AUSTRALIA A-LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Suncorp Stadium
Referee: D. Elder
Brisbane Roar
Match Timeline
Melbourne City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
J. Vidic
Brisbane Roar
🔄
61'
A. Nabbout ↔ M. Memeti
Melbourne City
🔄
61'
H. Shillington ↔ P. Antoniou
Melbourne City
61'
M. Younis
Melbourne City
67'
M. Younis
Melbourne City
🔄
70'
J. McGarry ↔ M. Dench
Brisbane Roar
🔄
70'
G. Vrakas ↔ Q. MacNicol
Brisbane Roar
🔄
75'
J. Lauton ↔ J. O'Shea
Brisbane Roar
🔄
75'
Z. Schreiber ↔ M. Leckie
Melbourne City
🔄
75'
K. Rahmani ↔ E. Durakovic
Melbourne City
80'
M. Memeti · Assist: E. Rashani
Melbourne City
🔄
81'
M. Younis ↔ M. Caputo
Melbourne City
🔄
82'
M. Lode ↔ N. Thom
Brisbane Roar
🟨
84'
Andreas Kuen
Melbourne City
🟨
89'
Medin Memeti
Melbourne City
90'
Y. Salas
Brisbane Roar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Brisbane Roar Win 16.9%
Draw 11.2%
Melbourne City Win 71.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brisbane Roar1.08
Melbourne City1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar
WWDLW
24 GF / 31 GA
Melbourne City Melbourne City
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
13
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
10
4.25
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 24 matches
Melbourne City Melbourne City 24 matches
Brisbane Roar Statistic Melbourne City
6 Wins 9
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 7
24 Goals For 29
31 Goals Against 29
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
13 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 6
4.25 Shots On Goal 4.25
13.58 Total Shots 13.25
4.92 Corners 5.79
45.6% Ball Possession 55.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Brisbane Roar appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Melbourne City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Melbourne City. Melbourne City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Brisbane Roar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Melbourne City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Melbourne City having the stronger overall control.

Brisbane Roar Analysis

So far, Brisbane Roar have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 24:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Christopher Long (4 goals), J. Vidic (4 goals), S. Klein (4 goals), with creative support from James McGarry (3 assists), J. Vidic (2 assists), J. O'Shea (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Amanatidis, H. Bility, N. D'Agostino unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Melbourne City Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Melbourne City have collected 35 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 29:29 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Caputo (8 goals), Marcus Younis (6 goals), M. Memeti (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kuen (4 assists), Marcus Younis (3 assists), D. Arzani (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Kanamori, A. Lopane, R. Teague unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane Roar won 2 times, Melbourne City won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:32 from Brisbane Roar's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Brisbane Roar 4-2-3-1 / Melbourne City 4-3-3
Missing players: Brisbane Roar 6, Melbourne City 3
H2H summary: Brisbane Roar wins 2, draws 2, Melbourne City wins 11
Stats
Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City Melbourne City
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
3 Corner Kicks 5
14 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 6
8 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
422 Total passes 340
332 Passes accurate 262
1.09 expected_goals 2.28
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Brisbane Roar
Formation
Melbourne City
D. Bouzanis
D. Bouzanis
Y. Salas
Y. Salas
D. Valkanis
D. Valkanis
M. Lode
M. Lode
J. McGarry
J. McGarry
N. Maieroni
N. Maieroni
S. Klein
S. Klein
H. Hore
H. Hore
J. Lauton
J. Lauton
G. Vrakas
G. Vrakas
J. Vidic
J. Vidic
P. Beach
P. Beach
H. Shillington
H. Shillington
G. Ferreyra
G. Ferreyra
S. Souprayen
S. Souprayen
A. Behich
A. Behich
A. Kuen
A. Kuen
Z. Schreiber
Z. Schreiber
K. Rahmani
K. Rahmani
M. Younis
⚽ 2
M. Younis
A. Nabbout
A. Nabbout
E. Rashani
🎯
E. Rashani
Brisbane Roar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
D. Bouzanis
G
2
Y. Salas
⚽ 90'
D
3
D. Valkanis
D
5
M. Lode
↓ 82'
D
23
J. McGarry
↓ 70'
D
31
N. Maieroni
M
8
S. Klein
M
13
H. Hore
M
44
J. Lauton
↓ 75'
M
10
G. Vrakas
↓ 70'
M
17
J. Vidic
⚽ 44'
F
Substitutes
11
M. Freke
G
26
J. O'Shea
↑ 75'
M
19
M. Ruhs
F
16
M. Dench
↑ 70'
D
30
Q. MacNicol
↑ 70'
M
39
N. Thom
↑ 82'
M
6
A. Ludwik
D
Melbourne City 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
P. Beach
G
36
H. Shillington
↓ 61'
D
22
G. Ferreyra
D
26
S. Souprayen
D
16
A. Behich
D
30
A. Kuen
🟨 84'
M
19
Z. Schreiber
↓ 75'
M
47
K. Rahmani
↓ 75'
M
28
M. Younis
⚽ 61' ⚽ 67' ↓ 81'
F
15
A. Nabbout
↓ 61'
F
11
E. Rashani
🎯 80'
F
Substitutes
40
J. Nieuwenhuizen
G
17
M. Caputo
↑ 81'
F
35
M. Memeti
⚽ 80' ↑ 61' 🟨 89'
F
7
M. Leckie
↑ 75'
F
2
H. Delbridge
D
39
E. Durakovic
↑ 75'
M
37
P. Antoniou
↑ 61'
D
Last matches: Brisbane Roar
25.04.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
1
2
L
10.04.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
02.04.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
0
0
D
21.03.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
1
2
L
13.03.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
2
2
D
28.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
1
1
D
21.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
0
1
L
14.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
1
1
D
07.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
1
2
L
31.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Newcastle Jets
1
4
L
24.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
2
3
L
16.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
2
1
W
09.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
0
2
L
06.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
1
L
03.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
0
3
L
31.12.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
2
1
W
19.12.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Macarthur
1
2
L
13.12.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
0
0
D
07.12.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
1
0
W
28.11.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
1
0
W
Last matches: Melbourne City
02.05.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Auckland
1
1
D
26.04.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
1
2
L
12.04.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
2
0
W
07.04.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
2
1
W
04.04.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
3
0
W
22.03.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
1
1
D
17.03.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Sydney
1
0
W
28.02.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Auckland
0
3
L
21.02.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
1
3
L
07.02.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
1
1
D
30.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
2
2
D
24.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Macarthur
2
6
L
16.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Auckland
2
1
W
11.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
0
1
L
06.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
1
0
W
03.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Sydney
0
0
D
28.12.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
1
3
L
23.12.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Macarthur
1
1
D
20.12.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
0
1
L
06.12.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
1
0
W
H2H: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
18.04.26
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
2
3
L
06.01.26
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
1
0
L
31.10.25
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
11.04.25
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
3
2
L
11.01.25
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
1
0
L
06.12.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
4
L
10.02.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
5
1
W
28.12.23
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
8
1
L
12.03.23
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
2
1
L
21.01.23
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
14.10.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
2
L
23.03.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
2
L
19.11.21
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
2
1
L
25.05.21
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
3
0
W
09.05.21
H2H
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
3
2
L
Last matches: Brisbane Roar
02.04.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Sydney
0
0
D
21.03.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
1
2
L
13.03.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Western Sydney Wanderers
2
2
D
28.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
1
1
D
07.02.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
1
2
L
24.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Adelaide United
2
3
L
09.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
0
2
L
03.01.26
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
0
3
L
28.11.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
1
0
W
09.11.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Newcastle Jets
3
0
W
31.10.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
17.10.25
A-L
Brisbane Roar
Macarthur
1
0
W
H2H at home: Brisbane Roar
18.04.26
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
2
3
L
31.10.25
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
06.12.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
4
L
10.02.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
5
1
W
21.01.23
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
14.10.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
2
L
23.03.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
2
L
25.05.21
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
3
0
W
Last matches: Melbourne City
02.05.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Auckland
1
1
D
22.03.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
1
1
D
17.03.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Sydney
1
0
W
28.02.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Auckland
0
3
L
07.02.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
1
1
D
30.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
2
2
D
24.01.26
A-L
Melbourne City
Macarthur
2
6
L
06.12.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
1
0
W
29.11.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
0
0
D
21.11.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
1
4
L
08.11.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
2
0
W
31.10.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
0
0
D
18.10.25
A-L
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
1
1
D
H2H away: Melbourne City
18.04.26
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
2
3
W
31.10.25
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
06.12.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
4
W
10.02.24
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
5
1
L
21.01.23
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
0
D
14.10.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
0
2
W
23.03.22
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
1
2
W
25.05.21
H2H
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
3
0
L

Standings

A-League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 3 8 55:39 16 48
W D D L W
2 26 12 7 7 46:36 10 43
W W D D W
3 26 11 9 6 42:29 13 42
D L D D L
4 26 11 7 8 44:33 11 40
W D D L W
5 26 11 6 9 33:25 8 39
D D W D L
6 26 10 8 8 33:33 0 38
L W W W W
7 26 9 7 10 37:44 -7 34
W L L W W
8 26 9 6 11 36:48 -12 33
L W L W W
9 26 8 8 10 35:42 -7 32
L W D L D
10 26 8 7 11 32:39 -7 31
W D W D D
11 26 6 8 12 27:36 -9 26
L L D D L
12 26 5 6 15 27:43 -16 21
L L L L L
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)

Missing Players

Brisbane Roar 6 missing
-
N. Amanatidis
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
H. Bility
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
N. D'Agostino
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Long
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Stajic
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
B. Warland
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Melbourne City 3 missing
-
T. Kanamori
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Lopane
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
R. Teague
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT