URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Centenario
Referee: E. Varela
Atletico Torque
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
N. Lopez
Progreso
🟨
31'
Ramiro Lecchini
Atletico Torque
35'
F. Silvera
Atletico Torque
🟨
39'
Bautista Kociubinski
Atletico Torque
45'
N. Da Silva
Atletico Torque
🔄
46'
R. Lecchini ↔ F. Pizzichillo
Atletico Torque
🔄
46'
B. Kociubinski ↔ J. Quintana
Atletico Torque
🔄
57'
G. Trasante ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
🔄
57'
A. Codagnone ↔ J. Dos Santos
Progreso
🟨
67'
Juan Quintana
Atletico Torque
🔄
68'
N. Fernandez ↔ I. Lemmo
Progreso
🔄
68'
M. Copelotti ↔ D. Sanchez
Progreso
🔄
77'
S. Caceres ↔ J. Taran
Atletico Torque
🟨
79'
Franco Romero
Atletico Torque
🟨
80'
Mauro Martín
Progreso
🔄
85'
N. Da Silva ↔ A. Munoz
Atletico Torque
🔄
87'
M. Martin ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
🟨
88'
Ignacio Lemmo
Progreso
🔄
89'
E. Obregon ↔ K. Silva
Atletico Torque
🟨
90+2'
Federico García
Progreso

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Torque Win 74%
Draw 0%
Progreso Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Torque1.46
Progreso0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WWDLW
20 GF / 15 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
11 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
0.79
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
8
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 14 matches
Progreso Progreso 14 matches
Atletico Torque Statistic Progreso
5 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 8
20 Goals For 11
15 Goals Against 21
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
8 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico Torque's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Atletico Torque arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 20 points compared to Progreso in 15 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Progreso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Torque expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control.

Atletico Torque Analysis

So far, Atletico Torque have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 20 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 20:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Salomón Rodríguez (6 goals), E. Obregon (3 goals), F. Pizzichillo (2 goals), with creative support from Gonzalo Montes (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 14 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 11:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Copelotti (2 goals), D. Sanchez (1 goals), F. Fernandez (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Torque won 7 times, Progreso won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:19 from Atletico Torque's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Torque 5-4-1 / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Torque wins 7, draws 3, Progreso wins 5

Lineups

Atletico Torque
Formation
Progreso
F. Torgnascioli
F. Torgnascioli
E. Aguero
E. Aguero
F. Romero
F. Romero
G. Kagelmacher
G. Kagelmacher
F. Silvera
F. Silvera
S. Caceres
S. Caceres
B. Kociubinski
B. Kociubinski
G. Montes
G. Montes
E. Obregon
E. Obregon
N. Da Silva
N. Da Silva
R. Lecchini
R. Lecchini
A. Mehring
A. Mehring
G. Trasante
G. Trasante
F. Garcia
F. Garcia
H. Carroso
H. Carroso
M. Martin
M. Martin
A. Colombino
A. Colombino
A. Pinheiro
A. Pinheiro
A. Codagnone
A. Codagnone
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
N. Lopez
N. Lopez
M. Copelotti
M. Copelotti
Atletico Torque 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
F. Torgnascioli
G
17
E. Aguero
D
2
F. Romero
🟨 79'
D
24
G. Kagelmacher
D
26
F. Silvera
⚽ 35'
D
32
S. Caceres
↓ 77'
M
14
B. Kociubinski
↓ 46' 🟨 39'
M
20
G. Montes
M
10
E. Obregon
↓ 89'
F
11
N. Da Silva
⚽ 45' ↓ 85'
F
18
R. Lecchini
↓ 46' 🟨 31'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Rodriguez
G
3
K. Silva
↑ 89'
D
27
J. Taran
↑ 77'
D
21
N. Perez
D
5
F. Pizzichillo
↑ 46'
D
23
L. Dure
M
29
F. Martinez
30
J. Quintana
↑ 46' 🟨 67'
M
31
A. Munoz
↑ 85'
F
Progreso 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Mehring
G
16
G. Trasante
↓ 57'
D
3
F. Garcia
🟨 90+2'
D
13
H. Carroso
D
15
M. Martin
↓ 87' 🟨 80'
D
8
A. Colombino
M
5
A. Pinheiro
M
30
A. Codagnone
↓ 57'
M
29
N. Fernandez
↓ 68'
M
11
N. Lopez
⚽ 12'
M
23
M. Copelotti
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
33
A. Requena
G
31
F. Lopez
D
2
S. Cardozo Coitinho
D
14
F. Kidd
D
27
G. Silva
↑ 57'
D
7
F. Fernandez
M
10
I. Lemmo
↑ 68' 🟨 88'
M
18
G. Silva
↑ 87'
M
25
J. Dos Santos
↑ 57'
F
93
D. Sanchez
↑ 68'
F
Last matches: Atletico Torque
24.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Atletico Torque
Bahia
1
4
L
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
3
L
24.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Central Espanol
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
4
0
W
17.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
2
2
D
Last matches: Progreso
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
H2H: Atletico Torque vs Progreso
23.05.26
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
W
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
01.11.25
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
W
13.06.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
3
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
3
L
29.10.23
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
05.10.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
2
L
04.12.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
0
W
20.08.21
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
4
W
17.01.21
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
15.02.20
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
3
L
28.07.18
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
3
1
L
10.02.18
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
3
L
04.11.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
0
D
10.06.17
H2H
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
2
W
Last matches: Atletico Torque
24.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
0
W
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
15.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
4
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Central Espanol
2
1
W
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
2
2
D
09.11.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Penarol
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
2
L
12.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
2
2
D
03.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Miramar
3
0
W
20.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
24.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
4
0
W
08.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
1
1
D
19.11.24
Seg
Atletico Torque
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
16.11.24
Seg
Atletico Torque
Rentistas
0
5
L
01.11.24
Seg
Atletico Torque
Tacuarembo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Torque
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
13.06.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
3
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
3
L
05.10.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
2
L
04.12.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
0
W
15.02.20
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
3
L
10.02.18
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
3
L
04.11.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
0
D
Last matches: Progreso
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
01.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
1
2
L
03.12.23
Seg
Progreso
Uruguay Montevideo
3
1
W
24.11.23
Seg
Progreso
SUD America
4
0
W
14.11.23
Seg
Progreso
Atenas
1
1
D
H2H away: Progreso
10.05.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
L
13.06.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
3
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
3
W
05.10.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
2
W
04.12.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
0
L
15.02.20
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
1
3
W
10.02.18
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
3
W
04.11.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Progreso
0
0
D

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 4 5 36:22 14 40
L D W W D
2 21 12 4 5 32:19 13 40
W D W L W
3 20 10 8 2 26:16 10 38
D D D D W
4 21 10 5 6 33:25 8 35
W W L W W
5 21 9 6 6 30:22 8 33
L D W L L
6 21 10 2 9 32:28 4 32
L D W L W
7 20 9 5 6 27:25 2 32
D D W L W
8 21 9 5 7 26:25 1 32
W W D W D
9 20 6 7 7 23:22 1 25
L D W D L
10 20 7 4 9 22:21 1 25
D D W W L
11 20 5 9 6 16:17 -1 24
D D D L L
12 21 6 4 11 25:33 -8 22
W L D L L
13 21 6 4 11 19:29 -10 22
L D D L L
14 21 4 9 8 20:28 -8 21
L D D D L
15 21 4 4 13 17:32 -15 16
W L L W L
16 20 4 4 12 12:32 -20 16
W L L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)