ECUADOR LIGA PRO
22.09.2026 00:30
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Referee: G. Guerrero

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds 2.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.5%
2.58
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.31
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Barcelona SC Win 29.8%
Draw 3.7%
Independiente del Valle Win 66.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barcelona SC1.01
Independiente del Valle1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC
WWDLW
42 GF / 43 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
90 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
2.2
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
19
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
26
3.53
Shots on Goal
5.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 44 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 41 matches
Barcelona SC Statistic Independiente del Valle
16 Wins 30
13 Draws 4
15 Losses 7
42 Goals For 90
43 Goals Against 45
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 2.2
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
19 BTTS Yes 23
27 Over 1.5 35
15 Over 2.5 26
3 Over 3.5 19
15 Clean Sheets 14
14 Failed To Score 5
3.53 Shots On Goal 5.9
12.28 Total Shots 16.85
4.23 Corners 5.85
49.1% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 74 points while Barcelona SC sit 6 on 44, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barcelona SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control.

Barcelona SC Analysis

So far, Barcelona SC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 44 points from 30 matches. The record of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 32:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Benedetto (5 goals), J. Quiñónez (3 goals), Milton Celiz (2 goals), with creative support from T. Martínez (2 assists), D. Benedetto (1 assists), J. Quiñónez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 74 points after 30 matches. They have recorded 24 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a 73:33 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on D. Reasco (7 goals), M. Perelló (7 goals), Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rodríguez (5 assists), D. Reasco (4 assists), J. Viacava (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 13 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Barcelona SC won 1 times, Independiente del Valle won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Barcelona SC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Barcelona SC wins 1, draws 1, Independiente del Valle wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
L W W D D
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
W D W D L
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
D L D D W
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D D L W L
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
D W L L W
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D D L W L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs