Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
53.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
56.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
82.9%
|
- |
Brighton
Chelsea
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Brighton
35 matches
Chelsea
47 matches
| Brighton | Statistic | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wins | 22 |
| 11 | Draws | 10 |
| 11 | Losses | 15 |
| 47 | Goals For | 92 |
| 43 | Goals Against | 63 |
| 1.34 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.96 |
| 1.23 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
| 21 | BTTS Yes | 28 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 40 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 33 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 20 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 14 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 4.4 | Shots On Goal | 5.3 |
| 12.89 | Total Shots | 14.51 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 6.11 |
| 52.5% | Ball Possession | 58.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Chelsea seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Chelsea arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chelsea. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.
Brighton sit 9 with 47 points after 33 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, while the 43:37 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Welbeck (12 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), Georginio Rutter (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), Jan Paul van Hecke (3 assists), Y. Ayari (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Tzimas, A. Webster, D. Gomez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Chelsea approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 48 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 53:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Colwill, R. James, F. Jorgensen, M. Mudryk unavailable.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brighton won 6 times, Chelsea won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:23 from Brighton's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.
Brighton
9
0
4
2
2
4
Lineups
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Leeds
Brighton
Wolves
Brighton
Newcastle
Brighton
Tottenham
Brighton
Burnley
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Sunderland
Brighton
Arsenal
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Brentford
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Aston Villa
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Everton
Brighton
Fulham
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Manchester City
Brighton
Burnley
Chelsea
Sunderland
Chelsea
Tottenham
Chelsea
Manchester City
Chelsea
Liverpool
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
Leeds
Chelsea
Manchester United
Chelsea
Manchester City
Chelsea
Port Vale
Chelsea
Everton
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
Newcastle
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
Wrexham
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Arsenal
Chelsea
Burnley
Chelsea
Hull City
Chelsea
Leeds
Chelsea
Wolves
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Wolves
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Arsenal
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Everton
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brighton
Burnley
Brighton
Sunderland
Brighton
West Ham
Brighton
Aston Villa
Brighton
Brentford
Brighton
Leeds
Brighton
Newcastle
Brighton
Tottenham
Brighton
Manchester City
Brighton
Fulham
Chelsea
Sunderland
Chelsea
Liverpool
Chelsea
Everton
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
Wrexham
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Arsenal
Chelsea
Hull City
Chelsea
Wolves
Chelsea
Napoli
Chelsea
Crystal Palace
Chelsea
Charlton
Chelsea
Fulham
Chelsea
Manchester City
Chelsea
Newcastle
Chelsea
Atalanta
Chelsea
Bournemouth
Chelsea
Leeds
Chelsea
Burnley
Chelsea
Qarabag
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 |
Brighton
Home
|
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 |
Chelsea
Away
|
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|