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15.10.2026 19:00
Estádio da Luz
Referee: Nikola Dabanovic

Benfica vs Celtic Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.3%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.3%
1.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.43 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.07 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.73 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Benfica Win 64.3%
Draw 3.4%
Celtic Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Benfica2.3
Celtic1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Benfica Benfica
WWDLW
53 GF / 16 GA
Celtic Celtic
WLDWL
26 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2.94
Average Goals Scored
1.73
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
9
14
Over 2.5
9
7.33
Shots on Goal
7.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Benfica Benfica 18 matches
Celtic Celtic 15 matches
Benfica Statistic Celtic
13 Wins 8
2 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
53 Goals For 26
16 Goals Against 20
2.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 9
18 Over 1.5 12
14 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 5
0 Failed To Score 1
7.33 Shots On Goal 7.91
19.87 Total Shots 18.82
7.33 Corners 9
62.5% Ball Possession 60%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Benfica won 1 times, Celtic won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Benfica's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Benfica 4-2-3-1 / Celtic 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Benfica 2, Celtic 6
H2H summary: Benfica wins 1, draws 1, Celtic wins 0

Standings

UEFA Europa League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 1 1 0 0 5:0 5 3
W
2 1 1 0 0 4:0 4 3
W
3 1 1 0 0 4:1 3 3
W
4 1 1 0 0 4:1 3 3
W
5 1 1 0 0 3:0 3 3
W
6 1 1 0 0 3:1 2 3
W
7 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
8 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
9 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
10 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
11 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
12 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
13 1 1 0 0 2:1 1 3
W
14 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
15 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
16 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
17 1 0 1 0 0:0 0 1
D
18 1 0 1 0 0:0 0 1
D
19 1 0 1 0 0:0 0 1
D
20 1 0 1 0 0:0 0 1
D
21 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
22 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
23 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
24 1 0 0 1 1:2 -1 0
L
25 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
26 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
27 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
28 1 0 0 1 1:3 -2 0
L
29 1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
30 1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
31 1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
32 1 0 0 1 1:4 -3 0
L
33 1 0 0 1 1:4 -3 0
L
34 1 0 0 1 0:3 -3 0
L
35 1 0 0 1 0:4 -4 0
L
36 1 0 0 1 0:5 -5 0
L
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)