UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
FT
2 - 5
FUFA Technical Centre
BUL
Match Timeline
UPDF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
E. Ochen
UPDF
34'
D. Ssewagudde
BUL
39'
I. Bogere
UPDF
45'
E. Lubwama
UPDF
45'
E. Ochen
UPDF
61'
R. Faridi
UPDF
90'
H. Onek
BUL

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 56%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
56%
-
Probability Distribution
BUL Win 91.1%
Draw 0%
UPDF Win 8.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
BUL1.19
UPDF0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
BUL BUL
WWDLW
25 GF / 22 GA
UPDF UPDF
WLDWL
17 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
0.74
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
11
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BUL BUL 23 matches
UPDF UPDF 23 matches
BUL Statistic UPDF
8 Wins 4
7 Draws 5
8 Losses 14
25 Goals For 17
22 Goals Against 31
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 0.74
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
11 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by BUL's more proactive style and UPDF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward UPDF having the stronger overall control. BUL arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 31 points compared to UPDF in 13 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UPDF. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

BUL Analysis

BUL are currently 8 in the standings with 31 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 24:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Ndugwa (6 goals), I. Wagoina (3 goals), J. Kirya (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

UPDF Analysis

So far, UPDF have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 17 points from 23 matches. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 17:30 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Ssekamatte (7 goals), E. Ochen (3 goals), S. Kigozi (3 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, BUL won 7 times, UPDF won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:21 from BUL's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: BUL wins 7, draws 2, UPDF wins 5
Last matches: BUL
23.05.26
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
4
L
19.05.26
Pre
BUL
Kitara
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
0
0
D
28.04.26
Pre
BUL
NEC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
BUL
Express
2
0
W
16.04.26
Pre
BUL
URA
1
1
D
08.04.26
Pre
BUL
Maroons
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
5
1
W
03.03.26
Pre
BUL
Police
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
1
2
L
23.01.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
BUL
Police
1
3
L
13.12.25
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
3
L
Last matches: UPDF
23.05.26
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
0
0
D
13.05.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
1
2
L
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
UPDF
URA
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
09.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
UPDF
BUL
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
0
D
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
H2H: BUL vs UPDF
21.04.26
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
5
L
30.01.26
H2H
UPDF
BUL
0
1
W
24.05.25
H2H
UPDF
BUL
2
3
W
04.12.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
2
L
12.03.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
1
L
09.11.23
H2H
UPDF
BUL
2
0
L
21.02.23
H2H
UPDF
BUL
1
1
D
08.10.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
3
1
W
01.03.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
5
1
W
22.12.21
H2H
UPDF
BUL
1
1
D
20.04.21
H2H
BUL
UPDF
4
3
W
12.12.20
H2H
UPDF
BUL
2
1
L
24.04.18
H2H
UPDF
BUL
0
3
W
27.09.17
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
0
W
Last matches: BUL
19.05.26
Pre
BUL
Kitara
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.04.26
Pre
BUL
NEC
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
5
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
1
D
23.01.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
W
16.12.25
Pre
BUL
Police
1
3
L
07.12.25
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
27.11.25
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
30.10.25
Pre
BUL
Express
0
0
D
23.10.25
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
01.10.25
Pre
BUL
Maroons
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
BUL
URA
0
0
D
H2H at home: BUL
21.04.26
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
5
L
04.12.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
2
L
12.03.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
1
L
08.10.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
3
1
W
01.03.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
5
1
W
20.04.21
H2H
BUL
UPDF
4
3
W
27.09.17
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
0
W
Last matches: UPDF
23.05.26
Pre
UPDF
SC Villa
1
2
L
07.05.26
Pre
UPDF
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
UPDF
Police
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
UPDF
Maroons
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
UPDF
NEC
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
UPDF
Lugazi
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
UPDF
KCCA
0
4
L
07.01.26
Pre
UPDF
Kitara
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Buhimba Saints
2
2
D
02.12.25
Pre
UPDF
Vipers
1
5
L
19.11.25
Pre
UPDF
Calvary
1
0
W
29.10.25
Pre
UPDF
URA
2
3
L
03.10.25
Pre
UPDF
Mbarara City
1
0
W
26.09.25
Pre
UPDF
Express
0
1
L
H2H away: UPDF
21.04.26
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
5
W
04.12.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
2
W
12.03.24
H2H
BUL
UPDF
0
1
W
08.10.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
3
1
L
01.03.22
H2H
BUL
UPDF
5
1
L
20.04.21
H2H
BUL
UPDF
4
3
L
27.09.17
H2H
BUL
UPDF
2
0
L