BRAZIL SERIE B
24.08.2026 22:30
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: S. Sampaio
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Diogo Batista de Souza
Athletic Club
🟨
18'
Jota
Athletic Club
19'
Nicolas Careca · Assist: Romulo
Novorizontino
🔄
33'
Jota ↔ D. Vera
Athletic Club
🟨
45+1'
Diogo Batista de Souza
Athletic Club
🟥
45+1'
Diogo Batista de Souza
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
J. Pool ↔ Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
59'
Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
61'
Enzo Santos ↔ Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
🔄
61'
Max ↔ Assis
Athletic Club
🔄
61'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
68'
Felipe Negrucci ↔ Felipe Vieira
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Leo Naldi ↔ Matheus Bianqui
Novorizontino
🔄
73'
Romulo ↔ Diego Galo
Novorizontino
77'
Matheus Bianqui · Assist: Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🔄
80'
Nicolas Careca ↔ Maykon Jesus
Novorizontino
🔄
80'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
81'
W. Aponza · Assist: Assis
Athletic Club
90'
Luis Oyama · Assist: Juninho
Novorizontino

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.9%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 47.3%
Draw 8.2%
Novorizontino Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club0.97
Novorizontino1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
24 GF / 21 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
35 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.52
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
13
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
12
3.26
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 23 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 23 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Novorizontino
8 Wins 10
10 Draws 7
5 Losses 6
24 Goals For 35
21 Goals Against 20
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
13 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
3.26 Shots On Goal 4.74
11.52 Total Shots 14.13
4.22 Corners 5.91
44.2% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Novorizontino. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Novorizontino arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Novorizontino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Novorizontino having the stronger overall control.

Athletic Club Analysis

So far, Athletic Club have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 31 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses, while the 21:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), Max (2 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Max (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Novorizontino Analysis

With 33 points from 21 games and a place of 7, Novorizontino still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 32:20, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Robson (6 goals), Rômulo (3 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (6 assists), Robson (3 assists), Juninho (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 0 times, Novorizontino won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:9 from Athletic Club's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 3-4-3 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 0, draws 0, Novorizontino wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation