BRAZIL SERIE B
19.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: dos Santos Martins, Franciel

Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.3%
Odds 2.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.66
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.3%
2.28
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.66
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 71.3%
Draw 6.1%
Botafogo SP Win 22.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.21
Botafogo SP1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
33 GF / 30 GA
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WLDWL
31 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
15
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
13
3.29
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 28 matches
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 28 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Botafogo SP
10 Wins 8
10 Draws 7
8 Losses 13
33 Goals For 31
30 Goals Against 35
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
15 BTTS Yes 15
21 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 10
3.29 Shots On Goal 3.43
11.07 Total Shots 11.93
4.25 Corners 5.96
43.8% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Athletic Club's more proactive style and Botafogo SP's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Botafogo SP in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo SP having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Botafogo SP.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 12 with 37 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 8 defeats with a 31:30 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), D. Vera (3 goals), with creative support from Max (3 assists), Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 31 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 30:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Morelli (7 goals), Vilar (2 goals), Hygor (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Kelvin (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 3 times, Botafogo SP won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:1 from Athletic Club's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-1-4-1 / Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 3, draws 0, Botafogo SP wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
10 28 10 11 7 37:28 9 41
L W L L W
11 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 28 8 7 13 31:35 -4 31
L L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
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