SPAIN LA LIGA
20.09.2026 14:15
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.5%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.5%
2.00
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.48
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 36.8%
Draw 13.7%
Real Madrid Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.62
Real Madrid2.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
23 GF / 15 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
31 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2.09
Average Goals Scored
2.58
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
10
5.71
Shots on Goal
8.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 11 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 12 matches
Atletico Madrid Statistic Real Madrid
6 Wins 10
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 1
23 Goals For 31
15 Goals Against 11
2.09 Avg Goals Scored 2.58
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 1
5.71 Shots On Goal 8.29
15.71 Total Shots 20
5.29 Corners 7.29
56.3% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 5 times, Real Madrid won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:26 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 2, Real Madrid 3
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 5, draws 4, Real Madrid wins 6

Standings

La Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 31:7 24 21
W W W W W
2 6 5 0 1 17:6 11 15
W W L W W
3 6 5 0 1 8:6 2 15
W W W L W
4 6 4 1 1 14:6 8 13
W W L W D
5 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
L W W D L
6 7 3 2 2 11:6 5 11
D L L W W
7 6 2 3 1 9:7 2 9
L D W W D
8 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D D W W L
9 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W L
10 7 2 2 3 6:13 -7 8
D L L L W
11 7 1 4 2 8:6 2 7
W D D D L
12 7 2 1 4 10:10 0 7
L L W D L
13 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W D W L
14 7 2 1 4 11:21 -10 7
L L W L W
15 6 1 2 3 10:11 -1 5
W L L L D
16 5 1 2 2 7:9 -2 5
L D W D L
17 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
L D D L W
18 7 1 2 4 11:17 -6 5
W L D L L
19 6 1 1 4 2:10 -8 4
W L L L L
20 6 0 3 3 3:11 -8 3
L D D L D
Champions League league stage
Europa League league stage
ECL Playoffs
Relegation