LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: A. Kenins
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
46'
K. Wassom ↔ A. Ankrah
Riga
🔄
46'
Caio Ferreira ↔ M. Diop
Riga
🟨
47'
E. Ivanovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
62'
E. Ivanovs ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
73'
R. Aouani ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
82'
R. Ndjiki ↔ D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
85'
S. Oulad M'Hand ↔ B. Musah
Riga
🔄
85'
O. Galo ↔ Iago Siqueira
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.6%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 17.5%
Draw 3.9%
Riga Win 78.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.07
Riga2.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
28 GF / 40 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
74 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
2.85
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
14
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
23
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 27 matches
Riga Riga 26 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Riga
8 Wins 19
5 Draws 4
14 Losses 3
28 Goals For 74
40 Goals Against 29
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 2.85
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
14 BTTS Yes 18
16 Over 1.5 25
11 Over 2.5 23
7 Over 3.5 15
5 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and BFC Daugavpils's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Riga. Riga look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 45 points while BFC Daugavpils sit 6 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

From their first 18 matches, BFC Daugavpils have collected 20 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 20:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Ndjiki (7 goals), A. Garzha (5 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (4 assists), J. Yakubu (4 assists), G. Mihalcovs (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 45 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 14 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, with a 56:19 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on M. Badamosi (12 goals), D. Lemajic (8 goals), S. Panic (7 goals), with creative support from R. Savalnieks (7 assists), Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), S. Oulad M'Hand (5 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 1 times, Riga won 11 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:28 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / Riga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 1, draws 3, Riga wins 11

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2
Riga Away
26 20 5 1 79:24 55 65
D W W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
5 27 11 4 12 36:39 -3 37
L W W L W
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L