ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: R. Cabrera
Aucas
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
E. Preciado
Aucas
14'
E. Pata · Assist: D. A. Romero Padilla
Independiente del Valle
45'
D. Reasco · Assist: L. Loor
Independiente del Valle
🟨
53'
R. Quinonez
Aucas
🟨
59'
L. Gustavino
Aucas
🔄
60'
P. Guzman ↔ R. Bolanos
Aucas
🔄
66'
R. Briones ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🟨
72'
S. Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
77'
A. Mena ↔ S. Porozo
Aucas
🔄
77'
E. Pata ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
77'
J. Sornoza ↔ D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
77'
D. Reasco ↔ J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
89'
H. Quintana · Assist: M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90'
A. Rodriguez ↔ H. Quintero
Independiente del Valle

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 48.1%
Draw 3.1%
Independiente del Valle Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.09
Independiente del Valle1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
22 GF / 17 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
52 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
2.08
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
15
4.78
Shots on Goal
6.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 20 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 25 matches
Aucas Statistic Independiente del Valle
10 Wins 18
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
22 Goals For 52
17 Goals Against 27
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 13
9 Over 1.5 21
6 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 4
4.78 Shots On Goal 6.54
13.56 Total Shots 19.5
5.44 Corners 6.79
54.2% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 43 points while Aucas sit 2 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente del Valle. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 32 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a 21:16 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Andres Mena (2 assists), Piero Guzmán (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 43 points after 18 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 40:19 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Emerson Pata (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), C. González (5 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 2 times, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:27 from Aucas's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Aucas wins 2, draws 4, Independiente del Valle wins 9

Lineups

Aucas
Formation
Independiente del Valle
H. Piedra
H. Piedra
A. Zova
A. Zova
L. Gustavino
L. Gustavino
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
R. Quinonez
R. Quinonez
S. Tapiero
S. Tapiero
M. Vera
M. Vera
P. Guzman
P. Guzman
A. Mena
A. Mena
E. Preciado
E. Preciado
L. Arroyo
L. Arroyo
A. Quintana
A. Quintana
D. A. Romero Padilla
🎯
D. A. Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal
M. Carabajal
R. Schunke
R. Schunke
L. Loor
🎯
L. Loor
J. Alcivar
J. Alcivar
A. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
R. Briones
R. Briones
J. Sornoza
J. Sornoza
E. Pata
E. Pata
D. Reasco
D. Reasco
Aucas 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
13
H. Piedra
37
A. Zova
16
L. Gustavino
🟨 59'
63
A. Garcia
28
R. Quinonez
🟨 53'
14
S. Tapiero
🟨 72'
57
M. Vera
21
P. Guzman
↓ 60'
18
A. Mena
↓ 77'
10
E. Preciado
🟨 6'
29
L. Arroyo
Substitutes
12
J. Cabezas
5
T. Serpa
33
S. Porozo
↑ 77'
20
D. S. Espinosa
31
B. Carabali
11
R. Bolanos
↑ 60'
Independiente del Valle 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Quintana
13
D. A. Romero Padilla
🎯 14'
14
M. Carabajal
5
R. Schunke
19
L. Loor
🎯 45'
6
J. Alcivar
17
A. Rodriguez
↓ 90'
16
R. Briones
↓ 66'
10
J. Sornoza
↓ 77'
31
E. Pata
⚽ 14' ↓ 77'
99
D. Reasco
⚽ 45' ↓ 77'
Substitutes
70
M. Peralta
15
G. Cortez
4
J. Espinoza
33
A. Velasco
8
Y. Ochoa
23
J. Viacava
28
H. Quintana
⚽ 89' ↑ 66'
11
M. Perello
🎯 89' ↑ 77'
52
Y. Vasquez
55
D. Guagua
↑ 77'
50
J. Angulo
↑ 77'
56
H. Quintero
↑ 90'
Last matches: Aucas
02.08.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
4
L
23.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Libertad
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
02.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
22.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
20.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
6
1
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
23.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
H2H: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
16.07.26
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
14.03.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2
2
D
19.07.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2
1
L
28.03.25
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
1
1
D
11.11.23
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
02.06.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2
0
L
11.02.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
L
23.07.22
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
5
0
W
07.03.22
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
1
0
L
14.08.21
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
1
0
L
14.03.21
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
4
L
18.11.20
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
3
D
25.08.20
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
1
1
D
Last matches: Aucas
26.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
4
L
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
H2H at home: Aucas
16.07.26
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
28.03.25
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
11.11.23
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
23.07.22
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
5
0
W
14.03.21
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
4
L
18.11.20
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
3
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
2
0
W
H2H away: Independiente del Valle
16.07.26
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
W
28.03.25
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1
2
W
01.09.24
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
2
W
11.11.23
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
0
L
23.07.22
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
5
0
L
14.03.21
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
4
W
18.11.20
H2H
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3
3
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4
Aucas Home
23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs