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FRANCE › LIGUE 3
17.10.2026 12:45
Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny

Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
71.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aubagne Win 28.8%
Draw 27.7%
Le Puy Foot Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aubagne0.99
Le Puy Foot1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aubagne Aubagne
WWDLW
9 GF / 16 GA
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot
WLDWL
14 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aubagne Aubagne 11 matches
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot 12 matches
Aubagne Statistic Le Puy Foot
2 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 5
9 Goals For 14
16 Goals Against 15
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
5 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Le Puy Foot's more proactive style and Aubagne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Le Puy Foot. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Le Puy Foot having the stronger overall control. Aubagne have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Le Puy Foot carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 13 points while Aubagne sit 16 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Aubagne Analysis

With 7 points from 9 games and a place of 16, Aubagne still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Le Puy Foot Analysis

So far, Le Puy Foot have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 11:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Aubagne won 3 times, Le Puy Foot won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from Aubagne's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.3%)
H2H summary: Aubagne wins 3, draws 1, Le Puy Foot wins 1

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 15:8 7 21
W W W D D
2 9 6 2 1 17:5 12 20
W L W W D
3 9 4 4 1 12:8 4 16
W D W W D
4 9 5 1 3 13:12 1 16
W W D W L
5 9 4 3 2 12:3 9 15
W D W D W
6 9 3 6 0 11:4 7 15
W D D D W
7 9 5 0 4 17:12 5 15
L W L W W
8 9 4 1 4 11:9 2 13
W L W L D
9 9 3 3 3 14:14 0 12
L L D L D
10 9 3 3 3 15:12 3 12
W L D W W
11 9 3 3 3 7:9 -2 12
L W D L D
12 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
D L D W L
13 9 2 4 3 8:12 -4 10
L D D W D
14 9 2 3 4 7:11 -4 9
D D L L D
15 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L W L L D
16 9 2 1 6 6:12 -6 7
L W L L D
17 9 1 2 6 5:15 -10 5
L D D L L
18 9 1 1 7 7:22 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation