Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
71.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
72.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
63.3%
|
- |
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Brisbane Roar
24 matches
Melbourne City
24 matches
| Brisbane Roar | Statistic | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 9 |
| 8 | Draws | 8 |
| 10 | Losses | 7 |
| 24 | Goals For | 29 |
| 31 | Goals Against | 29 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.21 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
| 13 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 16 | Over 1.5 | 16 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.25 | Shots On Goal | 4.25 |
| 13.58 | Total Shots | 13.25 |
| 4.92 | Corners | 5.79 |
| 45.6% | Ball Possession | 55.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Brisbane Roar appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Melbourne City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Melbourne City. Melbourne City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Brisbane Roar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Melbourne City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Melbourne City having the stronger overall control.
So far, Brisbane Roar have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 24:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Christopher Long (4 goals), J. Vidic (4 goals), S. Klein (4 goals), with creative support from James McGarry (3 assists), J. Vidic (2 assists), J. O'Shea (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Amanatidis, H. Bility, N. D'Agostino unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
From their first 24 matches, Melbourne City have collected 35 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 29:29 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Caputo (8 goals), Marcus Younis (6 goals), M. Memeti (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kuen (4 assists), Marcus Younis (3 assists), D. Arzani (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Kanamori, A. Lopane, R. Teague unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane Roar won 2 times, Melbourne City won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:32 from Brisbane Roar's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.
Brisbane Roar
3
6
8
4
4
0
Lineups
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
Newcastle Jets
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
Macarthur
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
Brisbane Roar
Newcastle Jets
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 16 | 48 |
W
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 10 | 43 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 13 | 42 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 4 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 11 | 40 |
W
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 8 | 39 |
D
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 |
Melbourne City
Away
|
26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 0 | 38 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
| 7 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | -7 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | -12 | 33 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | -7 | 32 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | -7 | 31 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 11 |
Brisbane Roar
Home
|
26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | -9 | 26 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
| 12 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 21 |
L
L
L
L
L
|