LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
08.05.2026 14:30
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: V. Spasjonnikovs
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Papa
Riga
🟨
45+3'
R. Jurkovskis
Riga
⚽
56'
S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🔄
60'
Reginaldo Ramires ↔ M. Badamosi
Riga
🔄
60'
M. Diop ↔ Caio Ferreira
Riga
🔄
61'
A. Traore ↔ M. Sylla
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
61'
A. Garzha ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
⚽
66'
J. Yakubu · Assist: E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
71'
R. Varslavans ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🟨
86'
Papa
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
89'
R. Ndjiki ↔ D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
90'
Iago Siqueira ↔ K. Wassom
Riga
⚽
90'
S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga

BFC Daugavpils vs Riga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 32.2%
Draw 9.3%
Riga Win 58.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.18
Riga2.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
20 GF / 30 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
47 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
2.76
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
9
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 18 matches
Riga Riga 17 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Riga
6 Wins 11
2 Draws 3
10 Losses 3
20 Goals For 47
30 Goals Against 22
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.76
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
9 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and BFC Daugavpils's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Riga. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Riga look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 23 points while BFC Daugavpils sit 4 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 4 with 14 points from 10 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 13:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Garzha (4 goals), J. Yakubu (3 goals), R. Ndjiki (3 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (3 assists), Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand (3 assists), A. Garzha (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 23 points from 10 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 33:12, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (7 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), J. Ikaunieks (5 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), L. Odisharia (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 1 times, Riga won 11 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:28 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.7%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / Riga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 1, draws 3, Riga wins 11

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2
Riga Away
31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L