05.08.2026 22:00
Alberto Jose Armando
Referee: Nazareno Arasa, Argentina
Boca Juniors
Match Timeline
Estudiantes L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
S. Ascacibar · Assist: L. Blanco
Boca Juniors
🟨
56'
Ezequiel Piovi
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
60'
J. Burgos ↔ E. Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
60'
Perez Fabricio ↔ B. Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
67'
Miguel Merentiel ↔ S. Villa
Boca Juniors
🔄
68'
T. Palacios ↔ Gabriel Neves
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
68'
A. Castro ↔ F. Farias
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
74'
Leonel Flores
Boca Juniors
🟨
78'
Gabriel Neves
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
80'
T. Aranda ↔ A. Velasco
Boca Juniors
🔄
85'
L. Flores ↔ K. Zenon
Boca Juniors
🔄
85'
L. Paredes ↔ C. Rey Domenech
Boca Juniors
🔄
86'
L. Piovi ↔ L. Alario
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
90'
Gastón Benedetti
Estudiantes L.P.

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 62.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
62.5%
-
BTTS No
71.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Boca Juniors Win 37.5%
Draw 21.3%
Estudiantes L.P. Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boca Juniors1
Estudiantes L.P.1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WWDLW
39 GF / 23 GA
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WLDWL
35 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.3
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
12
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
8
4.68
Shots on Goal
5.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 30 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 27 matches
Boca Juniors Statistic Estudiantes L.P.
14 Wins 14
9 Draws 7
7 Losses 6
39 Goals For 35
23 Goals Against 15
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
12 BTTS Yes 8
20 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 2
14 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 9
4.68 Shots On Goal 5.04
13.48 Total Shots 13.92
5.4 Corners 4.44
59.6% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Estudiantes L.P.. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boca Juniors expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Estudiantes L.P. in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estudiantes L.P. having the stronger overall control.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 30 points from 16 games, Boca Juniors bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 22:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Milton Giménez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), Alan Velasco (2 goals), with creative support from Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Tomás Aranda (2 assists), Exequiel Zeballos (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 31 points from 16 matches. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 19:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Adolfo Gaich (3 goals), Alexis Castro (2 goals), Mikel Amondarain (1 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (2 assists), Mikel Amondarain (1 assists), Brian Aguirre (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Boca Juniors won 6 times, Estudiantes L.P. won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Boca Juniors's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.7%)
Predicted formations: Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1 / Estudiantes L.P. 4-4-2
H2H summary: Boca Juniors wins 6, draws 3, Estudiantes L.P. wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D D L W
Knockout Phase