08.08.2026 23:30
Referee: D. Rodriguez
Aurora
Match Timeline
Bolívar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
J. Velasquez · Assist: Robson Matheus
Bolívar
14'
J. Velazquez · Assist: J. Torrico
Aurora
🟨
24'
J. Velasquez
Bolívar
VAR
45+1'
M. Rangel
Aurora
🟨
46'
J. Velazquez
Aurora
🔄
46'
M. Rangel ↔ H. Vaca
Aurora
50'
J. Velasquez · Assist: S. Echeverria
Bolívar
🟨
52'
A. Amarilla
Aurora
53'
J. Velazquez
Bolívar
58'
D. Asprilla · Assist: L. Justiniano
Bolívar
🔄
63'
S. Altamirano ↔ A. Flores
Aurora
🔄
63'
Robson Matheus ↔ B. Arce
Bolívar
🔄
63'
D. Asprilla ↔ M. Cauteruccio
Bolívar
🔄
68'
D. Romero ↔ D. Batallini
Bolívar
🟨
69'
J. Sagredo
Bolívar
🔄
69'
E. Saavedra ↔ C. A. Melgar
Bolívar
🔄
77'
A. Terrazas ↔ H. Mojica
Aurora
🔄
77'
E. Sanchez ↔ H. Sanchez
Aurora
🔄
80'
L. Justiniano ↔ E. Vaca Moreno
Bolívar
🟨
87'
J. Torrico
Aurora
🟨
90+3'
L. Barboza
Aurora
90'
H. Sanchez
Aurora

Aurora vs Bolívar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aurora Win 65.4%
Draw 11.3%
Bolívar Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aurora1.4
Bolívar1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aurora Aurora
WWDLW
24 GF / 20 GA
Bolívar Bolívar
WLDWL
35 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
12
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
10
3.08
Shots on Goal
4.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aurora Aurora 15 matches
Bolívar Bolívar 20 matches
Aurora Statistic Bolívar
5 Wins 8
8 Draws 6
2 Losses 6
24 Goals For 35
20 Goals Against 22
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
12 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 17
6 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
3.08 Shots On Goal 4.53
8.31 Total Shots 10.89
2.46 Corners 3.53
32.1% Ball Possession 38.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bolívar. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aurora expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Bolívar in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bolívar having the stronger overall control.

Aurora Analysis

Placed 4 with 21 points from 12 outings, Aurora continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, while the 20:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bolívar Analysis

Bolívar arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 21 points after 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 26:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Aurora won 3 times, Bolívar won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:34 from Aurora's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Aurora 5-4-1 / Bolívar 4-4-2
H2H summary: Aurora wins 3, draws 2, Bolívar wins 9

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 3 3 50:20 30 42
W W W W W
2 19 12 6 1 43:13 30 42
W W D D D
3 19 11 6 2 37:21 16 39
W W W W L
4 19 7 9 3 30:24 6 30
W W D D L
5 19 7 8 4 25:14 11 29
W D L D D
6 19 8 3 8 34:27 7 27
L L D W W
7 19 8 3 8 30:24 6 27
W W L W W
8 19 6 8 5 29:21 8 26
W L D D W
9 19 7 5 7 29:38 -9 26
L D L D W
10 19 7 4 8 26:32 -6 25
L L W L W
11 19 6 3 10 32:48 -16 21
L W D L L
12 19 6 2 11 30:43 -13 20
L W L D L
13 19 5 2 12 25:38 -13 17
W L W L L
14 19 5 2 12 18:39 -21 17
L L L L L
15 19 4 4 11 15:37 -22 16
L L W D W
16 19 2 8 9 19:33 -14 14
L L D D L