20.04.2026 20:00
Parque Artigas
Referee: H. Heras
Boston River
Match Timeline
Cerro Largo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Lautaro Vazquez
Boston River
🟨
11'
Axel Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🔄
17'
L. Vazquez ↔ J. Acosta
Boston River
🟨
21'
Mateo Rivero
Boston River
🔄
46'
M. Rivero ↔ G. Ramirez
Boston River
🟨
49'
Santiago Marcel
Cerro Largo
🟨
58'
Gonzalo Reyna
Boston River
⚽
83'
F. Bonfiglio
Boston River
🔄
84'
F. Bonfiglio ↔ M. Hornos
Boston River
🔄
84'
F. Perez ↔ A. Gonzalez
Boston River
🔄
89'
M. Garcia ↔ E. Jourdan
Cerro Largo
🔄
89'
A. Pandiani ↔ M. Anasco
Cerro Largo
🔄
89'
D. Daguerre ↔ F. Sellecchia
Cerro Largo

Boston River vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 35.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
35.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Boston River Win 29.8%
Draw 35.6%
Cerro Largo Win 34.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boston River1
Cerro Largo1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boston River Boston River
WWDLW
9 GF / 13 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boston River Boston River 11 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 11 matches
Boston River Statistic Cerro Largo
3 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
6 Losses 5
9 Goals For 13
13 Goals Against 14
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
4 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro Largo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boston River expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Cerro Largo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Boston River Analysis

Boston River are currently 13 in the standings with 11 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 9:13 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Bonfiglio (2 goals), L. Suhr (2 goals), Alexander González (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Largo Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Cerro Largo have collected 14 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 13:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (3 goals), D. Daguerre (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Boston River won 7 times, Cerro Largo won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from Boston River's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (70.2%)
Predicted formations: Boston River 4-5-1 / Cerro Largo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Boston River wins 7, draws 4, Cerro Largo wins 4

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 5 6 48:24 24 58
W W W W L
2 30 16 7 7 46:27 19 55
W W L W L
3 29 16 5 8 51:34 17 53
L W W W W
4 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
L D W L W
5 30 15 4 11 45:38 7 49
W W D D W
6 30 12 10 8 39:28 11 46
W D L W D
7 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
8 30 10 8 12 32:39 -7 38
L L D D L
9 30 9 9 12 35:39 -4 36
D W D D W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 30 8 9 13 28:34 -6 33
L L D L D
12 30 9 6 15 23:43 -20 33
D L W W D
13 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
14 30 8 6 16 29:42 -13 30
L L L L D
15 30 8 4 18 25:43 -18 28
W W L W W
16 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
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