AUSTRALIA A-LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Go Media Stadium
Referee: J. Barreiro
Auckland
Match Timeline
Central Coast Mariners
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Hiroki Sakai
Auckland
VAR
14'
James Donachie
Central Coast Mariners
🟨
16'
James Donachie
Central Coast Mariners
19'
A. Auglah · Assist: N. Blair
Central Coast Mariners
🟨
27'
Lachlan Brook
Auckland
🟨
49'
Storm Roux
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
56'
C. Elliot ↔ G. May
Auckland
🔄
62'
J. Mantell ↔ S. James Ngor
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
73'
L. Verstraete ↔ C. Howieson
Auckland
🔄
73'
L. Rogerson ↔ V. Fitzharris
Auckland
🟨
78'
Andrew Redmayne
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
82'
O. Lavale ↔ B. Brandtman
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
87'
J. Girdwood-Reich ↔ J. Bidois
Auckland
🟨
90+5'
Harrison Steele
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
90+4'
H. Eames ↔ H. Steele
Central Coast Mariners
🔄
90+4'
↔ N. Paull
Central Coast Mariners

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 96.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 91.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
96.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
91.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Auckland Win 51.9%
Draw 21.6%
Central Coast Mariners Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Auckland1.63
Central Coast Mariners1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Auckland Auckland
WWDLW
40 GF / 26 GA
Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners
WLDWL
34 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
17
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
16
5.38
Shots on Goal
3.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Auckland Auckland 24 matches
Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 24 matches
Auckland Statistic Central Coast Mariners
11 Wins 7
8 Draws 8
5 Losses 9
40 Goals For 34
26 Goals Against 38
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
17 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 4
5.38 Shots On Goal 3.29
16 Total Shots 9.96
4.96 Corners 3.79
50.6% Ball Possession 43.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Auckland's more proactive style and Central Coast Mariners's more cautious structure. Central Coast Mariners seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Auckland expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Central Coast Mariners in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Central Coast Mariners having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Central Coast Mariners. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Auckland Analysis

Auckland arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 41 points after 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 40:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Sam Cosgrove (11 goals), J. Randall (9 goals), Lachlan Brook (8 goals), with creative support from F. De Vries (7 assists), J. Randall (6 assists), Guillermo May (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without O. Sail, F. De Vries, J. Brimmer, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Central Coast Mariners Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Central Coast Mariners have collected 29 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, while the 34:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. James Ngor (6 goals), A. Auglah (4 goals), A. McCalmont (4 goals), with creative support from M. Di Pizio (4 assists), L. Mauragis (3 assists), B. Brandtman (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without S. Clark, M. Di Pizio, T. Sainsbury, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Auckland won 2 times, Central Coast Mariners won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:7 from Auckland's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.4%)
Predicted formations: Auckland 4-4-2 / Central Coast Mariners 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Auckland 3, Central Coast Mariners 5
H2H summary: Auckland wins 2, draws 2, Central Coast Mariners wins 1
Stats
Auckland Auckland
Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
2
12 Corner Kicks 1
5 Fouls 15
6 Offsides 4
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Goal 6
8 Shots off Goal 5
8 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 10
7 Shots outsidebox 3
5 Goalkeeper Saves 5
434 Total passes 260
326 Passes accurate 152
1.43 expected_goals 1.84
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Auckland
Formation
Central Coast Mariners
M. Woud
M. Woud
H. Sakai
H. Sakai
D. Hall
D. Hall
J. Girdwood-Reich
J. Girdwood-Reich
C. Elliot
C. Elliot
L. Verstraete
L. Verstraete
L. F. Gallegos
L. F. Gallegos
L. Rogerson
L. Rogerson
L. Brook
L. Brook
J. Randall
J. Randall
S. Cosgrove
S. Cosgrove
A. Redmayne
A. Redmayne
S. Roux
S. Roux
J. Donachie
J. Donachie
B. Tapp
B. Tapp
L. Mauragis
L. Mauragis
A. Auglah
A. Auglah
C. Donnell
C. Donnell
J. Mantell
J. Mantell
H. Eames
H. Eames
O. Lavale
O. Lavale
N. Blair
🎯
N. Blair
Auckland 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
M. Woud
G
2
H. Sakai
🟨 4'
D
23
D. Hall
D
3
J. Girdwood-Reich
↓ 87'
D
17
C. Elliot
↓ 56'
D
6
L. Verstraete
↓ 73'
M
8
L. F. Gallegos
M
27
L. Rogerson
↓ 73'
M
77
L. Brook
🟨 27'
M
21
J. Randall
M
9
S. Cosgrove
F
Substitutes
12
J. Hilton
G
7
C. Howieson
↑ 73'
M
10
G. May
↑ 56'
F
35
J. Bidois
↑ 87'
52
L. Vicelich
D
18
F. Mckenlay
M
57
V. Fitzharris
↑ 73'
M
Central Coast Mariners 4-5-1
Starting XI
30
A. Redmayne
🟨 78'
G
15
S. Roux
🟨 49'
D
2
J. Donachie
🟨 16'
D
26
B. Tapp
D
5
L. Mauragis
D
72
A. Auglah
⚽ 19'
M
48
C. Donnell
M
45
J. Mantell
↓ 62'
M
6
H. Eames
↓ 90+4'
M
23
O. Lavale
↓ 82'
M
18
N. Blair
🎯 19'
F
Substitutes
40
D. Peraic-Cullen
G
7
C. Theoharous
F
16
H. Steele
↑ 90+4' 🟨 90+5'
M
3
N. Paull
↑ 90+4'
D
43
J. Nasso
D
11
S. James Ngor
↑ 62'
F
37
B. Brandtman
↑ 82'
F
Last matches: Auckland
26.07.26
Fri
Auckland
Tottenham
0
2
L
23.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
1
0
W
15.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Adelaide United
3
0
W
09.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Adelaide United
1
1
D
02.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne City
1
1
D
26.04.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
2
2
D
11.04.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne Victory
2
2
D
03.04.26
A-L
Auckland
Adelaide United
1
1
D
21.03.26
A-L
Auckland
Macarthur
1
2
L
14.03.26
A-L
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
2
1
W
08.03.26
A-L
Auckland
Perth Glory
2
2
D
28.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne City
3
0
W
21.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
5
0
W
17.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
1
1
D
07.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
1
0
W
31.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Perth Glory
1
2
L
24.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
16.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne City
1
2
L
09.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
2
0
W
05.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Macarthur
1
1
D
Last matches: Central Coast Mariners
25.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
0
4
L
10.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
2
2
D
07.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
1
2
L
04.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory
2
2
D
21.03.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory
1
4
L
14.03.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Adelaide United
1
1
D
04.03.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
3
1
W
28.02.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
0
0
D
22.02.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Western Sydney Wanderers
3
2
W
07.02.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
2
1
W
01.02.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory
1
0
W
24.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
2
2
D
18.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
1
1
D
10.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory
0
3
L
04.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Adelaide United
4
0
W
31.12.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
1
2
L
21.12.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Wellington Phoenix
1
3
L
12.12.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
1
2
L
06.12.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Sydney
1
2
L
29.11.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
0
0
D
H2H: Auckland vs Central Coast Mariners
19.04.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
0
1
L
24.01.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
12.12.25
H2H
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
1
2
W
16.03.25
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
28.12.24
H2H
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
1
4
W
Last matches: Auckland
26.07.26
Fri
Auckland
Tottenham
0
2
L
23.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
1
0
W
09.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Adelaide United
1
1
D
02.05.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne City
1
1
D
11.04.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne Victory
2
2
D
21.03.26
A-L
Auckland
Macarthur
1
2
L
08.03.26
A-L
Auckland
Perth Glory
2
2
D
28.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Melbourne City
3
0
W
07.02.26
A-L
Auckland
Sydney
1
0
W
24.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
01.01.26
A-L
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
1
3
L
06.12.25
A-L
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
3
1
W
30.11.25
A-L
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
1
2
L
23.11.25
A-L
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
1
1
D
01.11.25
A-L
Auckland
Adelaide United
2
1
W
25.10.25
A-L
Auckland
Western Sydney Wanderers
1
0
W
H2H at home: Auckland
19.04.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
0
1
L
24.01.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
16.03.25
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
Last matches: Central Coast Mariners
25.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
0
4
L
07.04.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
1
2
L
21.03.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory
1
4
L
04.03.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
3
1
W
07.02.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar
2
1
W
24.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
2
2
D
10.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory
0
3
L
04.01.26
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Adelaide United
4
0
W
21.12.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Wellington Phoenix
1
3
L
22.11.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Western Sydney Wanderers
2
3
L
07.11.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory
1
0
W
25.10.25
A-L
Central Coast Mariners
Sydney
0
2
L
H2H away: Central Coast Mariners
19.04.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
0
1
W
24.01.26
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D
16.03.25
H2H
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
2
2
D

Standings

A-League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 3 8 55:39 16 48
W D D L W
2 26 12 7 7 46:36 10 43
W W D D W
3 26 11 9 6 42:29 13 42
D L D D L
4 26 11 7 8 44:33 11 40
W D D L W
5 26 11 6 9 33:25 8 39
D D W D L
6 26 10 8 8 33:33 0 38
L W W W W
7 26 9 7 10 37:44 -7 34
W L L W W
8 26 9 6 11 36:48 -12 33
L W L W W
9 26 8 8 10 35:42 -7 32
L W D L D
10 26 8 7 11 32:39 -7 31
W D W D D
11 26 6 8 12 27:36 -9 26
L L D D L
12 26 5 6 15 27:43 -16 21
L L L L L
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - A-League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)

Missing Players

Auckland 3 missing
-
O. Sail
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
F. De Vries
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
J. Brimmer
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Central Coast Mariners 5 missing
-
S. Clark
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Di Pizio
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
T. Sainsbury
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
C. Theoharous
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. McCalmont
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT