WORLD UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Allianz Arena
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Bayern München
Match Timeline
Paris Saint Germain
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
O. Dembele · Assist: K. Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
8'
Nuno Mendes
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
33'
Jonathan Tah
Bayern München
🟨
45+3'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
65'
O. Dembele ↔ B. Barcola
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
67'
J. Stanisic ↔ A. Davies
Bayern München
🔄
68'
J. Tah ↔ Kim Min-Jae
Bayern München
🔄
76'
D. Doue ↔ L. Hernandez
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
76'
F. Ruiz ↔ L. Beraldo
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
78'
Luis Díaz
Bayern München
🔄
79'
J. Musiala ↔ N. Jackson
Bayern München
🔄
85'
D. Upamecano ↔ L. Karl
Bayern München
🔄
85'
N. Mendes ↔ S. Mayulu
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
86'
Marquinhos
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
90+7'
Joshua Kimmich
Bayern München
90'
H. Kane · Assist: A. Davies
Bayern München

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 89.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
89.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bayern München Win 47.9%
Draw 5.8%
Paris Saint Germain Win 46.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayern München2.5
Paris Saint Germain1.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bayern München Bayern München
WWDLW
160 GF / 55 GA
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WLDWL
119 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
3.48
Average Goals Scored
2.43
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
33
BTTS Yes
24
44
Over 2.5
33
8.33
Shots on Goal
6.98

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bayern München Bayern München 46 matches
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 49 matches
Bayern München Statistic Paris Saint Germain
38 Wins 33
5 Draws 8
3 Losses 8
160 Goals For 119
55 Goals Against 51
3.48 Avg Goals Scored 2.43
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
33 BTTS Yes 24
46 Over 1.5 40
44 Over 2.5 33
34 Over 3.5 20
13 Clean Sheets 22
0 Failed To Score 4
8.33 Shots On Goal 6.98
19 Total Shots 18.24
6.22 Corners 6.12
65.1% Ball Possession 68.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Bayern München appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain have the edge after taking the first leg 5-4, leaving Bayern München needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Bayern München had more of the ball in the first leg (57% possession compared to 43%). Bayern München were also more accurate in attack, recording 8 shots on target to 5. Bayern München also attempted more passes (504 to 371) and completed 423. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paris Saint Germain. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Bayern München come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Bayern München arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 21 points compared to Paris Saint Germain in 11 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bayern München expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Paris Saint Germain in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Paris Saint Germain having the stronger overall control.

Bayern München Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Bayern München arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 21 points after 8 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 22:8 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on H. Kane (13 goals), L. Diaz (7 goals), M. Olise (5 goals), with creative support from M. Olise (7 assists), S. Gnabry (5 assists), L. Diaz (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Kiala, W. Mike, B. Ndiaye unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain enter this tie with a season profile built on 14 points from 8 matches, placing them 11 in their league. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 21:11, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on K. Kvaratskhelia (10 goals), O. Dembele (6 goals), Vitinha (6 goals), with creative support from A. Hakimi (7 assists), K. Kvaratskhelia (5 assists), D. Doue (4 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Hakimi, Q. Ndjantou, L. Chevalier, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Bayern München 4-2-3-1 / Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Missing players: Bayern München 5, Paris Saint Germain 3

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)