FRANCE LIGUE 2
18.04.2026 18:00
Stade Armand Cesari
Referee: B. Millot
Bastia
Match Timeline
Saint Etienne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
A. Zaouai
Bastia
🟨
8'
Anthony Roncaglia
Bastia
🟨
34'
Augustine Boakye
Saint Etienne
🟨
45+1'
Juan Guevara
Bastia
🔄
53'
I. Cardona ↔ J. Duffus
Saint Etienne
🔄
59'
A. Roncaglia ↔ Z. Ariss
Bastia
🔄
60'
R. Beliandjou ↔ J. Sebas
Bastia
🔄
60'
A. Moueffek ↔ I. Miladinovic
Saint Etienne
🔄
69'
J. Janneh ↔ J. Eickmayer
Bastia
🔄
69'
A. Zaouai ↔ A. Boutrah
Bastia
71'
J. Eickmayer · Assist: F. Tomi
Bastia
🟨
74'
Joshua Duffus
Saint Etienne
🟨
89'
Joachim Eickmayer
Bastia
🟨
90+8'
Noah Zilliox
Bastia
🔄
90+6'
T. Meynadier ↔ N. Zilliox
Bastia

Bastia vs Saint Etienne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
85.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Bastia Win 9.5%
Draw 5.5%
Saint Etienne Win 85.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bastia0.9
Saint Etienne1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bastia Bastia
WWDLW
26 GF / 38 GA
Saint Etienne Saint Etienne
WLDWL
68 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
2.06
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
10
BTTS Yes
17
7
Over 2.5
20
3.68
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bastia Bastia 33 matches
Saint Etienne Saint Etienne 33 matches
Bastia Statistic Saint Etienne
5 Wins 19
13 Draws 6
15 Losses 8
26 Goals For 68
38 Goals Against 35
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
10 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 24
7 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 12
12 Clean Sheets 12
18 Failed To Score 6
3.68 Shots On Goal 4.69
11.48 Total Shots 13
4.19 Corners 4.56
51.6% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Saint Etienne's more proactive style and Bastia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Saint Etienne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Saint Etienne carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 57 points while Bastia sit 18 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bastia expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Saint Etienne in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Saint Etienne having the stronger overall control.

Bastia Analysis

Bastia sit 18 with 21 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 12 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 19:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), A. Boutrah (2 goals), with creative support from A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), Felix Tomi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Saint Etienne Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 57 points from 30 games, Saint Etienne bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 17 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 53:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Z. Davitashvili (13 goals), Lucas Stassin (10 goals), I. Cardona (6 goals), with creative support from A. Boakye (8 assists), I. Cardona (6 assists), Lucas Stassin (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bastia won 3 times, Saint Etienne won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:26 from Bastia's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Bastia 3-4-1-2 / Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bastia wins 3, draws 3, Saint Etienne wins 9

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
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