NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE

11.09.2026 18:00

AZ Alkmaar

1 - 1

Willem II

AFAS Stadion

Referee: M. van den Kerkhof

AZ Alkmaar

Match Timeline

Willem II

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 55.7%

Odds 1.14

BTTS

Yes

Probability 71.2%

Odds 1.80

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 77.2%

Odds 1.28

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	55.7%	1.14	▥
BTTS	Yes	71.2%	1.80	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77.2%	1.28	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	92%	1.88	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	1.50	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	11.00	▥

Probability Distribution

AZ Alkmaar Win 55.7%

Draw 10%

Willem II Win 34.4%

Expected Goals (xG)

AZ Alkmaar2.48

Willem II1.22

Recent Form (Last 5)

AZ Alkmaar

WWDLW

29 GF / 13 GA

Willem II

WLDWL

10 GF / 18 GA

Key Stats

2.64

Average Goals Scored

1.25

1.18

Average Goals Conceded

2.25

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

Shots on Goal

2.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AZ Alkmaar 11 matches

Willem II 8 matches

AZ Alkmaar	Statistic	Willem II
8	Wins	2
2	Draws	2
1	Losses	4
29	Goals For	10
13	Goals Against	18
2.64	Avg Goals Scored	1.25
1.18	Avg Goals Conceded	2.25
7	BTTS Yes	6
10	Over 1.5	7
7	Over 2.5	7
6	Over 3.5	4
3	Clean Sheets	1
1	Failed To Score	1
8	Shots On Goal	2.5
19.6	Total Shots	12.5
8.8	Corners	4.75
56.8%	Ball Possession	40.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 7 times, Willem II won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:21 from AZ Alkmaar's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (90%)

Predicted formations: AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1 / Willem II 4-2-3-1

Missing players: AZ Alkmaar 4, Willem II 7

H2H summary: AZ Alkmaar wins 7, draws 4, Willem II wins 4

Standings

Eredivisie

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	22:7	15	16	W W W W W
2	AZ Alkmaar Home	6	5	1	0	17:6	11	16	D W W W W
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20:7	13	14	W W D W D
4	Twente	6	4	1	1	12:5	7	13	W W D W W
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14:6	8	10	W L W D W
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13:7	6	10	L D W W L
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12:14	-2	10	L W W L W
8	GO Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15:13	2	9	D D L W D
9	Groningen	6	2	2	2	12:13	-1	8	D D L L W
10	NEC Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	11:12	-1	7	L D L W W
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7:9	-2	6	D L D L D
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10:13	-3	5	L D L D W
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5:11	-6	5	D L D L L
14	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11:19	-8	5	W D L D L
15	Cambuur	6	1	1	4	9:18	-9	4	W D L L L
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6:17	-11	4	L D L W L
17	Willem II Away	5	0	2	3	5:14	-9	2	D L D L L
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6:16	-10	1	L L D L L