Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
65.1%
|
1.84 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
88%
|
1.95 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
82.2%
|
1.84 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
79.4%
|
1.28 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.75 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Botafogo
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Botafogo
24 matches
Gremio
23 matches
| Botafogo | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 7 |
| 6 | Draws | 7 |
| 9 | Losses | 9 |
| 37 | Goals For | 28 |
| 35 | Goals Against | 30 |
| 1.54 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.22 |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.3 |
| 16 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 15 | Over 2.5 | 11 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.96 | Shots On Goal | 3.7 |
| 12.88 | Total Shots | 11.25 |
| 3.92 | Corners | 4.15 |
| 49.3% | Ball Possession | 49.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Botafogo's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gremio arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Gremio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio.
From their first 18 matches, Botafogo have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 33:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 21:25, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 5 times, Gremio won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:30 from Botafogo's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
Vitoria
Botafogo
Santos
Botafogo
Bahia
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
Corinthians
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
Remo
Botafogo
Internacional
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
Botafogo
Coritiba
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
Mirassol
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
Botafogo
Palmeiras
Botafogo
Flamengo
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
Gremio
Fluminense
Gremio
Mirassol
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Coritiba
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
Vitoria
Botafogo
Santos
Botafogo
Corinthians
Botafogo
Remo
Botafogo
Internacional
Botafogo
Coritiba
Botafogo
Mirassol
Botafogo
Flamengo
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Mirassol
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Fluminense
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38:16 | 22 | 47 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37:18 | 19 | 39 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28:19 | 9 | 37 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30:25 | 5 | 34 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 32 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26:20 | 6 | 31 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27:30 | -3 | 30 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 |
Botafogo
Home
|
20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34:32 | 2 | 29 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
| 9 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 29 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:25 | 0 | 28 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25:28 | -3 | 27 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25:23 | 2 | 26 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22:31 | -9 | 26 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23:27 | -4 | 23 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29:33 | -4 | 22 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23:27 | -4 | 22 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 |
Gremio
Away
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22:26 | -4 | 22 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
| 18 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23:31 | -8 | 21 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24:34 | -10 | 21 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 20 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19:41 | -22 | 10 |
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