LATVIA VIRSLIGA
04.07.2026 13:00
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: A. Anufrijevs
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
FK Liepaja
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
25'
I. Mushindi ↔ E. Rodolphe
FK Liepaja
41'
M. Sylla · Assist: A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
46'
C. Amatkarijo ↔ D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
50'
M. Sylla · Assist: J. Yakubu
BFC Daugavpils
56'
M. Sylla · Assist: Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
63'
L. Strumia ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🔄
63'
Fellipe Vieira ↔ K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🔄
72'
G. Mihalcovs ↔ R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
72'
D. Kivinda ↔ D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
78'
A. Haidara
FK Liepaja
🔄
81'
J. Yakubu ↔ N. Barkovskis
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
82'
A. Haidara ↔ I. Pulis
FK Liepaja
VAR
90+1'
D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
90'
D. Gueye
FK Liepaja

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.7%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 72.7%
Draw 18.8%
FK Liepaja Win 8.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.24
FK Liepaja1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
29 GF / 43 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
44 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
15
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 29 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 29 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic FK Liepaja
8 Wins 12
6 Draws 5
15 Losses 12
29 Goals For 44
43 Goals Against 46
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
15 BTTS Yes 17
17 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 18
8 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 3
10 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FK Liepaja. FK Liepaja arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 20 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 21:25 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja sit 4 with 25 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 23:31 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 4 times, FK Liepaja won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.5%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 4, draws 4, FK Liepaja wins 7

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 30 10 8 12 35:35 0 38
L D L D W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L