4 2 4 12:14 -2 14
L D W L L
12 10 3 5 2 10:13 -3 14
D D L D D
13 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
14 10 4 1 5 15:18 -3 13
W L W W L
15 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
16 10 2 5 3 11:15 -4 11
L D W L D
17 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
18 10 2 4 4 16:15 1 10
W L W L D
19 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
20 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
21 10 1 5 4 15:19 -4 8
D W D L D
22 10 2 2 6 8:19 -11 8
L L L L W
23 9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 10 1 1 8 8:20 -12 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One