Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
89.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
45.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
76.8%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Bahia
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Bahia
16 matches
Gremio
15 matches
| Bahia | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Draws | 5 |
| 5 | Losses | 6 |
| 22 | Goals For | 15 |
| 20 | Goals Against | 17 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 1.25 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.13 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 13 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 5 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.88 | Shots On Goal | 3.73 |
| 12.69 | Total Shots | 11.93 |
| 5.38 | Corners | 3.67 |
| 54.6% | Ball Possession | 50.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bahia's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 22 points compared to Gremio in 17 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Gremio in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Gremio.
So far, Bahia have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 22 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 20:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Gremio sit 17 with 17 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 15:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 4 times, Gremio won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:15 from Bahia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Bahia
6
1
7
2
4
0
Lineups
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Atletico Torque
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Santos
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Bahia
Internacional
Bahia
Vitoria
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Mirassol
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Coritiba
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Botafogo
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Atletico Torque
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Santos
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Bahia
Vitoria
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Fluminense
Gremio
Mirassol
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Fluminense
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33:14 | 19 | 44 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35:16 | 19 | 37 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26:19 | 7 | 33 |
W
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 5 | 32 |
D
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26:20 | 6 | 30 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 6 |
Bahia
Home
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28:24 | 4 | 30 |
D
W
W
L
D
|
| 7 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 2 | 27 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | -3 | 27 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 33:32 | 1 | 26 |
D
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25:27 | -2 | 26 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22:25 | -3 | 26 |
D
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24:22 | 2 | 25 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23:24 | -1 | 25 |
D
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22:24 | -2 | 21 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27:31 | -4 | 21 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 16 |
Gremio
Away
|
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21:25 | -4 | 21 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
| 17 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22:30 | -8 | 20 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20:25 | -5 | 19 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21:32 | -11 | 18 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 20 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17:39 | -22 | 9 |
L
L
L
L
L
|