FRANCE LIGUE 2
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Armand Cesari
Referee: B. Millot
Bastia
Match Timeline
Saint Etienne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
A. Zaouai
Bastia
🟨
8'
Anthony Roncaglia
Bastia
🟨
34'
Augustine Boakye
Saint Etienne
🟨
45+1'
Juan Guevara
Bastia
🔄
53'
I. Cardona ↔ J. Duffus
Saint Etienne
🔄
59'
A. Roncaglia ↔ Z. Ariss
Bastia
🔄
60'
R. Beliandjou ↔ J. Sebas
Bastia
🔄
60'
A. Moueffek ↔ I. Miladinovic
Saint Etienne
🔄
69'
J. Janneh ↔ J. Eickmayer
Bastia
🔄
69'
A. Zaouai ↔ A. Boutrah
Bastia
71'
J. Eickmayer · Assist: F. Tomi
Bastia
🟨
74'
Joshua Duffus
Saint Etienne
🟨
89'
Joachim Eickmayer
Bastia
🟨
90+8'
Noah Zilliox
Bastia
🔄
90+6'
T. Meynadier ↔ N. Zilliox
Bastia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
85.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Bastia Win 9.5%
Draw 5.5%
Saint Etienne Win 85.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bastia0.9
Saint Etienne1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bastia Bastia
WWDLW
26 GF / 38 GA
Saint Etienne Saint Etienne
WLDWL
68 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
2.06
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
10
BTTS Yes
17
7
Over 2.5
20
3.68
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bastia Bastia 33 matches
Saint Etienne Saint Etienne 33 matches
Bastia Statistic Saint Etienne
5 Wins 19
13 Draws 6
15 Losses 8
26 Goals For 68
38 Goals Against 35
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
10 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 24
7 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 12
12 Clean Sheets 12
18 Failed To Score 6
3.68 Shots On Goal 4.69
11.48 Total Shots 13
4.19 Corners 4.56
51.6% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Saint Etienne's more proactive style and Bastia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Saint Etienne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Saint Etienne carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 57 points while Bastia sit 18 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bastia expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Saint Etienne in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Saint Etienne having the stronger overall control.

Bastia Analysis

Bastia sit 18 with 21 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 12 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 19:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), A. Boutrah (2 goals), with creative support from A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), Felix Tomi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Saint Etienne Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 57 points from 30 games, Saint Etienne bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 17 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 53:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Z. Davitashvili (13 goals), Lucas Stassin (10 goals), I. Cardona (6 goals), with creative support from A. Boakye (8 assists), I. Cardona (6 assists), Lucas Stassin (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bastia won 3 times, Saint Etienne won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:26 from Bastia's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Bastia 3-4-1-2 / Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bastia wins 3, draws 3, Saint Etienne wins 9
Stats
Bastia Bastia
Saint Etienne Saint Etienne
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 6
20 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3
25% Ball Possession 75%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 2
2 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
173 Total passes 547
86 Passes accurate 436
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bastia
Formation
Saint Etienne
L. Olmeta
L. Olmeta
T. Meynadier
T. Meynadier
A. Roncaglia
A. Roncaglia
G. Akueson
G. Akueson
J. Guevara
J. Guevara
F. Bohnert
F. Bohnert
J. Janneh
J. Janneh
T. Ducrocq
T. Ducrocq
A. Zaouai
A. Zaouai
R. Beliandjou
R. Beliandjou
F. Tomi
🎯
F. Tomi
G. Larsonneur
G. Larsonneur
K. Pedro
K. Pedro
J. Le Cardinal
J. Le Cardinal
M. Nade
M. Nade
B. Old
B. Old
A. Boakye
A. Boakye
A. Kante
A. Kante
I. Cardona
I. Cardona
A. Moueffek
A. Moueffek
Z. Davitashvili
Z. Davitashvili
L. Stassin
L. Stassin
Bastia 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
L. Olmeta
G
24
T. Meynadier
↓ 90+6'
D
4
A. Roncaglia
↓ 59' 🟨 8'
D
28
G. Akueson
D
3
J. Guevara
🟨 45+1'
D
15
F. Bohnert
D
66
J. Janneh
↓ 69'
M
13
T. Ducrocq
M
18
A. Zaouai
⚽ 1' ↓ 69'
M
33
R. Beliandjou
↓ 60'
F
9
F. Tomi
🎯 71'
F
Substitutes
16
S. Contena
G
17
J. Eickmayer
⚽ 71' ↑ 69' 🟨 89'
M
12
N. Zilliox
↑ 90+6' 🟨 90+8'
D
5
Z. Ariss
↑ 59'
D
29
M. Merghem
F
10
A. Boutrah
↑ 69'
F
14
J. Sebas
↑ 60'
F
Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
G. Larsonneur
G
39
K. Pedro
D
26
J. Le Cardinal
D
3
M. Nade
D
11
B. Old
D
20
A. Boakye
🟨 34'
M
14
A. Kante
M
7
I. Cardona
↓ 53'
M
29
A. Moueffek
↓ 60'
M
22
Z. Davitashvili
M
9
L. Stassin
F
Substitutes
1
B. Maubleu
G
8
D. Appiah
D
6
M. Bernauer
D
15
C. Lamba
D
17
J. Duffus
↑ 53' 🟨 74'
F
5
M. Jaber
M
28
I. Miladinovic
↑ 60'
M
Last matches: Bastia
10.07.26
Fri
Bastia
Rodez
3
5
L
09.05.26
Lig
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Bastia
Guingamp
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Bastia
RED Star FC 93
3
4
L
03.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
1
1
D
20.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
06.03.26
Lig
Bastia
PAU
2
2
D
27.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
2
L
20.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
1
1
D
16.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
0
D
06.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Reims
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Laval
2
0
W
10.01.26
Cou
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cou
Bastia
Pontivy GSI
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
2
D
Last matches: Saint Etienne
29.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Nice
1
4
L
26.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Nice
0
0
D
15.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Rodez
0
0
D
09.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Amiens
5
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Rodez
1
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Estac Troyes
0
3
L
11.04.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Dunkerque
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Nancy
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Annecy
4
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Grenoble
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93
2
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
PAU
3
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Laval
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Guingamp
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Montpellier
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Boulogne
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Reims
0
1
L
17.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Clermont Foot
1
0
W
03.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Le Mans
0
0
D
21.12.25
Cou
Saint Etienne
Nice
1
2
L
H2H: Bastia vs Saint Etienne
18.04.26
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
13.12.25
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
2
2
D
16.03.24
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
4
L
19.12.23
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
3
2
L
31.01.23
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
30.08.22
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
5
0
L
04.03.17
H2H
SC Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
0
D
18.09.16
H2H
Saint Etienne
SC Bastia
1
0
L
16.04.16
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
1
L
30.08.15
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
2
1
L
02.05.15
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
1
0
W
06.12.14
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
1
0
L
22.02.14
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
2
L
28.09.13
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
2
2
D
27.01.13
H2H
Saint Etienne
Bastia
3
0
L
Last matches: Bastia
09.05.26
Lig
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
L
03.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
27.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
2
L
16.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
10.01.26
Cou
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
1
0
W
25.11.25
Lig
Bastia
Laval
0
2
L
07.11.25
Lig
Bastia
Reims
1
3
L
31.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
0
W
03.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
0
0
D
23.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
2
3
L
30.08.25
Lig
Bastia
Guingamp
1
3
L
15.08.25
Lig
Bastia
PAU
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bastia
18.04.26
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
16.03.24
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
4
L
31.01.23
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
16.04.16
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
1
L
02.05.15
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
1
0
W
22.02.14
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
2
L
Last matches: Saint Etienne
29.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Nice
1
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Rodez
1
2
L
04.04.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Nancy
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Grenoble
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
PAU
3
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Guingamp
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Reims
0
1
L
03.01.26
Lig
Saint Etienne
Le Mans
0
0
D
21.12.25
Cou
Saint Etienne
Nice
1
2
L
06.12.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Dunkerque
0
1
L
15.11.25
Cou
Saint Etienne
Quetigny
3
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Estac Troyes
3
2
W
01.11.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93
1
2
L
25.10.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Annecy
0
4
L
04.10.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Montpellier
2
0
W
23.09.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Amiens
1
0
W
13.09.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Clermont Foot
2
1
W
23.08.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Boulogne
1
0
W
09.08.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Laval
3
3
D
10.05.25
Lig
Saint Etienne
Reims
2
0
W
H2H away: Saint Etienne
18.04.26
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
L
16.03.24
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
4
W
31.01.23
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
L
04.03.17
H2H
SC Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
0
D
16.04.16
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
1
W
02.05.15
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
1
0
L
22.02.14
H2H
Bastia
Saint Etienne
0
2
W

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation