PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Campeones del 36
Referee: Rudy Mendez, Peru
Atletico Grau
Match Timeline
UCV Moquegua
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
53'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🔄
62'
R. Ruidiaz ↔ Y. Ruidiaz
Atletico Grau
🔄
62'
P. de la Cruz ↔ A. Vasquez
Atletico Grau
🔄
66'
A. Davila ↔ N. Chavez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
66'
Bryan Angulo ↔ J. Collazos
UCV Moquegua
77'
C. Neira
Atletico Grau
🟨
81'
Ignacio Tapia
Atletico Grau
VAR
83'
Eros Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🟥
84'
Eros Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🔄
85'
G. E. Alfaro Martinez ↔ E. Rodas
Atletico Grau
🔄
87'
R. Chipao ↔ M. Negron
UCV Moquegua
🔄
87'
Y. Zapata ↔ D. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
88'
C. Mejia ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
89'
A. de la Cruz ↔ F. Oncoy
Atletico Grau
🔄
89'
C. Neira ↔ D. Barreto
Atletico Grau

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.4%
1.57
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
1.68
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.1%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Atletico Grau Win 60.4%
Draw 0%
UCV Moquegua Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Grau1
UCV Moquegua1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WWDLW
11 GF / 18 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.69
Average Goals Scored
1
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
5
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
11
3.75
Shots on Goal
3.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 16 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 17 matches
Atletico Grau Statistic UCV Moquegua
3 Wins 5
4 Draws 3
9 Losses 9
11 Goals For 17
18 Goals Against 25
0.69 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 7
3.75 Shots On Goal 3.56
11.13 Total Shots 10.13
4.25 Corners 3.25
46.3% Ball Possession 39.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UCV Moquegua. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Grau expected to line up in 3-4-3 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 18 with 13 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 11:17 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Ruidiaz (3 goals), Isaac Camargo (2 goals), A. Vasquez (1 goals), with creative support from C. Neira (2 assists), Rafael Guarderas (2 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 17 points from 15 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 17:23, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), J. Collazos (4 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Grau 3-4-3 / UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
Stats
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
4 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 4
12 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 8
383 Total passes 239
310 Passes accurate 159
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Atletico Grau
Formation
UCV Moquegua
A. Calderon
A. Calderon
D. Rodriguez
D. Rodriguez
R. Tapia
R. Tapia
L. Acevedo
L. Acevedo
I. Tapia
I. Tapia
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
P. de la Cruz
P. de la Cruz
A. de la Cruz
A. de la Cruz
R. Guarderas
R. Guarderas
C. Neira
C. Neira
R. Ruidiaz
R. Ruidiaz
C. Grados
C. Grados
E. Montenegro
E. Montenegro
J. Lojas
J. Lojas
C. Enciso
C. Enciso
N. Amasifuen
N. Amasifuen
R. Chipao
R. Chipao
C. Mejia
C. Mejia
E. Lastre
E. Lastre
Y. Zapata
Y. Zapata
A. Davila
A. Davila
Bryan Angulo
Bryan Angulo
Atletico Grau 5-4-1
Starting XI
33
A. Calderon
G
4
D. Rodriguez
D
27
R. Tapia
D
2
L. Acevedo
D
3
I. Tapia
🟨 81'
D
25
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
↓ 85'
D
10
P. de la Cruz
↓ 62'
M
66
A. de la Cruz
↓ 89'
M
5
R. Guarderas
M
22
C. Neira
⚽ 77' ↓ 89'
M
9
R. Ruidiaz
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Fuentes
G
29
E. Franco
M
13
F. Oncoy
↑ 89'
M
6
E. Rodas
↑ 85'
D
11
N. Delgadillo
F
7
D. Barreto
↑ 89'
M
24
Y. Ruidiaz
↑ 62'
F
16
J. Ataupillco
D
20
A. Vasquez
↑ 62'
M
UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
C. Grados
G
22
E. Montenegro
🟥 84'
D
13
J. Lojas
3
C. Enciso
15
N. Amasifuen
D
25
R. Chipao
↓ 87'
M
8
C. Mejia
↓ 88'
M
7
E. Lastre
M
17
Y. Zapata
↓ 87' 🟨 53'
M
16
A. Davila
↓ 66'
M
11
Bryan Angulo
↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
29
R. Figueroa
G
10
N. Chavez
↑ 66'
90
J. Collazos
↑ 66'
F
9
M. Negron
↑ 87'
F
20
D. Ramirez
↑ 87'
M
4
A. Perleche
D
14
C. Ramirez
↑ 88'
6
J. Jimenez
66
M. Panizo
D
Last matches: Atletico Grau
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cienciano
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
ADT
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sporting Cristal
4
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Last matches: Atletico Grau
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cienciano
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sporting Cristal
4
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
0
D
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.99
Draw 3.66
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.78
Draw 2.15
Home 2.09
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.89
Over 2.5 2.14
Over 2.75 2.47
Over 3.0 3.12
Over 3.25 3.18
Under 1.5 2.96
Under 1.75 2.61
Under 2.0 2.28
Under 2.25 1.91
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.51
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.32
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 3.70
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.40
Home 1.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.82
Draw 3.66
Home 1.59
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.62
Draw 2.06
Home 2.16
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.68
Draw 2.46
Home 1.93
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.20
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.57
Over 2.25 1.84
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.44
Over 3.0 2.96
Over 3.25 3.38
Over 3.5 3.58
Over 3.75 4.55
Over 4.0 6.25
Over 4.25 6.65
Over 4.5 6.90
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.40
Under 0.75 6.85
Under 1.0 6.25
Under 1.25 3.76
Under 1.5 2.83
Under 1.75 2.54
Under 2.0 2.18
Under 2.25 1.85
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.80
Draw 3.50
Home 1.63
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 2.18
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.20
Draw 2.55
Home 1.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 2.75 2.40
Over 3.0 3.00
Over 3.25 3.35
Over 3.5 3.65
Over 3.75 4.50
Over 4.0 6.10
Over 4.25 6.40
Over 4.5 6.75
Under 1.5 2.95
Under 2.0 2.25
Under 2.25 1.86
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.26
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.15
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L