ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Referee: C. Brook
Bolton
Match Timeline
Luton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Max Conway
Bolton
15'
J. Clark
Luton
20'
J. Osei-Tutu · Assist: A. Cozier-Duberry
Bolton
🟨
35'
Liam Walsh
Luton
45'
I. Cissoko · Assist: R. Rodrigues
Bolton
🟨
60'
Ibrahim Cissoko
Bolton
🔄
61'
J. Richards ↔ S. Morris
Luton
62'
H. Odoffin · Assist: L. Walsh
Luton
🟨
63'
Chris Forino
Bolton
🟨
63'
Kasey Palmer
Luton
🔄
73'
I. Cissoko ↔ T. Gale
Bolton
🔄
73'
E. Lawrence ↔ G. Kodua
Luton
🟨
78'
Josh Sheehan
Bolton
🔄
79'
R. Rodrigues ↔ K. Dempsey
Bolton
🔄
81'
K. Palmer ↔ D. van den Berg
Luton
🔄
81'
M. Andersen ↔ A. Al Hamadi
Luton
🔄
86'
M. Conway ↔ C. Christie
Bolton
🔄
86'
M. Burstow ↔ J. McAtee
Bolton
🟨
88'
Davy van den Berg
Luton
90'
S. Morris
Luton

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bolton Win 46.3%
Draw 9.4%
Luton Win 44.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bolton1.4
Luton1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bolton Bolton
WWDLW
70 GF / 54 GA
Luton Luton
WLDWL
71 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
29
BTTS Yes
26
23
Over 2.5
26
4.7
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bolton Bolton 47 matches
Luton Luton 47 matches
Bolton Statistic Luton
20 Wins 21
18 Draws 12
9 Losses 14
70 Goals For 71
54 Goals Against 59
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
29 BTTS Yes 26
37 Over 1.5 36
23 Over 2.5 26
12 Over 3.5 14
11 Clean Sheets 13
11 Failed To Score 9
4.7 Shots On Goal 3.96
15.81 Total Shots 12.85
6.06 Corners 5.96
56.7% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Luton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Luton. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Bolton Analysis

Bolton come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 75 points from 45 matches. The record of 19 wins, 18 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 68:49 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Burstow (12 goals), S. Dalby (10 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (8 goals), with creative support from A. Cozier-Duberry (9 assists), M. Burstow (5 assists), S. Dalby (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 13 wins, 8 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Luton Analysis

Luton are currently 7 in the standings with 71 points from 45 matches. Their overall return of 20 wins, 11 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 65:54 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Clark (11 goals), G. Kodua (9 goals), Kasey Palmer (8 goals), with creative support from L. Walsh (6 assists), G. Saville (5 assists), E. Lawrence (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Bolton won 0 times, Luton won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Bolton's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Bolton 4-2-3-1 / Luton 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bolton wins 0, draws 2, Luton wins 2
Stats
Bolton Bolton
Luton Luton
Shots on Goal
12
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 3
17 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 2
56% Ball Possession 44%
24 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 6
6 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 10
9 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 10
417 Total passes 318
348 Passes accurate 247
2.79 expected_goals 3.59
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bolton
Formation
Luton
J. Bonham
J. Bonham
J. Osei-Tutu
J. Osei-Tutu
E. Toal
E. Toal
C. Forino-Joseph
C. Forino-Joseph
M. Conway
M. Conway
J. Sheehan
J. Sheehan
R. Rodrigues
🎯
R. Rodrigues
A. Cozier-Duberry
🎯
A. Cozier-Duberry
J. Kenny
J. Kenny
I. Cissoko
I. Cissoko
M. Burstow
M. Burstow
J. Keeley
J. Keeley
I. Jones
I. Jones
H. Odoffin
H. Odoffin
M. Andersen
M. Andersen
K. Naismith
K. Naismith
L. Walsh
🎯
L. Walsh
J. Richards
J. Richards
J. Clark
J. Clark
K. Palmer
K. Palmer
E. Lawrence
E. Lawrence
N. Wells
N. Wells
Bolton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Bonham
G
14
J. Osei-Tutu
⚽ 20'
D
18
E. Toal
D
3
C. Forino-Joseph
🟨 63'
D
25
M. Conway
↓ 86' 🟨 13'
D
8
J. Sheehan
🟨 78'
M
27
R. Rodrigues
🎯 45' ↓ 79'
M
19
A. Cozier-Duberry
🎯 20'
M
9
J. Kenny
M
20
I. Cissoko
⚽ 45' ↓ 73' 🟨 60'
M
48
M. Burstow
↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
23
D. Harrington
G
4
X. Simons
M
15
R. Apter
M
29
C. Christie
↑ 86'
D
22
K. Dempsey
↑ 79'
M
45
J. McAtee
↑ 86'
F
11
T. Gale
↑ 73'
F
Luton 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
24
J. Keeley
G
25
I. Jones
D
16
H. Odoffin
⚽ 62'
D
5
M. Andersen
↓ 81'
D
3
K. Naismith
D
8
L. Walsh
🎯 62' 🟨 35'
M
27
J. Richards
↓ 61'
M
18
J. Clark
⚽ 15'
M
54
K. Palmer
↓ 81' 🟨 63'
M
32
E. Lawrence
↓ 73'
M
21
N. Wells
F
Substitutes
1
J. Shea
G
23
G. Saville
M
14
S. Morris
⚽ 90' ↑ 61'
F
17
N. Lonwijk
D
6
D. van den Berg
↑ 81' 🟨 88'
M
12
A. Al Hamadi
↑ 81'
F
30
G. Kodua
↑ 73'
F
Last matches: Bolton
24.05.26
Lea
Bolton
Stockport County
4
1
W
14.05.26
Lea
Bolton
Bradford
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lea
Bolton
Bradford
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Bradford
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Huddersfield
3
3
D
14.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Stevenage
5
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Cardiff
0
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Stockport County
2
2
D
03.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Plymouth
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Port Vale
0
1
L
17.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Doncaster
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Rotherham
2
2
D
07.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Wycombe
3
2
W
28.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Exeter City
5
1
W
21.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Blackpool
2
2
D
17.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Reading
1
1
D
14.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Lincoln
1
1
D
07.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Barnsley
3
2
W
31.01.26
Lea
Bolton
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Bolton
Burton Albion
2
1
W
Last matches: Luton
25.04.26
Lea
Luton
Barnsley
2
1
W
21.04.26
Lea
Luton
Rotherham
2
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Luton
Mansfield Town
2
2
D
15.04.26
Lea
Luton
Northampton
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
3
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Luton
Peterborough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lea
Luton
Stockport County
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lea
Luton
Exeter City
3
2
W
14.03.26
Lea
Luton
Wycombe
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Luton
Doncaster
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Luton
Reading
2
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Luton
Port Vale
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Luton
Burton Albion
1
1
D
18.02.26
Lea
Luton
Wigan
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Luton
Cardiff
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lea
Luton
Bradford
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Luton
Blackpool
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Luton
Huddersfield
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Luton
Plymouth
0
1
L
17.01.26
Lea
Luton
Lincoln
2
2
D
H2H: Bolton vs Luton
02.05.26
H2H
Bolton
Luton
2
3
L
29.11.25
H2H
Luton
Bolton
1
1
D
16.01.24
H2H
Bolton
Luton
1
2
L
07.01.24
H2H
Luton
Bolton
0
0
D
Last matches: Bolton
24.05.26
Lea
Bolton
Stockport County
4
1
W
09.05.26
Lea
Bolton
Bradford
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Huddersfield
3
3
D
14.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Stevenage
5
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Bolton
Stockport County
2
2
D
17.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Doncaster
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lea
Bolton
Wycombe
3
2
W
21.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Blackpool
2
2
D
07.02.26
Lea
Bolton
Barnsley
3
2
W
27.01.26
Lea
Bolton
Burton Albion
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lea
Bolton
Leyton Orient
2
1
W
04.01.26
Lea
Bolton
Northampton
0
0
D
29.12.25
Lea
Bolton
Mansfield Town
0
1
L
26.12.25
Lea
Bolton
Rotherham
2
1
W
13.12.25
Lea
Bolton
Exeter City
2
1
W
22.11.25
Lea
Bolton
Bradford
0
0
D
08.11.25
Lea
Bolton
Port Vale
4
0
W
01.11.25
FA
Bolton
Huddersfield
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Bolton
Cardiff
1
0
W
04.10.25
Lea
Bolton
Peterborough
2
1
W
H2H at home: Bolton
02.05.26
H2H
Bolton
Luton
2
3
L
16.01.24
H2H
Bolton
Luton
1
2
L
Last matches: Luton
21.04.26
Lea
Luton
Rotherham
2
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Luton
Mansfield Town
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Luton
Wycombe
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Luton
Doncaster
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Luton
Port Vale
1
1
D
18.02.26
Lea
Luton
Wigan
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Luton
Cardiff
1
3
L
27.01.26
Lea
Luton
Huddersfield
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Luton
Plymouth
0
1
L
01.01.26
Lea
Luton
Exeter City
0
1
L
18.12.25
Lea
Luton
Reading
2
3
L
09.12.25
Lea
Luton
Leyton Orient
1
1
D
06.12.25
FA
Luton
Fleetwood Town
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Luton
Barnsley
0
5
L
08.11.25
Lea
Luton
Stockport County
3
0
W
25.10.25
Lea
Luton
Northampton
1
0
W
04.10.25
Lea
Luton
Stevenage
0
2
L
30.09.25
Lea
Luton
Blackpool
2
2
D
20.09.25
Lea
Luton
Lincoln
1
3
L
H2H away: Luton
02.05.26
H2H
Bolton
Luton
2
3
W
16.01.24
H2H
Bolton
Luton
1
2
W

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7
Luton Away
46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two