BRAZIL SERIE A
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Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.84
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.84
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
1.84
BTTS Yes
88%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.84
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.4%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 65.1%
Draw 5.5%
Gremio Win 29.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.44
Gremio1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
28 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
16
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
11
4.96
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 24 matches
Gremio Gremio 23 matches
Botafogo Statistic Gremio
9 Wins 7
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
37 Goals For 28
35 Goals Against 30
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
16 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 6
4.96 Shots On Goal 3.7
12.88 Total Shots 11.25
3.92 Corners 4.15
49.3% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Botafogo's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gremio arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Gremio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Botafogo have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 33:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Gremio Analysis

With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 21:25, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 5 times, Gremio won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:30 from Botafogo's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-4-2 / Gremio 4-3-3
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 5, draws 2, Gremio wins 7
Last matches: Botafogo
26.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
Last matches: Gremio
26.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Mirassol
1
2
L
12.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
H2H: Botafogo vs Gremio
29.07.26
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
05.02.26
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
L
22.11.25
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
2
W
24.09.25
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
1
1
D
29.09.24
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
16.06.24
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
1
2
W
09.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
4
L
09.07.23
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
0
2
W
08.02.21
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
5
L
14.10.20
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
3
1
L
27.10.19
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
3
0
L
12.06.19
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
1
L
01.09.18
H2H
Gremio
Botafogo
4
0
L
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
1
W
13.08.17
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
1
0
W
Last matches: Botafogo
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
30.01.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo
29.07.26
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
22.11.25
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
2
W
29.09.24
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
09.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
4
L
08.02.21
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
5
L
12.06.19
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
1
L
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
1
W
13.08.17
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
1
0
W
Last matches: Gremio
17.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Mirassol
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H away: Gremio
29.07.26
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
22.11.25
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
2
L
29.09.24
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
0
D
09.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
3
4
W
08.02.21
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
5
W
12.06.19
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
0
1
W
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
2
1
L
13.08.17
H2H
Botafogo
Gremio
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.17
Draw 3.73
Home 1.84
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.72
Draw 2.34
Home 2.41
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.26
Over 2.0 1.40
Over 2.25 1.62
Over 2.5 1.84
Over 2.75 2.06
Over 3.0 2.43
Over 3.5 3.05
Over 4.5 5.79
Under 1.5 3.84
Under 2.0 2.99
Under 2.25 2.33
Under 2.5 2.00
Under 2.75 1.78
Under 3.0 1.57
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 4.5 1.14
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 3.60
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.50
Home 2.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.19
Draw 3.64
Home 1.74
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.45
Draw 2.07
Home 2.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.85
Draw 2.48
Home 2.02
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.36
Over 2.0 1.46
Over 2.25 1.78
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.20
Over 3.0 2.69
Over 3.25 2.98
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 3.75 4.14
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.19
Over 4.5 6.60
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 0.75 8.30
Under 1.0 7.60
Under 1.25 4.34
Under 1.5 3.18
Under 1.75 2.82
Under 2.0 2.46
Under 2.25 2.08
Under 2.5 1.83
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.80
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.28
Home 2.32
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.70
Home 2.07
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 2.0 1.37
Over 2.25 1.58
Over 2.5 1.79
Over 2.75 2.02
Over 3.0 2.40
Over 3.25 2.70
Over 3.5 3.05
Over 3.75 3.70
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 12.00
Under 0.5 11.50
Under 1.5 3.95
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.33
Under 2.5 1.98
Under 2.75 1.78
Under 3.0 1.56
Under 3.25 1.45
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 3.75 1.27
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.02

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
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