Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
49.5%
|
2.00 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
1.44 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
82.2%
|
1.48 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.15 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
5.50 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
8.50 |
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 36.8%
Draw 13.7%
Real Madrid Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.62
Real Madrid2.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
23 GF / 15 GA
Real Madrid
WLDWL
31 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2.09
Average Goals Scored
2.58
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
10
5.71
Shots on Goal
8.29
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Madrid
11 matches
Real Madrid
12 matches
| Atletico Madrid | Statistic | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 10 |
| 1 | Draws | 1 |
| 4 | Losses | 1 |
| 23 | Goals For | 31 |
| 15 | Goals Against | 11 |
| 2.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.58 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 10 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 5.71 | Shots On Goal | 8.29 |
| 15.71 | Total Shots | 20 |
| 5.29 | Corners | 7.29 |
| 56.3% | Ball Possession | 52% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 5 times, Real Madrid won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:26 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.
1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 2, Real Madrid 3
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 5, draws 4, Real Madrid wins 6
Standings
La Liga
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:7 | 24 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 |
Real Madrid
Away
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 11 | 15 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8:6 | 2 | 15 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 |
Atletico Madrid
Home
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 8 | 13 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 1 | 13 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:6 | 5 | 11 |
D
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 9 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 8 |
D
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:13 | -7 | 8 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 7 |
W
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 7 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 7 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:21 | -10 | 7 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 5 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | -2 | 5 |
L
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 5 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:17 | -6 | 5 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2:10 | -8 | 4 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:11 | -8 | 3 |
L
D
D
L
D
|
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