ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Vitality Stadium
Referee: M. Salisbury
Bournemouth
Match Timeline
Leeds
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Eli Junior Kroupi
Bournemouth
🟨
41'
Álex Jiménez
Bournemouth
🔄
46'
J. Bogle ↔ J. Rodon
Leeds
60'
E. J. Kroupi · Assist: M. Senesi
Bournemouth
🔄
64'
J. Bijol ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
64'
N. Okafor ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
67'
D. Brooks ↔ Rayan
Bournemouth
68'
J. Hill
Leeds
🔄
73'
E. J. Kroupi ↔ T. Adams
Bournemouth
🔄
73'
R. Christie ↔ A. Adli
Bournemouth
🔄
84'
B. Aaronson ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
85'
Rayan · Assist: T. Adams
Bournemouth
🔄
89'
A. Tanaka ↔ J. Piroe
Leeds
🟨
90+5'
Evanilson
Bournemouth
VAR
90+2'
Evanilson
Bournemouth
🔄
90+1'
M. Tavernier ↔ A. Toth
Bournemouth
90'
S. Longstaff
Leeds

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
67.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Bournemouth Win 47.3%
Draw 18.3%
Leeds Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bournemouth1.49
Leeds1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bournemouth Bournemouth
WWDLW
52 GF / 52 GA
Leeds Leeds
WLDWL
51 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
23
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
21
4.91
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bournemouth Bournemouth 34 matches
Leeds Leeds 37 matches
Bournemouth Statistic Leeds
11 Wins 11
16 Draws 14
7 Losses 12
52 Goals For 51
52 Goals Against 53
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
23 BTTS Yes 22
26 Over 1.5 28
20 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 11
4.91 Shots On Goal 4.32
14 Total Shots 13.41
5.47 Corners 4.78
49.8% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Leeds. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bournemouth expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leeds in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leeds having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Bournemouth Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Bournemouth have collected 48 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 15 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 48:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Semenyo (15 goals), Eli Junior Kroupi (10 goals), Evanilson (6 goals), with creative support from A. Semenyo (4 assists), M. Tavernier (4 assists), M. Senesi (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with L. Cook, J. Kluivert, J. Soler unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Leeds Analysis

With 39 points from 33 games and a place of 15, Leeds still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 37:48, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), Noah Okafor (7 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. James, A. Stach unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Bournemouth won 2 times, Leeds won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Bournemouth's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 / Leeds 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 2
H2H summary: Bournemouth wins 2, draws 2, Leeds wins 4
Stats
Bournemouth Bournemouth
Leeds Leeds
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
12 Corner Kicks 1
6 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 10
5 Shots outsidebox 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
473 Total passes 315
378 Passes accurate 236
1.65 expected_goals 0.81
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bournemouth
Formation
Leeds
D. Petrovic
D. Petrovic
A. Jimenez
A. Jimenez
J. Hill
J. Hill
M. Senesi
🎯
M. Senesi
A. Truffert
A. Truffert
A. Scott
A. Scott
R. Christie
R. Christie
D. Brooks
D. Brooks
E. J. Kroupi
E. J. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Evanilson
K. Darlow
K. Darlow
J. Justin
J. Justin
J. Bijol
J. Bijol
P. Struijk
P. Struijk
J. Bogle
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
G. Gudmundsson
B. Aaronson
B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. Calvert-Lewin
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
D. Petrovic
G
20
A. Jimenez
🟨 41'
D
23
J. Hill
⚽ 68'
D
5
M. Senesi
🎯 60'
D
3
A. Truffert
D
8
A. Scott
M
10
R. Christie
↓ 73'
M
7
D. Brooks
↓ 67'
M
22
E. J. Kroupi
⚽ 60' ↓ 73' 🟨 25'
M
16
M. Tavernier
↓ 90+1'
M
9
Evanilson
🟨 90+5'
F
Substitutes
29
C. Mandas
G
15
A. Smith
D
26
E. Unal
F
12
T. Adams
🎯 85' ↑ 73'
M
18
B. Diakite
D
21
A. Adli
↑ 73'
F
11
B. Doak
F
27
A. Toth
↑ 90+1'
M
37
Rayan
⚽ 85' ↑ 67'
F
Leeds 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
26
K. Darlow
G
24
J. Justin
D
15
J. Bijol
↓ 64'
D
5
P. Struijk
D
2
J. Bogle
↓ 46'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
22
A. Tanaka
↓ 89'
M
3
G. Gudmundsson
M
11
B. Aaronson
↓ 84'
F
19
N. Okafor
↓ 64'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
Substitutes
1
Lucas Perri
G
7
D. James
M
23
S. Bornauw
D
6
J. Rodon
↑ 46'
D
14
L. Nmecha
↑ 64'
F
8
S. Longstaff
⚽ 90' ↑ 84'
M
10
J. Piroe
↑ 89'
F
29
W. Gnonto
↑ 64'
F
40
F. Buonanotte
M
Last matches: Bournemouth
24.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
19.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Manchester City
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Fulham
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Newcastle
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Arsenal
2
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Manchester United
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Burnley
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Brentford
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Sunderland
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
West Ham
0
0
D
10.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Everton
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Wolves
2
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Liverpool
3
2
W
19.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Brighton
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Bournemouth
Newcastle
2
2
D
07.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Tottenham
3
2
W
03.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Arsenal
2
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Chelsea
2
2
D
Last matches: Leeds
24.05.26
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
11.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
26.04.26
FA
Leeds
Chelsea
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
13.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
2
1
W
05.04.26
FA
Leeds
West Ham
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Leeds
Birmingham
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
26.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
H2H: Bournemouth vs Leeds
22.04.26
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
2
2
D
27.09.25
H2H
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
30.04.23
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
W
05.11.22
H2H
Leeds
Bournemouth
4
3
L
20.01.15
H2H
Leeds
Bournemouth
1
0
L
16.09.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
1
3
L
25.03.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
W
01.10.13
H2H
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
1
L
Last matches: Bournemouth
19.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Manchester City
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Manchester United
2
2
D
03.03.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Brentford
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Sunderland
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Liverpool
3
2
W
07.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Tottenham
3
2
W
03.01.26
Pre
Bournemouth
Arsenal
2
3
L
20.12.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Burnley
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Chelsea
0
0
D
02.12.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Everton
0
1
L
22.11.25
Pre
Bournemouth
West Ham
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
03.10.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Fulham
3
1
W
21.09.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Newcastle
0
0
D
13.09.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Brighton
2
1
W
23.08.25
Pre
Bournemouth
Wolves
1
0
W
H2H at home: Bournemouth
22.04.26
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
2
2
D
30.04.23
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
W
16.09.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
1
3
L
25.03.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
W
Last matches: Leeds
24.05.26
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
0
3
L
11.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
1
D
26.04.26
FA
Leeds
Chelsea
0
1
L
13.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
2
1
W
05.04.26
FA
Leeds
West Ham
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Leeds
Birmingham
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
2
2
D
26.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Leeds
Derby
3
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Newcastle
3
4
L
01.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Liverpool
0
0
D
28.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
1
1
D
14.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
2
3
L
09.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
01.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
0
2
L
20.09.25
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
1
W
H2H away: Leeds
22.04.26
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
2
2
D
30.04.23
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
L
16.09.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
1
3
W
25.03.14
H2H
Bournemouth
Leeds
4
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Away
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L

Missing Players

Bournemouth 3 missing
-
L. Cook
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Kluivert
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Soler
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
Leeds 2 missing
-
D. James
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Stach
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT