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ITALY › SERIE A
25.10.2026 14:00
New Balance Arena

Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atalanta Win 52.7%
Draw 4.1%
Frosinone Win 43.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta1.39
Frosinone1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atalanta Atalanta
WWDLW
22 GF / 16 GA
Frosinone Frosinone
WLDWL
26 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
8
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
8
4.8
Shots on Goal
5.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atalanta Atalanta 14 matches
Frosinone Frosinone 15 matches
Atalanta Statistic Frosinone
8 Wins 8
1 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
22 Goals For 26
16 Goals Against 17
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
8 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 2
4.8 Shots On Goal 5.89
13.6 Total Shots 17.67
3.9 Corners 5.22
49.8% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Frosinone's more proactive style and Atalanta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Frosinone. Atalanta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta sit 10 with 9 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 8:8, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through N. Krstović (3 goals), Éderson (1 goals), L. Samardžić (1 goals), with creative support from N. Krstović (1 assists), C. De Ketelaere (1 assists), G. Gaetano (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Frosinone Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 13 points from 7 games, Frosinone bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 13:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Raimondo (7 goals), G. Kvernadze (3 goals), G. Calò (2 goals), with creative support from R. Schmid (3 assists), G. Kvernadze (1 assists), G. Calò (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Atalanta won 4 times, Frosinone won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:2 from Atalanta's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Atalanta 4-2-3-1 / Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atalanta 2, Frosinone 0
H2H summary: Atalanta wins 4, draws 1, Frosinone wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 21:9 12 19
W W D W W
2 7 6 1 0 14:4 10 19
W W W D W
3 7 5 2 0 16:3 13 17
W D D W W
4 7 4 3 0 14:7 7 15
W D W D D
5 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W D L W W
6 7 4 1 2 13:9 4 13
W L W D W
7 7 4 1 2 6:7 -1 13
L D W W W
8 7 3 2 2 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
9 7 3 1 3 10:7 3 10
L W D W L
10 7 3 1 3 10:9 1 10
W W D L W
11 7 3 0 4 10:11 -1 9
L W L L L
12 7 3 0 4 9:12 -3 9
W L L W L
13 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L D L W D
14 7 2 1 4 13:15 -2 7
W L W L D
15 7 1 2 4 6:10 -4 5
L W D L D
16 7 1 1 5 9:16 -7 4
L L L L L
17 7 1 1 5 5:13 -8 4
L W L D L
18 7 1 1 5 8:17 -9 4
L L D W L
19 7 1 1 5 4:13 -9 4
L L W L D
20 7 1 0 6 6:16 -10 3
W L L L L
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