JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Best Denki Stadium
Referee: H. Shimizu
Avispa Fukuoka
Match Timeline
JEF United Chiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
D. Ishikawa
JEF United Chiba
🟨
17'
Shintaro Nago
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
33'
Koji Toriumi
JEF United Chiba
🟨
39'
Teppei Oka
Avispa Fukuoka
54'
S. Usui
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
55'
T. Matsumura ↔ H. Goya
JEF United Chiba
🔄
61'
S. Nago ↔ H. Akino
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
61'
T. Oka ↔ Y. Hashimoto
Avispa Fukuoka
66'
Y. Hashimoto
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
68'
T. Taguchi ↔ Y. Kobayashi
JEF United Chiba
🔄
68'
K. Tanaka ↔ Z. Issaka
JEF United Chiba
🔄
68'
T. Tsukui ↔ M. Himeno
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
M. Shigemi ↔ A. Sani Brown
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
74'
K. Shiihashi ↔ K. Okuno
Avispa Fukuoka
87'
H. Goya · Assist: D. Ishikawa
JEF United Chiba
🔄
88'
K. Fujimoto ↔ M. Yuzawa
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
88'
M. Hidaka ↔ T. Yasui
JEF United Chiba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Avispa Fukuoka Win 64.6%
Draw 7.7%
JEF United Chiba Win 27.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avispa Fukuoka1.54
JEF United Chiba1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WWDLW
31 GF / 37 GA
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WLDWL
19 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.74
15
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
10
3.39
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 22 matches
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 19 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Statistic JEF United Chiba
5 Wins 3
10 Draws 3
7 Losses 13
31 Goals For 19
37 Goals Against 33
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.74
15 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 7
3.39 Shots On Goal 3.83
11.22 Total Shots 11.28
4.56 Corners 4.72
41.8% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avispa Fukuoka expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and JEF United Chiba in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward JEF United Chiba having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors JEF United Chiba. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 21:31, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Shosei Usui (4 goals), G. Miura (2 goals), Tomoya Miki (2 goals), with creative support from Tomoya Miki (2 assists), Y. Hashimoto (2 assists), G. Miura (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 12 points from 18 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 18:34, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Hiroto Goya (3 goals), Carlinhos Junior (2 goals), D. Ishikawa (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Issaka (2 assists), N. Sugiyama (2 assists), Hiroto Goya (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 5 times, JEF United Chiba won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:23 from Avispa Fukuoka's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1 / JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
H2H summary: Avispa Fukuoka wins 5, draws 5, JEF United Chiba wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)