BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Edson Carioca
Mirassol
🔄
46'
B. Zapelli ↔ Julimar
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
58'
Arthur Dias
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
63'
Edson Carioca ↔ Andre Luis
Mirassol
🟨
66'
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
68'
L. Esquivel ↔ Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
71'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
71'
Denilson ↔ Neto Moura
Mirassol
🟨
72'
Willian Machado
Mirassol
🔄
78'
S. Mendoza ↔ Leozinho
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
78'
Felipinho ↔ Diogo Riquelme
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
81'
Shaylon ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
81'
Jose Aldo ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
🔄
83'
Arthur Dias ↔ C. Teran
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
85'
Eduardo
Mirassol
88'
K. Viveros · Assist: Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds 1.89
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.8%
1.89
BTTS BTTS No
35%
1.70
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
1.57
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-0
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 75.8%
Draw 0%
Mirassol Win 24.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.3
Mirassol1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
23 GF / 18 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
25 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
9
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
10
5
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 17 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 22 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Mirassol
8 Wins 8
3 Draws 4
6 Losses 10
23 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 27
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
9 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 7
5 Shots On Goal 4.45
12.18 Total Shots 13.14
5.12 Corners 5.36
48.4% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mirassol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mirassol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Paranaense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 24 points compared to Mirassol in 19 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 21:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Viveros (8 goals), S. Mendoza (5 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 19 with 13 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 17:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), C. Cuesta (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 1 times, Mirassol won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 6, Mirassol 4
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 1, draws 0, Mirassol wins 0
Stats
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol Mirassol
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 7
7 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 4
3 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
396 Total passes 405
334 Passes accurate 345
1.24 expected_goals 0.53
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense
Formation
Mirassol
Santos
Santos
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias
F. Aguirre
F. Aguirre
L. Esquivel
L. Esquivel
G. Benavidez
G. Benavidez
Jadson
Jadson
Felipinho
Felipinho
Claudinho
Claudinho
S. Mendoza
S. Mendoza
B. Zapelli
B. Zapelli
K. Viveros
K. Viveros
Walter
Walter
Daniel Borges
Daniel Borges
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo
Denilson
Denilson
Carlos Eduardo
Carlos Eduardo
Shaylon
Shaylon
Alesson
Alesson
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
23
Santos
G
4
Arthur Dias
↓ 83' 🟨 58'
D
33
F. Aguirre
D
37
L. Esquivel
↓ 68'
D
29
G. Benavidez
🟨 66'
M
16
Jadson
M
5
Felipinho
↓ 78'
M
26
Claudinho
M
7
S. Mendoza
↓ 78'
F
10
B. Zapelli
↓ 46'
F
9
K. Viveros
⚽ 88'
F
Substitutes
42
Mateus Soares
11
Isaac
47
Chiqueti
M
3
Leo
D
20
Julimar
↑ 46'
F
22
C. Teran
↑ 83'
D
70
Renan Peixoto
F
2
Gilberto Junior
53
Dudu Kogitzki
M
21
Leozinho
↑ 78'
F
8
Joao Cruz
🎯 88' ↑ 68'
63
Diogo Riquelme
↑ 78'
M
Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Walter
G
20
Daniel Borges
D
34
Joao Victor
D
3
Willian Machado
🟨 72'
D
6
Reinaldo
D
21
Jose Aldo
↓ 81'
M
8
Denilson
↓ 71'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
↓ 71'
7
Shaylon
↓ 81'
M
77
Alesson
M
95
Edson Carioca
↓ 63' 🟨 31'
F
Substitutes
23
Alex Muralha
G
90
Thomazella
G
33
Eduardo
↑ 71' 🟨 85'
M
25
Neto Moura
↑ 71'
12
Victor Luis
D
10
Chico Kim
↑ 81'
M
2
Lucas Oliveira
↑ 81'
D
99
Andre Luis
↑ 63'
F
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
Last matches: Mirassol
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
11.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
H2H: Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol
30.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
Last matches: Mirassol
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
30.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 3.37
Home 1.89
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.64
Draw 2.10
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.49
Over 1.75 1.62
Over 2.0 1.85
Over 2.25 2.18
Over 2.5 2.51
Over 2.75 2.87
Over 3.5 4.85
Under 0.5 7.77
Under 1.5 2.74
Under 1.75 2.39
Under 2.0 2.04
Under 2.25 1.74
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.5 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.40
Home 1.85
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.38
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.33
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.68
Draw 3.33
Home 1.89
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.30
Draw 1.94
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.65
Draw 2.26
Home 2.24
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.25
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.55
Over 2.0 1.75
Over 2.25 2.14
Over 2.5 2.45
Over 2.75 2.80
Over 3.0 3.68
Over 3.25 4.03
Over 3.5 4.40
Over 3.75 5.64
Over 4.0 8.30
Over 4.25 8.15
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 18.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 6.75
Under 0.75 6.10
Under 1.0 5.45
Under 1.25 3.28
Under 1.5 2.54
Under 1.75 2.25
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.74
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.36
Under 3.0 1.22
Under 3.25 1.17
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 3.75 1.08
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 3.35
Home 1.81
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.06
Home 2.48
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.43
Home 2.23
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.43
Over 1.75 1.55
Over 2.0 1.75
Over 2.25 2.06
Over 2.5 2.35
Over 2.75 2.80
Over 3.0 3.70
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 10.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 1.75 2.45
Under 2.0 2.08
Under 2.25 1.77
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.27
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.19
Under 4.5 1.04

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
W W D D D
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
W L D W D
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
D L W D L
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
W W D L D
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
W W W L W
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
W L D L D
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
L W W D L
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
L D L L D
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
W L W D W
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
W W L W L
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
D W D W L
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
L D W D L
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
L W L D W
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
L L W D W
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
W L L W D
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
L W D L D
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
L L L W D
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
W L W D W
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
L W L D W
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
L L L D L

Missing Players

Atletico Paranaense 6 missing
-
Mycael
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
L. Esquivel
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Leo Derik
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
C. Teran
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Luiz Gustavo
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
J. Portilla
Missing Fixture International duty
OUT
Mirassol 4 missing
-
Igor Formiga
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Neto Moura
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Nathan Fogaca
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT