🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
09.09.2026 23:30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee: Armando Villarrea, USA
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
Orlando City SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
David Brekalo
Atlanta United FC
26'
Antoine Griezmann · Assist: Joran Gerbet
Orlando City SC
🟨
42'
David Brekalo
Orlando City SC
🔄
45'
Griffin Dorsey ↔ Zakaria Taifi
Orlando City SC
🔄
45'
Ajani Fortune ↔ Adrian Gill
Atlanta United FC
58'
Iván Angulo · Assist: Martin Ojeda
Orlando City SC
VAR
58'
Iván Angulo
Orlando City SC
🔄
64'
Tristan Muyumba ↔ Luke Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🟨
67'
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United FC
🔄
71'
Bernardo Rhein ↔ Tyrese Spicer
Orlando City SC
🔄
74'
Martin Ojeda ↔ Marco Pašalić
Orlando City SC
🔄
74'
Joran Gerbet ↔ Wilder Cartagena
Orlando City SC
77'
Antoine Griezmann · Assist: Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
🔄
78'
Aleksey Miranchuk ↔ Fafà Picault
Atlanta United FC
🔄
78'
Paulo Díaz ↔ Enea Mihaj
Atlanta United FC
🔄
78'
Breel Embolo ↔ Sergi Santos
Atlanta United FC
🔄
79'
David Brekalo ↔ Iago Teodoro
Orlando City SC
🟨
88'
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
90+7'
Tyrese Spicer
Atlanta United FC

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds 2.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
2.22
BTTS Yes
88%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.47
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.4%
1.49
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 55.3%
Draw 5.6%
Orlando City SC Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.73
Orlando City SC1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
35 GF / 43 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
45 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
2.37
17
BTTS Yes
19
16
Over 2.5
20
4.09
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 27 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 27 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic Orlando City SC
8 Wins 9
6 Draws 5
13 Losses 13
35 Goals For 45
43 Goals Against 64
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 2.37
17 BTTS Yes 19
23 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 20
10 Over 3.5 15
3 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 5
4.09 Shots On Goal 4.74
12.65 Total Shots 12.04
4.87 Corners 4.04
51.1% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orlando City SC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Orlando City SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC sit 13 with 21 points after 22 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 25:38 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (2 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orlando City SC Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Orlando City SC have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, while the 37:54 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (3 goals), Antoine Griezmann (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (4 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 5 times, Orlando City SC won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / Orlando City SC 4-4-2
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 4, Orlando City SC 3
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 5, draws 4, Orlando City SC wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)