CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
TD Place Stadium
Referee: F. Stasolla
Atlético Ottawa
Match Timeline
Forge
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
M. Aparicio
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
56'
A. Aromatario
Forge
🟨
59'
D. Mejia
Atlético Ottawa
67'
A. S. Abatneh N.
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
68'
J. Assi ↔ J. Coulanges
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
68'
T. Borges ↔ M. Filion
Forge
🔄
68'
B. Wright ↔ I. Oketokoun
Forge
🔄
76'
N. Jensen ↔ M. Babouli
Forge
🔄
76'
A. Aromatario ↔ D. Krutzen
Forge
🔄
80'
E. Garcia ↔ W. Timoteo
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
80'
H. Massunda ↔ M. Bourgeois
Forge
84'
I. Oketokoun · Assist: M. Bourgeois
Forge
87'
J. Coulanges · Assist: B. Tabla
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
90'
G. Antinoro ↔ E. Myklebust
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
90'
J. Villal ↔ K. Habibullah
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
90'
B. Tabla ↔ L. Cloutier
Atlético Ottawa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 24.6%
Draw 0%
Forge Win 75.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa0.63
Forge1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
5 GF / 17 GA
Forge Forge
WLDWL
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
0.63
Average Goals Scored
1.13
2.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
3
BTTS Yes
2
3
Over 2.5
2
1.25
Shots on Goal
2.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 8 matches
Forge Forge 8 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic Forge
2 Wins 5
1 Draws 2
5 Losses 1
5 Goals For 9
17 Goals Against 5
0.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
3 BTTS Yes 2
6 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 2
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 2
1.25 Shots On Goal 2.63
3.38 Total Shots 8.75
1.25 Corners 3.75
36.4% Ball Possession 28%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Forge's more proactive style and Atlético Ottawa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlético Ottawa expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Forge in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Forge having the stronger overall control. Forge look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Forge. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Forge carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Atlético Ottawa sit 4 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 7 points after 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 5:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Garcia (1 goals), J. Villal (1 goals), K. Habibullah (1 goals), with creative support from Manny Aparicio (2 assists), K. Habibullah (1 assists), D. Aguilar (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Forge Analysis

Forge come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 6 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 8:1 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on B. Wright (3 goals), A. Batisse (1 goals), B. Paton (1 goals), with creative support from B. Paton (2 assists), H. Massunda (1 assists), N. Jensen (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 6 times, Forge won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 3-4-3 / Forge 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 6, draws 4, Forge wins 5

Lineups

Atlético Ottawa
Formation
Forge
T. Crampton
T. Crampton
R. Mbomio
R. Mbomio
A. S. Abatneh N.
A. S. Abatneh N.
D. Aguilar
D. Aguilar
J. Assi
J. Assi
M. Aparicio
M. Aparicio
J. Castro
J. Castro
G. Antinoro
G. Antinoro
J. Villal
J. Villal
E. Garcia
E. Garcia
B. Tabla
🎯
B. Tabla
D. Bertaud
D. Bertaud
R. Rama
R. Rama
D. Nimick
D. Nimick
A. Batisse
A. Batisse
M. Jevremovic
M. Jevremovic
N. Jensen
N. Jensen
A. Aromatario
A. Aromatario
B. Paton
B. Paton
T. Borges
T. Borges
B. Wright
B. Wright
H. Massunda
H. Massunda
Atlético Ottawa 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
T. Crampton
18
R. Mbomio
23
A. S. Abatneh N.
⚽ 67'
5
D. Aguilar
14
J. Assi
↓ 68'
10
M. Aparicio
🟨 43'
2
J. Castro
11
G. Antinoro
↓ 90'
8
J. Villal
↓ 90'
7
E. Garcia
↓ 80'
13
B. Tabla
🎯 87' ↓ 90'
Substitutes
31
C. Kalongo
9
E. Myklebust
↑ 90'
20
J. Coulanges
⚽ 87' ↑ 68'
84
S. Kozlovskiy
30
K. Habibullah
↑ 90'
27
W. Timoteo
↑ 80'
28
L. Cloutier
↑ 90'
Forge 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
D. Bertaud
24
R. Rama
5
D. Nimick
8
A. Batisse
3
M. Jevremovic
22
N. Jensen
↓ 76'
23
A. Aromatario
↓ 76' 🟨 56'
6
B. Paton
19
T. Borges
↓ 68'
9
B. Wright
↓ 68'
17
H. Massunda
↓ 80'
Substitutes
36
D. Bontis
10
K. Bekker
18
M. Babouli
↑ 76'
87
M. Bourgeois
🎯 84' ↑ 80'
4
D. Krutzen
↑ 76'
12
M. Filion
↑ 68'
7
I. Oketokoun
⚽ 84' ↑ 68'
Last matches: Atlético Ottawa
04.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
0
3
L
01.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
09.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
5
3
W
06.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Pacific FC
2
2
D
17.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
01.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
4
L
26.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
1
0
W
12.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
1
3
L
04.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
0
2
L
25.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
5
L
18.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
2
L
Last matches: Forge
05.07.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
2
1
W
01.07.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
3
2
W
10.06.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
07.06.26
Can
Forge
York United
4
1
W
31.05.26
Can
Forge
Cavalry FC
1
0
W
13.05.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
1
0
W
02.05.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
26.04.26
Can
Forge
Pacific FC
1
0
W
18.04.26
Can
Forge
Cavalry FC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Can
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
W
11.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
1
4
L
04.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
H2H: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge
24.05.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
2
1
W
04.04.26
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
L
26.10.25
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
1
2
W
21.09.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
L
12.07.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
13.05.25
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
2
2
D
02.11.24
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
1
0
L
12.10.24
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
0
2
W
10.08.24
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
3
0
L
28.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
4
3
W
25.05.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
3
0
W
07.10.23
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
0
1
W
26.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
0
0
D
25.06.23
H2H
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
4
3
L
Last matches: Atlético Ottawa
04.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
0
3
L
09.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
5
3
W
17.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
26.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
1
D
18.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
2
L
H2H at home: Atlético Ottawa
24.05.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
2
1
W
21.09.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
28.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
4
3
W
25.05.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
3
0
W
26.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
0
0
D
Last matches: Forge
05.07.26
Can
Forge
Supra du Quebec
2
1
W
07.06.26
Can
Forge
York United
4
1
W
02.05.26
Can
Forge
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
26.04.26
Can
Forge
Pacific FC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Can
Forge
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.02.26
CON
Forge
Tigres UANL
1
4
L
H2H away: Forge
24.05.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
2
1
L
21.09.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
1
1
D
28.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
4
3
L
25.05.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
3
0
L
26.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
0
0
D

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Forge Away
12 10 1 1 20:7 13 31
W W W W W
2 11 8 2 1 22:5 17 26
W W W L W
3 12 5 2 5 18:22 -4 17
L W W L D
4 13 4 3 6 17:20 -3 15
W L W L L
5 12 4 2 6 15:14 1 14
W L W W L
6 10 3 3 4 13:21 -8 12
L L L L D
7 10 3 2 5 14:16 -2 11
L L D W D
8 12 0 3 9 13:27 -14 3
L L L D D
Promotion - Canadian Premier League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)