BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
Bahia
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Willian José
Bahia
7'
Huguinho
Botafogo
🟨
21'
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
25'
C. Olivera ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🟨
37'
Nahuel Ferraresi
Botafogo
VAR
40'
Ademir
Bahia
🟨
42'
Ademir
Bahia
🟨
43'
Cristian Medina
Botafogo
🟨
44'
Erick
Bahia
🟨
45+10'
Huguinho
Botafogo
🟥
45+2'
Neto
Botafogo
🔄
45+4'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ Raul Steffens
Botafogo
🔄
46'
Caio Alexandre ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
46'
Erick Pulga ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
57'
N. Ferraresi
Bahia
🔄
65'
Ze Guilherme ↔ M. Sanabria
Bahia
🔄
74'
A. Montoro ↔ Newton
Botafogo
🔄
74'
C. Medina ↔ S. Rodriguez
Botafogo
🔄
75'
Kauan Toledo ↔ Matheus Martins
Botafogo
🟨
84'
Newton
Botafogo
🟨
90+3'
David Duarte
Bahia
🔄
90+4'
Willian Jose ↔ Marcos Victor
Bahia
🔄
90+3'
G. Justino ↔ C. Ramos
Botafogo
90'
David Duarte · Assist: Ademir
Bahia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.2%
Odds 3.83
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.2%
3.83
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.50
Correct Score 0-2
-
21.00
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 34.7%
Draw 7%
Botafogo Win 58.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.47
Botafogo1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
25 GF / 24 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
33 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
12
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
13
4.72
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 18 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 20 matches
Bahia Statistic Botafogo
7 Wins 7
5 Draws 5
6 Losses 8
25 Goals For 33
24 Goals Against 32
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
12 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 4
4.72 Shots On Goal 4.8
13 Total Shots 12.6
5.5 Corners 3.75
55% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Botafogo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Botafogo.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia sit 8 with 23 points after 15 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 21:19 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 9 in the standings with 21 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 29:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 8 times, Botafogo won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Bahia's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Bahia 5, Botafogo 7
H2H summary: Bahia wins 8, draws 3, Botafogo wins 4
Stats
Bahia Bahia
Botafogo Botafogo
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
10 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Goal 6
9 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 3
20 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 8
496 Total passes 241
432 Passes accurate 168
2.45 expected_goals 0.95
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Bahia
Formation
Botafogo
Ronaldo Strada
Ronaldo Strada
Gilberto
Gilberto
David Duarte
David Duarte
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Ze Guilherme
Ze Guilherme
Erick
Erick
Caio Alexandre
Caio Alexandre
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
C. Olivera
C. Olivera
Neto
Neto
M. Ponte
M. Ponte
N. Ferraresi
N. Ferraresi
G. Justino
G. Justino
Alex Telles
Alex Telles
Huguinho
Huguinho
C. Medina
C. Medina
L. M. Villalba Jaume
L. M. Villalba Jaume
A. Montoro
A. Montoro
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral
Bahia 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Ronaldo Strada
G
2
Gilberto
D
33
David Duarte
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+3'
D
21
S. Ramos
D
66
Ze Guilherme
↓ 65'
D
14
Erick
🟨 44'
M
8
Caio Alexandre
↓ 46'
M
11
Rodrigo
M
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 46'
F
12
Willian Jose
↓ 90+4' 🟨 -5'
F
99
C. Olivera
↓ 25'
F
Substitutes
61
Victor
10
Everton Ribeiro
↑ 46'
M
7
Ademir
🎯 90' ↑ 25' 🟨 42'
F
15
Michel Araujo
M
23
M. Sanabria
↑ 65'
F
31
R. Gomez
D
27
Everaldo
↑ 46'
F
6
Jean Lucas
M
4
Kanu
D
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
44
Marcos Victor
↑ 90+4'
D
90
Caio Suassuna
F
Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Neto
🟥 45+2'
G
4
M. Ponte
D
5
N. Ferraresi
⚽ 57' 🟨 37'
D
34
G. Justino
↓ 90+3'
D
13
Alex Telles
D
75
Huguinho
⚽ 7' 🟨 45+10'
M
6
C. Medina
↓ 74' 🟨 43'
M
77
L. M. Villalba Jaume
↓ 45+4'
M
10
A. Montoro
↓ 74' 🟨 21'
M
59
Kauan Toledo
↓ 75'
M
19
Arthur Cabral
F
Substitutes
1
Raul Steffens
↑ 45+4'
G
2
Vitinho
D
28
Newton
↑ 74' 🟨 84'
M
23
S. Rodriguez
↑ 74'
M
27
Caio Roque
D
14
J. Barrera
M
88
Edenilson
M
9
C. Ramos
↑ 90+3'
F
11
Matheus Martins
↑ 75'
F
3
Ythallo
D
26
Anthony
D
45
Caio Valle
M
Last matches: Bahia
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
Last matches: Botafogo
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Gremio
3
5
L
30.01.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
4
0
W
H2H: Bahia vs Botafogo
30.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
02.10.25
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
2
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
25.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
0
0
D
07.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
31.07.24
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
1
1
D
05.05.24
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
W
27.08.23
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
3
0
L
24.04.23
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
2
L
08.11.20
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
01.10.20
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
W
26.09.19
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
0
W
02.05.19
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
3
2
L
20.10.18
H2H
Botafogo
Bahia
0
1
W
10.06.18
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
3
3
D
Last matches: Bahia
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
30.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
25.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
0
0
D
07.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
24.04.23
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
2
L
08.11.20
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
W
26.09.19
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
0
W
10.06.18
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
3
3
D
Last matches: Botafogo
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
19.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Gremio
3
5
L
H2H away: Botafogo
30.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
L
25.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
0
0
D
07.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
L
24.04.23
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
2
W
08.11.20
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
1
0
L
26.09.19
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
2
0
L
10.06.18
H2H
Bahia
Botafogo
3
3
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.83
Draw 3.71
Home 1.98
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.26
Draw 2.46
Home 2.52
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.16
Over 3.25 2.46
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.20
Under 1.5 4.62
Under 2.25 2.71
Under 2.5 2.26
Under 2.75 2.02
Under 3.0 1.75
Under 3.25 1.59
Under 3.5 1.48
Under 4.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 3.70
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.60
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.83
Draw 3.70
Home 1.96
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.21
Home 2.42
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.71
Home 2.16
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.06
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 1.75 1.17
Over 2.0 1.22
Over 2.25 1.44
Over 2.5 1.61
Over 2.75 1.75
Over 3.0 1.86
Over 3.25 2.08
Over 3.5 2.29
Over 3.75 2.69
Over 4.0 3.34
Over 4.25 3.74
Over 4.5 4.05
Over 4.75 5.05
Over 5.0 6.95
Over 5.5 7.70
Over 6.5 19.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 11.80
Under 1.0 8.70
Under 1.25 6.42
Under 1.5 4.65
Under 1.75 4.22
Under 2.0 3.68
Under 2.25 2.87
Under 2.5 2.38
Under 2.75 2.13
Under 3.0 1.81
Under 3.25 1.61
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 3.75 1.36
Under 4.0 1.24
Under 4.25 1.19
Under 4.5 1.16
Under 4.75 1.10
Under 5.0 1.04
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 3.55
Home 1.92
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.28
Home 2.48
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.70
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.0 1.36
Over 2.25 1.57
Over 2.5 1.77
Over 2.75 1.98
Over 3.0 2.33
Over 3.25 2.65
Over 3.5 2.95
Over 3.75 3.50
Over 4.5 5.75
Over 5.5 11.50
Under 0.5 12.00
Under 1.5 4.10
Under 2.0 3.15
Under 2.25 2.40
Under 2.5 2.04
Under 2.75 1.82
Under 3.0 1.60
Under 3.25 1.48
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.02

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
W W D D D
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
W L D W D
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
D L W D L
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
W W D L D
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
W W W L W
6
Bahia Home
17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
W L D L D
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
L W W D L
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
L D L L D
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
W L W D W
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
W W L W L
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
D W D W L
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
L D W D L
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
L W L D W
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
L L W D W
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
W L L W D
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
L W D L D
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
L L L W D
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
W L W D W
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
L W L D W
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
L L L D L

Missing Players

Bahia 5 missing
-
Leo Vieira
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Ronaldo Strada
Questionable Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Luciano Juba
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Nicolas Acevedo
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Ruan Pablo
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Botafogo 7 missing
-
Bastos
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Allan
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Danilo
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
J. Correa
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Junior Santos
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
Nathan Fernandes
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Kaio Pantaleao
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT