ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
22.04.2026 19:00
Vitality Stadium
Referee: M. Salisbury
Bournemouth
Match Timeline
Leeds
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Eli Junior Kroupi
Bournemouth
🟨
41'
Álex Jiménez
Bournemouth
🔄
46'
J. Bogle ↔ J. Rodon
Leeds
60'
E. J. Kroupi · Assist: M. Senesi
Bournemouth
🔄
64'
J. Bijol ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
64'
N. Okafor ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
67'
D. Brooks ↔ Rayan
Bournemouth
68'
J. Hill
Leeds
🔄
73'
E. J. Kroupi ↔ T. Adams
Bournemouth
🔄
73'
R. Christie ↔ A. Adli
Bournemouth
🔄
84'
B. Aaronson ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
85'
Rayan · Assist: T. Adams
Bournemouth
🔄
89'
A. Tanaka ↔ J. Piroe
Leeds
🟨
90+5'
Evanilson
Bournemouth
VAR
90+2'
Evanilson
Bournemouth
🔄
90+1'
M. Tavernier ↔ A. Toth
Bournemouth
90'
S. Longstaff
Leeds

Bournemouth vs Leeds Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
67.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Bournemouth Win 47.3%
Draw 18.3%
Leeds Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bournemouth1.49
Leeds1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bournemouth Bournemouth
WWDLW
52 GF / 52 GA
Leeds Leeds
WLDWL
51 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
23
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
21
4.91
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bournemouth Bournemouth 34 matches
Leeds Leeds 37 matches
Bournemouth Statistic Leeds
11 Wins 11
16 Draws 14
7 Losses 12
52 Goals For 51
52 Goals Against 53
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
23 BTTS Yes 22
26 Over 1.5 28
20 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 11
4.91 Shots On Goal 4.32
14 Total Shots 13.41
5.47 Corners 4.78
49.8% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Leeds. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bournemouth expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leeds in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leeds having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Bournemouth Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Bournemouth have collected 48 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 15 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 48:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Semenyo (15 goals), Eli Junior Kroupi (10 goals), Evanilson (6 goals), with creative support from A. Semenyo (4 assists), M. Tavernier (4 assists), M. Senesi (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with L. Cook, J. Kluivert, J. Soler unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Leeds Analysis

With 39 points from 33 games and a place of 15, Leeds still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 37:48, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), Noah Okafor (7 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. James, A. Stach unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Bournemouth won 2 times, Leeds won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Bournemouth's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 / Leeds 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 2
H2H summary: Bournemouth wins 2, draws 2, Leeds wins 4

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Away
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship