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MACEDONIA › FIRST LEAGUE
17.10.2026 12:00

Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds 5.06
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.88
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
5.06 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.88 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
9.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Bregalnica Štip Win 62.3%
Draw 4.5%
Vardar Skopje Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bregalnica Štip2.14
Vardar Skopje1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bregalnica Štip Bregalnica Štip
WWDLW
31 GF / 18 GA
Vardar Skopje Vardar Skopje
WLDWL
34 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
2.38
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
4
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bregalnica Štip Bregalnica Štip 13 matches
Vardar Skopje Vardar Skopje 22 matches
Bregalnica Štip Statistic Vardar Skopje
7 Wins 8
1 Draws 5
5 Losses 9
31 Goals For 34
18 Goals Against 39
2.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
4 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 2
0 Total Shots 3.75
0 Corners 2.25
0% Ball Possession 23.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Vardar Skopje's more proactive style and Bregalnica Štip's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vardar Skopje. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vardar Skopje having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Bregalnica Štip Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Bregalnica Štip have collected 10 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 11:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vardar Skopje Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 14 points from 8 games, Vardar Skopje bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 14:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Bregalnica Štip won 0 times, Vardar Skopje won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:18 from Bregalnica Štip's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
H2H summary: Bregalnica Štip wins 0, draws 2, Vardar Skopje wins 6

Standings

First League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 21:9 12 20
D W D L W
2 9 5 2 2 20:7 13 17
L W D W W
3 9 5 2 2 16:9 7 17
W W D W D
4 9 4 4 1 20:7 13 16
W D D W D
5 9 4 2 3 7:10 -3 14
D L W W W
6 9 2 4 3 14:11 3 10
D D D L L
7 9 3 1 5 11:16 -5 10
L W D L L
8 9 2 3 4 7:20 -13 9
D L D L D
9 9 2 1 6 9:26 -17 7
W L D W L
10 9 0 3 6 4:14 -10 3
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL