RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rostec Arena
Referee: Y. Bobrovskiy
Baltika
Match Timeline
Rubin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
M. Daku · Assist: N. Gripshi
Rubin
🔄
46'
A. Mendel ↔ N. Titkov
Baltika
🔄
46'
M. Petrov ↔ I. Belikov
Baltika
🟨
47'
Ilya Rozhkov
Rubin
🟨
59'
Yuri Kovalev
Baltika
🔄
61'
I. Petrov ↔ T. Yenne
Baltika
🔄
61'
Y. Kovalev ↔ V. Pospelov
Baltika
🔄
63'
N. Gripshi ↔ R. Bezrukov
Rubin
🟥
76'
Eldar Ćivić
Baltika
🔄
79'
I. Rozhkov ↔ D. Kuzyaev
Rubin
🔄
79'
M. Daku ↔ J. Siwe
Rubin
🔄
85'
N. Gassama ↔ E. Anderson
Baltika
🔄
89'
N. Lobov ↔ A. Gritsaenko
Rubin
🔄
89'
V. Hodza ↔ D. Kuznetsov
Rubin
🟨
90+3'
Nikolay Titkov
Baltika
🟨
90+4'
Ignacio Saavedra
Rubin

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Baltika Win 55.2%
Draw 12.7%
Rubin Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Baltika1.21
Rubin0.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Baltika Baltika
WWDLW
37 GF / 17 GA
Rubin Rubin
WLDWL
25 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
0.93
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
10
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
9
4.11
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Baltika Baltika 27 matches
Rubin Rubin 27 matches
Baltika Statistic Rubin
11 Wins 10
13 Draws 9
3 Losses 8
37 Goals For 25
17 Goals Against 26
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
10 BTTS Yes 8
18 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 11
4.11 Shots On Goal 3
12.52 Total Shots 10.3
3.37 Corners 3.81
46.6% Ball Possession 43.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Baltika's more proactive style and Rubin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Baltika expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Rubin in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubin having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rubin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 46 points after 27 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 13 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 37:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Gil (13 goals), Maksim Petrov (7 goals), C. Offor (3 goals), with creative support from Ilya Petrov (4 assists), Ivan Belikov (3 assists), Nathan Gassama (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Rubin Analysis

So far, Rubin have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 39 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 25:26 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Daku (9 goals), Veldin Hodža (3 goals), D. Shabanhaxhaj (2 goals), with creative support from U. Iwu (3 assists), Dmitriy Kabutov (2 assists), N. Gripshi (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Baltika won 1 times, Rubin won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Baltika's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Baltika 5-4-1 / Rubin 5-3-2
H2H summary: Baltika wins 1, draws 1, Rubin wins 4
Stats
Baltika Baltika
Rubin Rubin
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 4
20 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 2
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 1
4 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 4
5 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
315 Total passes 276
208 Passes accurate 150
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Baltika
Formation
Rubin
E. Lyubakov
E. Lyubakov
M. Beveev
M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov
K. Andrade
K. Andrade
N. Gassama
N. Gassama
E. Civic
E. Civic
M. Petrov
M. Petrov
A. Mendel
A. Mendel
I. Petrov
I. Petrov
Y. Kovalev
Y. Kovalev
C. Offor
C. Offor
E. Staver
E. Staver
N. Lobov
N. Lobov
E. Teslenko
E. Teslenko
D. Maldonado
D. Maldonado
A. Arroyo
A. Arroyo
V. Hodza
V. Hodza
I. Saavedra
I. Saavedra
K. Nizhegorodov
K. Nizhegorodov
N. Gripshi
🎯
N. Gripshi
M. Daku
M. Daku
I. Rozhkov
I. Rozhkov
Baltika 5-4-1
Starting XI
44
E. Lyubakov
G
23
M. Beveev
D
2
S. Varatynov
D
16
K. Andrade
D
4
N. Gassama
↓ 85'
D
77
E. Civic
🟥 76'
D
73
M. Petrov
↓ 46'
M
8
A. Mendel
↓ 46'
M
10
I. Petrov
↓ 61'
M
11
Y. Kovalev
↓ 61' 🟨 59'
M
90
C. Offor
F
Substitutes
81
I. Kukushkin
G
36
A. Tsitsilin
G
14
S. Kovac
M
5
A. Mourid
M
22
N. Titkov
↑ 46' 🟨 90+3'
M
15
T. Yenne
↑ 61'
F
18
Derik Lacerda
F
42
V. Pospelov
↑ 61'
M
69
I. Manelov
F
21
E. Anderson
↑ 85'
D
68
M. Ryadno
D
26
I. Belikov
↑ 46'
D
Rubin 3-4-3
Starting XI
38
E. Staver
G
98
N. Lobov
↓ 89'
D
2
E. Teslenko
D
3
D. Maldonado
D
12
A. Arroyo
M
22
V. Hodza
↓ 89'
M
7
I. Saavedra
🟨 90+4'
M
4
K. Nizhegorodov
M
11
N. Gripshi
🎯 29' ↓ 63'
F
10
M. Daku
⚽ 29' ↓ 79'
F
51
I. Rozhkov
↓ 79' 🟨 47'
F
Substitutes
25
A. Nigmatullin
G
1
A. Kenyaykin
G
19
O. Ivanov
M
70
D. Kabutov
D
27
A. Gritsaenko
↑ 89'
D
18
M. Apshatsev
M
44
D. Kuznetsov
↑ 89'
M
14
D. Kuzyaev
↑ 79'
M
77
A. Jukic
M
23
R. Bezrukov
↑ 63'
D
43
J. Siwe
↑ 79'
F
59
D. N. Motorin
M
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
Last matches: Rubin
18.07.26
Fri
Rubin
Lokomotiv
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Rubin
Krylia Sovetov
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Rubin
Spartak Moscow
0
0
D
03.07.26
Fri
Rubin
FC Orenburg
1
2
L
26.06.26
Fri
Rubin
KAMAZ
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Rubin
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
11.05.26
Pre
Rubin
Spartak Moscow
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Rubin
CSKA Moscow
0
0
D
22.04.26
Pre
Rubin
Dynamo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Rubin
Akron
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
Rubin
FC Orenburg
0
0
D
06.04.26
Pre
Rubin
FC Sochi
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Rubin
Krylia Sovetov
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pre
Rubin
Lokomotiv
3
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Rubin
FC Krasnodar
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Rubin
FC Orenburg
0
1
L
15.02.26
Fri
Rubin
Pakhtakor
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Rubin
Navbahor
2
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Rubin
Zhenys
2
0
W
H2H: Baltika vs Rubin
02.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
19.10.25
H2H
Rubin
Baltika
0
3
W
10.12.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.10.23
H2H
Rubin
Baltika
1
0
L
20.05.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
30.10.22
H2H
Rubin
Baltika
3
3
D
Last matches: Baltika
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
12.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Fakel
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Ordabasy
0
0
D
25.01.26
Fri
Baltika
Surkhon
2
3
L
07.12.25
Pre
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
2
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Baltika
Spartak Moscow
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
2
0
W
05.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
0
D
16.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
03.08.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Orenburg
3
2
W
H2H at home: Baltika
02.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
10.12.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
20.05.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
Last matches: Rubin
18.07.26
Fri
Rubin
Lokomotiv
3
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Rubin
Spartak Moscow
0
0
D
11.05.26
Pre
Rubin
Spartak Moscow
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Rubin
Dynamo
1
0
W
06.04.26
Pre
Rubin
FC Sochi
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Rubin
Krylia Sovetov
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pre
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Rubin
FC Orenburg
0
1
L
21.01.26
Fri
Rubin
IMT Novi Beograd
3
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Rubin
FC Rostov
0
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Rubin
Zenit
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
Rubin
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pre
Rubin
FC Krasnodar
0
1
L
27.09.25
Pre
Rubin
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
20.09.25
Pre
Rubin
Akron
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pre
Rubin
FC Orenburg
2
2
D
09.08.25
Pre
Rubin
CSKA Moscow
1
5
L
20.07.25
Pre
Rubin
Akhmat
2
0
W
H2H away: Rubin
02.05.26
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
W
10.12.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
W
20.05.23
H2H
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8
Rubin Away
30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation