BRAZIL SERIE A
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MRV Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.10
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
63.9%
1.70
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.10
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.4%
1.17
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 36.1%
Draw 18.1%
RB Bragantino Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.15
RB Bragantino1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
25 GF / 25 GA
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WLDWL
28 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1
9
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
9
4.25
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 20 matches
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 21 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic RB Bragantino
8 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
8 Losses 7
25 Goals For 28
25 Goals Against 21
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1
9 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 5
4.25 Shots On Goal 5
12.65 Total Shots 16
4.65 Corners 5.6
45% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features RB Bragantino's more proactive style and Atletico-MG's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors RB Bragantino. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico-MG expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and RB Bragantino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward RB Bragantino having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atletico-MG Analysis

Atletico-MG sit 11 with 24 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 22:23 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (3 goals), Tomás Cuello (2 goals), Mateo Cassierra (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), Renan Lodi (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 30 points after 19 outings. With 9 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 26:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Isidro Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), Juninho Capixaba (2 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (3 assists), Isidro Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 6 times, RB Bragantino won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1 / RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 6, draws 5, RB Bragantino wins 2
Last matches: Atletico-MG
26.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
1
W
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
Last matches: RB Bragantino
26.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Coritiba
0
0
D
17.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Internacional
3
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Santos
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Remo
4
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Mirassol
1
0
W
03.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Flamengo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Botafogo
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Bahia
0
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Gremio
1
1
D
25.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Corinthians
0
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
H2H: Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino
29.07.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
04.02.26
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
16.11.25
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
03.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
3
0
W
12.06.24
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
2
W
26.10.23
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
2
W
10.06.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
07.09.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
11.05.22
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
05.12.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
4
3
W
29.08.21
H2H
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
11.01.21
H2H
Bragantino
Atletico-MG
2
2
D
13.09.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bragantino
2
1
W
Last matches: Atletico-MG
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H at home: Atletico-MG
29.07.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
03.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
3
0
W
10.06.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
07.09.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
05.12.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
4
3
W
13.09.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Bragantino
2
1
W
Last matches: RB Bragantino
17.07.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Santos
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Bahia
0
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Gremio
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Corinthians
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
RB Bragantino
Coritiba
1
0
W
H2H away: RB Bragantino
29.07.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
03.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
2
1
L
22.09.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
3
0
L
10.06.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
07.09.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
05.12.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
4
3
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 3.30
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.30
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.46
Draw 3.35
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.10
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.25
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.21
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.57
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 2.75 2.45
Over 3.0 2.90
Over 3.25 3.26
Over 3.5 3.60
Over 3.75 4.34
Over 4.0 5.90
Over 4.25 6.54
Over 4.5 7.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.40
Under 0.75 7.19
Under 1.0 6.10
Under 1.25 3.77
Under 1.5 2.90
Under 1.75 2.59
Under 2.0 2.24
Under 2.25 1.96
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.34
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.30
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.10
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 2.45
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.58
Over 2.25 1.86
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.48
Over 3.0 3.15
Over 3.25 3.55
Over 3.5 3.95
Over 4.5 8.50
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.35
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 2.75 1.53
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
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