JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
19.09.2026 09:00
Best Denki Stadium

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Avispa Fukuoka Win 33.8%
Draw 17%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 49.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avispa Fukuoka1.12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WWDLW
9 GF / 11 GA
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WLDWL
19 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
2.71
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
5
5.43
Shots on Goal
7.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 7 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Statistic Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 Wins 4
1 Draws 2
5 Losses 1
9 Goals For 19
11 Goals Against 6
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 2.71
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
5.43 Shots On Goal 7.57
14.43 Total Shots 19.86
5.14 Corners 6.14
43.9% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and Avispa Fukuoka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Avispa Fukuoka have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 11 points while Avispa Fukuoka sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 4 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 9:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Morooka (3 goals), Y. Tsujioka (1 goals), Werik Popó (1 goals), with creative support from D. Fukazawa (2 assists), S. Morooka (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Placed 5 with 11 points from 6 outings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 13:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Suzuki (4 goals), S. Haller (3 goals), H. Kawabe (1 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (1 assists), S. Haller (1 assists), H. Kawabe (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 2 times, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from Avispa Fukuoka's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Avispa Fukuoka wins 2, draws 4, Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 9

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 19:6 13 17
D W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 2 1 19:6 13 14
W L W D D
5 7 4 2 1 13:8 5 14
W W D W W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L D
7 7 3 3 1 13:9 4 12
W W L W D
8 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
9 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
D W D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:11 -5 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
L D W D W
12 7 3 0 4 13:17 -4 9
L W W W L
13 7 2 1 4 4:7 -3 7
W L D L L
14 7 2 1 4 9:14 -5 7
W L D L L
15 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L L D D L
16 7 2 0 5 7:13 -6 6
L L L W W
17 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
18 7 1 1 5 9:11 -2 4
L D L L L
19 7 0 4 3 3:9 -6 4
D D L L D
20 7 1 1 5 6:16 -10 4
D W L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League