LATVIA VIRSLIGA
13.09.2026 11:00
Stadions Celtnieks

BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.7%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.7%
1.12
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.47
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
13.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
26.00
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 44.9%
Draw 3.3%
Rīgas FS Win 51.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.02
Rīgas FS1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
41 GF / 48 GA
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
WLDWL
105 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
2.28
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
18
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
26
0
Shots on Goal
0.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 37 matches
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 46 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Rīgas FS
12 Wins 33
8 Draws 8
17 Losses 5
41 Goals For 105
48 Goals Against 41
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.28
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
18 BTTS Yes 23
22 Over 1.5 36
15 Over 2.5 26
10 Over 3.5 18
9 Clean Sheets 20
13 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0.9
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 1
0% Ball Possession 11.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Rīgas FS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 69 points while BFC Daugavpils sit 5 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rīgas FS. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Rīgas FS look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 5 with 37 points from 28 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 69 points after 27 outings. The return of 22 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 68:20, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 0 times, Rīgas FS won 14 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:47 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 0, draws 1, Rīgas FS wins 14

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 22 4 2 68:20 48 70
D W D W W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 29 10 8 11 34:33 1 38
D L D W W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L