🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee: A. Chapman
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+1'
Tristan Muyumba
Atlanta United FC
🔄
56'
W. Madrigal ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
61'
C. Espinoza · Assist: H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
E. Tagseth ↔ P. Yazbek
Nashville SC
🔄
68'
C. Sanchez ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
🔄
68'
E. Baez ↔ P. Amador
Atlanta United FC
🔄
74'
A. Fortune ↔ S. Lobjanidze
Atlanta United FC
🟨
76'
Lucas Hoyos
Atlanta United FC
🔄
82'
E. Latte Lath ↔ C. Togashi
Atlanta United FC
🔄
84'
A. Qasem ↔ S. Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
84'
A. Najar ↔ R. Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC
90'
S. Mohammed
Nashville SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 60.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
60.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 26.9%
Draw 8.4%
Nashville SC Win 64.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1
Nashville SC1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
31 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.59
5
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
8
3.71
Shots on Goal
4.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 11 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 17 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic Nashville SC
3 Wins 10
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 2
14 Goals For 31
15 Goals Against 10
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.59
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 4
3.71 Shots On Goal 4.77
11 Total Shots 11.92
4.57 Corners 4
55.4% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nashville SC's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Nashville SC seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Atlanta United FC sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Nashville SC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nashville SC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nashville SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Miranchuk (4 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 goals), Tomás Jacob (1 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 assists), E. Baez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Sergio Santos unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 15:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on S. Surridge (7 goals), C. Espinoza (2 goals), H. Mukhtar (2 goals), with creative support from P. Yazbek (3 assists), C. Espinoza (2 assists), H. Mukhtar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. Although they are without R. Baker-Whiting, J. Palacios, S. Surridge, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 3 times, Nashville SC won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / Nashville SC 4-4-2
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 3, Nashville SC 2
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 3, draws 5, Nashville SC wins 7
Stats
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 7
11 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 12
8 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 4
535 Total passes 437
461 Passes accurate 365
0.62 expected_goals 2.17
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atlanta United FC
Formation
Nashville SC
L. Hoyos
L. Hoyos
T. Jacob
T. Jacob
S. Gregersen
S. Gregersen
E. Mihaj
E. Mihaj
E. Baez
E. Baez
T. Muyumba
T. Muyumba
A. Miranchuk
A. Miranchuk
A. Fortune
A. Fortune
C. Sanchez
C. Sanchez
M. Galarza
M. Galarza
E. Latte Lath
E. Latte Lath
B. Schwake
B. Schwake
A. Najar
A. Najar
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
M. Woledzi
M. Woledzi
D. Lovitz
D. Lovitz
C. Espinoza
C. Espinoza
M. Corcoran
M. Corcoran
E. Tagseth
E. Tagseth
A. Qasem
A. Qasem
H. Mukhtar
🎯
H. Mukhtar
W. Madrigal
W. Madrigal
Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
L. Hoyos
🟨 76'
G
55
T. Jacob
D
5
S. Gregersen
D
4
E. Mihaj
D
3
E. Baez
↓ 68'
D
8
T. Muyumba
🟨 45+1'
M
59
A. Miranchuk
M
35
A. Fortune
↓ 74'
M
48
C. Sanchez
↓ 68'
M
88
M. Galarza
M
9
E. Latte Lath
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
42
J. Hibbert
G
22
F. Picault
↑ 68'
F
30
C. Togashi
↑ 82'
F
11
S. Lobjanidze
↑ 74'
F
28
W. Reilly
M
47
M. Edwards
D
2
R. Hernandez
D
6
J. Berrocal
D
18
P. Amador
↑ 68'
D
Nashville SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
99
B. Schwake
G
31
A. Najar
↓ 84'
D
4
J. Palacios
D
3
M. Woledzi
D
2
D. Lovitz
D
7
C. Espinoza
⚽ 61'
M
16
M. Corcoran
M
20
E. Tagseth
↓ 66'
M
37
A. Qasem
↓ 84'
M
10
H. Mukhtar
🎯 61'
F
41
W. Madrigal
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Willis
G
6
B. Acosta
M
5
J. Maher
D
22
J. Bauer
D
14
S. Mohammed
⚽ 90' ↑ 84'
M
19
A. Muyl
↑ 56'
M
27
R. Baker-Whiting
↑ 84'
D
8
P. Yazbek
↑ 66'
M
17
W. Pacius
F
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Lexington
4
0
W
Last matches: Nashville SC
23.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
CF Montreal
1
0
W
18.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
H2H: Atlanta United FC vs Nashville SC
18.07.26
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
L
18.04.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
31.08.25
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
W
03.05.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.09.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
18.05.24
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
26.08.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
4
0
W
29.04.23
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
1
L
21.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
12.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
L
28.08.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
09.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
29.05.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
13.09.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
4
2
L
22.08.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
0
W
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
30.01.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Lexington
4
0
W
H2H at home: Atlanta United FC
18.04.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
03.05.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.09.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
26.08.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
4
0
W
28.08.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
29.05.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
22.08.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
0
W
Last matches: Nashville SC
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
18.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
2
2
D
H2H away: Nashville SC
18.04.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
03.05.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.09.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
26.08.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
4
0
L
28.08.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
29.05.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
22.08.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
0
L

Missing Players

Atlanta United FC 3 missing
-
Sergio Santos
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
M. Almiron
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Alzate
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Nashville SC 2 missing
-
C. Applewhite
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
S. Surridge
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT