TURKEY › SüPER LIG
09.05.2026 17:00
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium
Referee: G. Hasova
Başakşehir
Match Timeline
Samsunspor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
E. Shomurodov
Başakşehir
🔄
21'
L. Satka ↔ T. Borevkovic
Samsunspor
🔄
24'
B. Yildirim ↔ D. Selke
Başakşehir
🟨
41'
Antoine Makoumbou
Samsunspor
⚽
43'
Y. Sari · Assist: E. Shomurodov
Başakşehir
🟨
49'
Jerome Opoku
Başakşehir
🟨
58'
Amine Harit
Başakşehir
🟨
69'
Josafat Mendes
Samsunspor
🔄
70'
A. Harit ↔ A. Fayzullaev
Başakşehir
🔄
74'
Y. E. Cift ↔ A. Sousa
Samsunspor
🔄
76'
Y. Sari ↔ I. Brnic
Başakşehir
🔄
76'
M. Crespo ↔ O. Ergun
Başakşehir
🔄
76'
L. Duarte ↔ O. Ba
Başakşehir
⚽
78'
A. Fayzullaev
Başakşehir
🔄
86'
J. Mendes ↔ Z. Yavru
Samsunspor
🔄
86'
E. Tavsan ↔ E. Albak
Samsunspor

Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Başakşehir Win 60.8%
Draw 4.9%
Samsunspor Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Başakşehir1.5
Samsunspor1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Başakşehir Başakşehir
WWDLW
64 GF / 41 GA
Samsunspor Samsunspor
WLDWL
61 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
22
BTTS Yes
25
23
Over 2.5
24
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Başakşehir Başakşehir 38 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor 45 matches
Başakşehir Statistic Samsunspor
17 Wins 18
10 Draws 14
11 Losses 13
64 Goals For 61
41 Goals Against 55
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
22 BTTS Yes 25
31 Over 1.5 33
23 Over 2.5 24
11 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 11
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.13
12.74 Total Shots 12.69
4.71 Corners 5.38
54% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Samsunspor. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Samsunspor look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Başakşehir Analysis

Başakşehir are currently 6 in the standings with 51 points from 32 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 53:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Shomurodov (20 goals), D. Selke (9 goals), B. Yildirim (7 goals), with creative support from Yusuf Sarı (6 assists), Miguel Crespo (5 assists), E. Shomurodov (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Samsunspor Analysis

Samsunspor sit 7 with 48 points after 32 league matches. The record of 12 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 43:42 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marius (9 goals), C. Holse (8 goals), C. Ndiaye (7 goals), with creative support from E. Kilinc (5 assists), Anthony Musaba (4 assists), L. Tomasson (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Başakşehir won 7 times, Samsunspor won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:7 from Başakşehir's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Başakşehir 4-2-3-1 / Samsunspor 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Başakşehir 0, Samsunspor 8
H2H summary: Başakşehir wins 7, draws 1, Samsunspor wins 2

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation