ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Amex Stadium
Referee: C. Pawson
Brighton
Match Timeline
Chelsea
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
F. Kadioglu
Brighton
🟨
45+1'
Wesley Fofana
Chelsea
🔄
46'
M. Wieffer ↔ J. Veltman
Brighton
🔄
46'
W. Fofana ↔ A. Garnacho
Chelsea
56'
J. Hinshelwood · Assist: G. Rutter
Brighton
🟨
58'
Yankuba Minteh
Brighton
🔄
72'
L. Delap ↔ M. Guiu
Chelsea
🔄
73'
R. Lavia ↔ D. Essugo
Chelsea
🔄
77'
Y. Minteh ↔ M. De Cuyper
Brighton
🔄
82'
K. Mitoma ↔ Y. Ayari
Brighton
🔄
83'
G. Rutter ↔ D. Welbeck
Brighton
🔄
90+2'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ M. O'Riley
Brighton
🔄
90+2'
M. Gusto ↔ J. Acheampong
Chelsea
90'
D. Welbeck · Assist: M. De Cuyper
Brighton

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Brighton Win 53.8%
Draw 11.5%
Chelsea Win 34.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brighton1.34
Chelsea1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brighton Brighton
WWDLW
47 GF / 43 GA
Chelsea Chelsea
WLDWL
92 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
21
BTTS Yes
28
17
Over 2.5
33
4.4
Shots on Goal
5.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brighton Brighton 35 matches
Chelsea Chelsea 47 matches
Brighton Statistic Chelsea
13 Wins 22
11 Draws 10
11 Losses 15
47 Goals For 92
43 Goals Against 63
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
21 BTTS Yes 28
29 Over 1.5 40
17 Over 2.5 33
6 Over 3.5 20
8 Clean Sheets 14
8 Failed To Score 7
4.4 Shots On Goal 5.3
12.89 Total Shots 14.51
4.6 Corners 6.11
52.5% Ball Possession 58.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Chelsea seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Chelsea arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chelsea. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Brighton Analysis

Brighton sit 9 with 47 points after 33 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, while the 43:37 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Welbeck (12 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), Georginio Rutter (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), Jan Paul van Hecke (3 assists), Y. Ayari (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Tzimas, A. Webster, D. Gomez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 48 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 53:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Colwill, R. James, F. Jorgensen, M. Mudryk unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brighton won 6 times, Chelsea won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:23 from Brighton's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Brighton 4-2-3-1 / Chelsea 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Brighton 5, Chelsea 7
H2H summary: Brighton wins 6, draws 3, Chelsea wins 6
Stats
Brighton Brighton
Chelsea Chelsea
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 5
15 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 4
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Goal 0
4 Shots off Goal 2
2 Blocked Shots 4
13 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
532 Total passes 475
456 Passes accurate 400
2.14 expected_goals 0.37
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Brighton
Formation
Chelsea
B. Verbruggen
B. Verbruggen
M. Wieffer
M. Wieffer
J. P. van Hecke
J. P. van Hecke
O. Boscagli
O. Boscagli
F. Kadioglu
F. Kadioglu
P. Gross
P. Gross
C. Baleba
C. Baleba
Y. Minteh
Y. Minteh
J. Hinshelwood
J. Hinshelwood
K. Mitoma
K. Mitoma
G. Rutter
🎯
G. Rutter
R. Sanchez
R. Sanchez
M. Gusto
M. Gusto
W. Fofana
W. Fofana
T. Chalobah
T. Chalobah
J. Hato
J. Hato
M. Cucurella
M. Cucurella
P. Neto
P. Neto
R. Lavia
R. Lavia
M. Caicedo
M. Caicedo
E. Fernandez
E. Fernandez
L. Delap
L. Delap
Brighton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Verbruggen
G
27
M. Wieffer
↓ 46'
D
6
J. P. van Hecke
D
21
O. Boscagli
D
24
F. Kadioglu
⚽ 3'
D
30
P. Gross
M
17
C. Baleba
M
11
Y. Minteh
↓ 77' 🟨 58'
M
13
J. Hinshelwood
⚽ 56' ↓ 90+2'
M
22
K. Mitoma
↓ 82'
M
10
G. Rutter
🎯 56' ↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
23
J. Steele
G
18
D. Welbeck
⚽ 90' ↑ 83'
F
34
J. Veltman
↑ 46'
D
5
L. Dunk
D
3
Igor
D
33
M. O'Riley
↑ 90+2'
M
26
Y. Ayari
↑ 82'
M
19
C. Kostoulas
F
29
M. De Cuyper
🎯 90' ↑ 77'
D
Chelsea 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
R. Sanchez
G
27
M. Gusto
↓ 90+2'
D
29
W. Fofana
↓ 46' 🟨 45+1'
D
23
T. Chalobah
D
21
J. Hato
D
3
M. Cucurella
D
7
P. Neto
M
45
R. Lavia
↓ 73'
M
25
M. Caicedo
M
8
E. Fernandez
M
9
L. Delap
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
28
T. Sharman-Lowe
G
49
A. Garnacho
↑ 46'
F
17
Andrey Santos
M
19
M. Sarr
D
38
M. Guiu
↑ 72'
F
4
T. Adarabioyo
D
14
D. Essugo
↑ 73'
M
34
J. Acheampong
↑ 90+2'
D
55
J. Derry
F
Last matches: Brighton
24.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Leeds
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
1
3
L
18.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
0
W
14.02.26
FA
Brighton
Liverpool
0
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Everton
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
2
L
19.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
Last matches: Chelsea
24.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Tottenham
2
1
W
16.05.26
FA
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Liverpool
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
26.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Leeds
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
3
L
04.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Port Vale
7
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
0
3
L
17.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
0
1
L
11.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
2
5
L
07.03.26
FA
Chelsea
Wrexham
4
2
W
04.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
4
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
13.02.26
FA
Chelsea
Hull City
4
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
1
W
H2H: Brighton vs Chelsea
21.04.26
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
27.09.25
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
1
3
W
14.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
08.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
2
1
W
28.09.24
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
4
2
L
15.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
2
L
03.12.23
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
3
2
L
27.09.23
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
1
0
L
22.07.23
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
4
3
L
15.04.23
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
1
2
W
29.10.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
4
1
W
18.01.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
1
D
29.12.21
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
1
1
D
20.04.21
H2H
Chelsea
Brighton
0
0
D
14.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
3
L
Last matches: Brighton
24.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
08.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Everton
1
1
D
19.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
0
0
D
07.12.25
Pre
Brighton
West Ham
1
1
D
03.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
3
4
L
22.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Leeds
3
0
W
18.10.25
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
31.08.25
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
2
1
W
16.08.25
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
1
D
H2H at home: Brighton
21.04.26
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
14.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
08.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
2
1
W
15.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
2
L
29.10.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
4
1
W
18.01.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
3
L
Last matches: Chelsea
24.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Liverpool
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
0
3
L
11.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
2
5
L
07.03.26
FA
Chelsea
Wrexham
4
2
W
04.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
4
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
2
L
13.02.26
FA
Chelsea
Hull City
4
0
W
07.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Chelsea
Napoli
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
Crystal Palace
3
1
W
10.01.26
FA
Chelsea
Charlton
5
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
Fulham
1
2
L
04.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
2
2
D
09.12.25
UEF
Chelsea
Atalanta
1
2
L
06.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
1
3
L
22.11.25
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
2
0
W
05.11.25
UEF
Chelsea
Qarabag
2
2
D
H2H away: Chelsea
21.04.26
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
L
14.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
L
08.02.25
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
2
1
L
15.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
2
W
29.10.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
4
1
L
18.01.22
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Chelsea
1
3
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L

Missing Players

Brighton 5 missing
-
S. Tzimas
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Webster
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Gomez
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Milner
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
S. March
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Chelsea 7 missing
-
L. Colwill
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. James
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
F. Jorgensen
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
M. Mudryk
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
J. Gittens
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Unknown Player
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Joao Pedro
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT