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30.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Centenario
Referee: J. Feres
Atletico Torque
Match Timeline
Penarol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Eric Remedi
Penarol
⚽
21'
M. Arezo
Penarol
⚽
23'
E. Obregon
Atletico Torque
🟨
27'
Brian Gutierrez
Atletico Torque
🔄
32'
M. Olivera ↔ T. N. Espinosa Dovat
Penarol
🔄
32'
F. Romero ↔ I. Alegre
Penarol
🔄
53'
D. Guzman ↔ N. Da Silva
Atletico Torque
🔄
58'
J. Cabrera ↔ Jesus Trindade
Penarol
🟨
61'
Jesús Trindade
Penarol
🔄
74'
N. Fernandez ↔ Lucas Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
74'
M. Arezo ↔ A. Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
79'
L. Andrade ↔ L. Dure
Atletico Torque
🟨
87'
Lucas Ferreira
Penarol

Atletico Torque vs Penarol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Torque Win 43.6%
Draw 15.1%
Penarol Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Torque1.41
Penarol1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WWDLW
52 GF / 38 GA
Penarol Penarol
WLDWL
57 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
20
BTTS Yes
20
18
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 30 matches
Penarol Penarol 36 matches
Atletico Torque Statistic Penarol
16 Wins 19
5 Draws 8
9 Losses 9
52 Goals For 57
38 Goals Against 33
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
20 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 2.67
0 Total Shots 8.89
0 Corners 2.67
0% Ball Possession 28.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Torque come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Torque expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Penarol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Penarol. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Atletico Torque Analysis

Atletico Torque approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 53 points after 28 outings. With 16 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 51:32, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Penarol Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 55 points from 28 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 17 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 46:23 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Torque won 3 times, Penarol won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:24 from Atletico Torque's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Torque 4-3-3 / Penarol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Atletico Torque wins 3, draws 2, Penarol wins 10

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
5 32 14 11 7 36:27 9 53
L L L D W
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 32 14 8 10 41:39 2 50
L W W D D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 32 10 10 12 37:39 -2 40
W D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 32 10 6 16 26:47 -21 36
W L D L W
12 32 8 11 13 30:39 -9 35
L L W L W
13 32 9 7 16 32:43 -11 34
W D L L L
14 32 8 9 15 29:37 -8 33
L L L L D
15 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
16 32 8 5 19 28:47 -19 29
D L W W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)