SPAIN LA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
San Mamés
Referee: I. Diaz
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Celta Vigo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
W. Swedberg · Assist: I. Moriba
Celta Vigo
🟨
10'
Javier Rueda
Celta Vigo
🟨
38'
Yuri Berchiche
Athletic Club
🟨
42'
Ionuț Radu
Celta Vigo
🔄
46'
U. Gomez ↔ R. Navarro
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
J. Rueda ↔ O. Mingueza
Celta Vigo
52'
I. Williams · Assist: Y. Berchiche
Athletic Club
🔄
59'
B. Iglesias ↔ I. Aspas
Celta Vigo
🔄
59'
F. Jutgla ↔ P. Duran
Celta Vigo
🟨
68'
Aymeric Laporte
Athletic Club
🔄
71'
M. Jauregizar ↔ A. Rego
Athletic Club
🔄
74'
W. Swedberg ↔ H. Alvarez
Celta Vigo
🔄
82'
A. Berenguer ↔ N. Serrano
Athletic Club
🔄
82'
G. Guruzeta ↔ M. Sannadi
Athletic Club
🔄
86'
I. Williams ↔ Izeta
Athletic Club
🔄
90+1'
F. Lopez ↔ M. Vecino
Celta Vigo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 33.9%
Draw 20.6%
Celta Vigo Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.2
Celta Vigo1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
56 GF / 73 GA
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
WLDWL
77 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
24
BTTS Yes
34
23
Over 2.5
28
4.22
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 49 matches
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 53 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Celta Vigo
18 Wins 21
7 Draws 15
24 Losses 17
56 Goals For 77
73 Goals Against 68
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
24 BTTS Yes 34
34 Over 1.5 44
23 Over 2.5 28
12 Over 3.5 13
9 Clean Sheets 14
19 Failed To Score 8
4.22 Shots On Goal 4.08
13.37 Total Shots 10.49
5.71 Corners 3.87
47.6% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Celta Vigo's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Celta Vigo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Celta Vigo in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Celta Vigo having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 44 points from 35 matches. Their record of 13 wins, 5 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 40:51, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gorka Guruzeta (9 goals), N. Williams (6 goals), R. Navarro (6 goals), with creative support from Yuri Berchiche (5 assists), I. Williams (4 assists), Gorka Guruzeta (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Celta Vigo Analysis

With 50 points from 35 games and a place of 6, Celta Vigo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 49:44 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Iglesias (14 goals), Ferran Jutglà (7 goals), Iago Aspas (5 goals), with creative support from Williot Swedberg (5 assists), J. Rueda (5 assists), Óscar Mingueza (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 6 times, Celta Vigo won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Athletic Club's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 / Celta Vigo 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Athletic Club 5, Celta Vigo 2
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 6, draws 3, Celta Vigo wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2