🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
18.04.2026 23:30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee: A. Chapman
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+1'
Tristan Muyumba
Atlanta United FC
🔄
56'
W. Madrigal ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
61'
C. Espinoza · Assist: H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
E. Tagseth ↔ P. Yazbek
Nashville SC
🔄
68'
C. Sanchez ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
🔄
68'
E. Baez ↔ P. Amador
Atlanta United FC
🔄
74'
A. Fortune ↔ S. Lobjanidze
Atlanta United FC
🟨
76'
Lucas Hoyos
Atlanta United FC
🔄
82'
E. Latte Lath ↔ C. Togashi
Atlanta United FC
🔄
84'
A. Qasem ↔ S. Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
84'
A. Najar ↔ R. Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC
90'
S. Mohammed
Nashville SC

Atlanta United FC vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 60.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
60.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 26.9%
Draw 8.4%
Nashville SC Win 64.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1
Nashville SC1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
31 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.59
5
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
8
3.71
Shots on Goal
4.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 11 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 17 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic Nashville SC
3 Wins 10
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 2
14 Goals For 31
15 Goals Against 10
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.59
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 4
3.71 Shots On Goal 4.77
11 Total Shots 11.92
4.57 Corners 4
55.4% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nashville SC's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Nashville SC seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Atlanta United FC sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Nashville SC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nashville SC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nashville SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Miranchuk (4 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 goals), Tomás Jacob (1 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 assists), E. Baez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Sergio Santos unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 15:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on S. Surridge (7 goals), C. Espinoza (2 goals), H. Mukhtar (2 goals), with creative support from P. Yazbek (3 assists), C. Espinoza (2 assists), H. Mukhtar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. Although they are without R. Baker-Whiting, J. Palacios, S. Surridge, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 3 times, Nashville SC won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / Nashville SC 4-4-2
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 3, Nashville SC 2
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 3, draws 5, Nashville SC wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 4 2 47:17 30 52
W W W W D
2 22 12 6 4 56:41 15 42
W L D L D
3 21 11 4 6 39:28 11 37
D D W W W
4 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D W L L
5 22 10 5 7 40:32 8 35
W W D W L
6 22 8 7 7 49:51 -2 31
L D W D W
7 22 7 7 8 36:31 5 28
D D L L D
8 22 7 5 10 32:46 -14 26
L D L L W
9 22 7 4 11 37:54 -17 25
D W L D L
10 22 5 10 7 32:38 -6 25
D W D W D
11 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
12 22 6 6 10 34:39 -5 24
W D D W W
13 22 6 3 13 25:38 -13 21
L W W W L
14 22 5 6 11 30:46 -16 21
L D W D D
15 22 5 5 12 31:39 -8 20
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)