AUSTRALIA › A-LEAGUE
18.04.2026 07:00
Suncorp Stadium
Referee: D. Elder
Brisbane Roar
Match Timeline
Melbourne City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
J. Vidic
Brisbane Roar
🔄
61'
A. Nabbout ↔ M. Memeti
Melbourne City
🔄
61'
H. Shillington ↔ P. Antoniou
Melbourne City
⚽
61'
M. Younis
Melbourne City
⚽
67'
M. Younis
Melbourne City
🔄
70'
J. McGarry ↔ M. Dench
Brisbane Roar
🔄
70'
G. Vrakas ↔ Q. MacNicol
Brisbane Roar
🔄
75'
J. Lauton ↔ J. O'Shea
Brisbane Roar
🔄
75'
Z. Schreiber ↔ M. Leckie
Melbourne City
🔄
75'
K. Rahmani ↔ E. Durakovic
Melbourne City
⚽
80'
M. Memeti · Assist: E. Rashani
Melbourne City
🔄
81'
M. Younis ↔ M. Caputo
Melbourne City
🔄
82'
M. Lode ↔ N. Thom
Brisbane Roar
🟨
84'
Andreas Kuen
Melbourne City
🟨
89'
Medin Memeti
Melbourne City
⚽
90'
Y. Salas
Brisbane Roar

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Brisbane Roar Win 16.9%
Draw 11.2%
Melbourne City Win 71.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brisbane Roar1.08
Melbourne City1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar
WWDLW
24 GF / 31 GA
Melbourne City Melbourne City
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
13
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
10
4.25
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 24 matches
Melbourne City Melbourne City 24 matches
Brisbane Roar Statistic Melbourne City
6 Wins 9
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 7
24 Goals For 29
31 Goals Against 29
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
13 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 6
4.25 Shots On Goal 4.25
13.58 Total Shots 13.25
4.92 Corners 5.79
45.6% Ball Possession 55.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Brisbane Roar appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Melbourne City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Melbourne City. Melbourne City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Brisbane Roar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Melbourne City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Melbourne City having the stronger overall control.

Brisbane Roar Analysis

So far, Brisbane Roar have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 24:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Christopher Long (4 goals), J. Vidic (4 goals), S. Klein (4 goals), with creative support from James McGarry (3 assists), J. Vidic (2 assists), J. O'Shea (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Amanatidis, H. Bility, N. D'Agostino unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Melbourne City Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Melbourne City have collected 35 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 29:29 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Caputo (8 goals), Marcus Younis (6 goals), M. Memeti (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kuen (4 assists), Marcus Younis (3 assists), D. Arzani (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Kanamori, A. Lopane, R. Teague unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane Roar won 2 times, Melbourne City won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:32 from Brisbane Roar's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Brisbane Roar 4-2-3-1 / Melbourne City 4-3-3
Missing players: Brisbane Roar 6, Melbourne City 3
H2H summary: Brisbane Roar wins 2, draws 2, Melbourne City wins 11

Standings

A-League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 3 8 55:39 16 48
W D D L W
2 26 12 7 7 46:36 10 43
W W D D W
3 26 11 9 6 42:29 13 42
D L D D L
4 26 11 7 8 44:33 11 40
W D D L W
5 26 11 6 9 33:25 8 39
D D W D L
6 26 10 8 8 33:33 0 38
L W W W W
7 26 9 7 10 37:44 -7 34
W L L W W
8 26 9 6 11 36:48 -12 33
L W L W W
9 26 8 8 10 35:42 -7 32
L W D L D
10 26 8 7 11 32:39 -7 31
W D W D D
11 26 6 8 12 27:36 -9 26
L L D D L
12 26 5 6 15 27:43 -16 21
L L L L L
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)