RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
06.09.2026 17:45
Rostec Arena
Referee: Sergey Karasev, Russia
Baltika
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Sergey Pinyaev
Lokomotiv
🟨
25'
Andrey Mostovoy
Lokomotiv
🟨
44'
César Montes
Lokomotiv
🟨
45'
Aleksandr Rudenko
Lokomotiv
🔄
45'
Chinonso Offor ↔ Maksim Petrov
Baltika
🔄
45'
Vladislav Pospelov ↔ Brayan Gil
Baltika
🔄
45'
César Montes ↔ Maksim Nenakhov
Lokomotiv
🟨
54'
Eduardo Anderson
Baltika
🔄
60'
Gerzino Nyamsi ↔ Egor Pogostnov
Lokomotiv
🔄
60'
Sergey Pinyaev ↔ Vadim Rakov
Lokomotiv
🔄
61'
Nikolay Titkov ↔ Fahd Moufi
Baltika
🔄
74'
Zelimkhan Bakaev ↔ Nikolay Komlichenko
Lokomotiv
🔄
79'
Aymane Mourid ↔ Ivan Belikov
Baltika
85'
Andrey Mostovoy · Assist: Nikolay Komlichenko
Lokomotiv
🔄
89'
Andrey Mendel ↔ Konstantin Shiltsov
Baltika

Baltika vs Lokomotiv Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.97
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.87
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.1%
1.97
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.87
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.13
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.3%
1.35
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.99
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Baltika Win 80.1%
Draw 7.5%
Lokomotiv Win 12.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Baltika1.56
Lokomotiv1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Baltika Baltika
WWDLW
36 GF / 13 GA
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
WLDWL
44 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
8
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
5
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Baltika Baltika 18 matches
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 22 matches
Baltika Statistic Lokomotiv
11 Wins 11
4 Draws 6
3 Losses 5
36 Goals For 44
13 Goals Against 20
2 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
8 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 11
1 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 3
13.33 Total Shots 13.67
4.17 Corners 2.83
36% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Baltika's more proactive style and Lokomotiv's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Baltika arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 7 points compared to Lokomotiv in 14 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Baltika expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Lokomotiv in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lokomotiv having the stronger overall control.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika are currently 7 in the standings with 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Brayan Gil (2 goals), Sergey Varatynov (1 goals), Nikolay Titkov (1 goals), with creative support from Nathan Gassama (2 assists), Sergey Varatynov (1 assists), Aymane Mourid (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Lokomotiv Analysis

Lokomotiv sit 14 with 3 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 5:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Aleksandr Silyanov (1 goals), Zelimkhan Bakaev (1 goals), Aleksey Batrakov (1 goals), with creative support from Aleksandr Silyanov (1 assists), Zelimkhan Bakaev (1 assists), Aleksey Batrakov (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Baltika won 1 times, Lokomotiv won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:21 from Baltika's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Baltika 5-4-1 / Lokomotiv 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Baltika 1, Lokomotiv 2
H2H summary: Baltika wins 1, draws 4, Lokomotiv wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 2 0 14:7 7 20
D D W W W
2 8 5 1 2 11:8 3 16
W W W W L
3 8 4 4 0 12:8 4 16
D W D W W
4 8 5 1 2 15:7 8 16
W L D W W
5 8 5 0 3 16:7 9 15
W L W L W
6 8 4 0 4 14:13 1 12
L W L L W
7 8 3 2 3 12:9 3 11
D L W D L
8 8 2 5 1 11:10 1 11
D D W D D
9 8 2 4 2 13:11 2 10
W D D W L
10 8 2 4 2 12:13 -1 10
W D D W L
11 8 1 5 2 7:10 -3 8
L D D D D
12 8 2 2 4 10:14 -4 8
L W L L D
13 8 1 3 4 7:10 -3 6
L W L L D
14 8 0 5 3 9:18 -9 5
D D D L D
15 8 1 1 6 9:21 -12 4
L L L L D
16 8 0 3 5 6:12 -6 3
D L L D L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL