🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Q2 Stadium
Referee: R. Albuquerque
Austin
Match Timeline
Philadelphia Union
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
C. Sullivan · Assist: N. Harriel
Philadelphia Union
21'
B. Hines-Ike · Assist: J. Rosales
Austin
🟨
38'
J. Bueno
Philadelphia Union
🟨
41'
N. Pierre
Philadelphia Union
🔄
57'
I. Vassilev ↔ Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
57'
J. Bueno ↔ J. Lukic
Philadelphia Union
🔄
63'
J. Alastuey ↔ F. Torres
Austin
🔄
63'
C. Ramirez ↔ B. Vazquez
Austin
🔄
72'
J. Rosales ↔ P. Placheta
Austin
🔄
72'
B. Hines-Ike ↔ M. Desler
Austin
🔄
74'
C. Sullivan ↔ A. Anello
Philadelphia Union
🔄
74'
B. Damiani ↔ E. Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
🔄
84'
J. Gallagher ↔ Z. Kolmanic
Austin
🔄
90+3'
M. Iloski ↔ A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🟨
90+6'
E. Torres
Austin

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Austin Win 65%
Draw 18%
Philadelphia Union Win 17%
Expected Goals (xG)
Austin1.32
Philadelphia Union1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Austin Austin
WWDLW
32 GF / 47 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
52 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.79
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
13
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
18
4.1
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Austin Austin 28 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 29 matches
Austin Statistic Philadelphia Union
7 Wins 9
7 Draws 7
14 Losses 13
32 Goals For 52
47 Goals Against 46
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
13 BTTS Yes 18
21 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 6
4.1 Shots On Goal 4.92
10.5 Total Shots 15.92
4.35 Corners 6.04
48.5% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Philadelphia Union. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Austin expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Philadelphia Union in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Philadelphia Union having the stronger overall control. Austin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Austin Analysis

Austin sit 14 with 17 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 22:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Christian Ramirez (4 goals), Myrto Uzuni (4 goals), Facundo Torres (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Torres (2 assists), Ervin Torres (2 assists), Christian Ramirez (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

With 16 points from 18 games and a place of 14, Philadelphia Union still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 25:33, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their threat comes through Milan Iloski (8 goals), Nathan Harriel (1 goals), Bruno Damiani (1 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Nathan Harriel (1 assists), Bruno Damiani (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Austin won 0 times, Philadelphia Union won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Austin's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (83%)
Predicted formations: Austin 3-4-3 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Missing players: Austin 1, Philadelphia Union 3
H2H summary: Austin wins 0, draws 3, Philadelphia Union wins 1

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 13 4 4 48:18 30 43
W W L W D
2 22 12 3 7 30:26 4 39
D L W W W
3 23 10 6 7 36:22 14 36
D D L L D
4 22 10 4 8 39:33 6 34
D L L L L
5 22 9 7 6 41:37 4 34
D L W W D
6 22 9 7 6 33:30 3 34
D W D W D
7 22 10 1 11 31:28 3 31
W L W W W
8 22 8 6 8 40:33 7 30
W W L W D
9 22 7 8 7 30:32 -2 29
D W L D D
10 21 8 4 9 34:33 1 28
L L L D D
11 22 8 4 10 39:39 0 28
L D W L W
12 21 7 5 9 24:29 -5 26
D D L L L
13 23 6 8 9 28:35 -7 26
L D W L D
14 22 6 6 10 28:41 -13 24
W D W L L
15 22 4 3 15 20:54 -34 15
L L D L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)