Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
56.3%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
54.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.7%
|
- |
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Aston Villa
46 matches
Sunderland
35 matches
| Aston Villa | Statistic | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wins | 13 |
| 7 | Draws | 11 |
| 11 | Losses | 11 |
| 70 | Goals For | 35 |
| 49 | Goals Against | 38 |
| 1.52 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
| 24 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 34 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 23 | Over 2.5 | 13 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 16 | Clean Sheets | 11 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 12 |
| 4.61 | Shots On Goal | 3.57 |
| 12.48 | Total Shots | 10.6 |
| 5.15 | Corners | 3.83 |
| 53.8% | Ball Possession | 45.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Aston Villa's more proactive style and Sunderland's more cautious structure. Sunderland seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aston Villa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aston Villa expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sunderland in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sunderland having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sunderland.
With 55 points from 32 games and a place of 4, Aston Villa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 43:38, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through O. Watkins (9 goals), M. Rogers (8 goals), Emiliano Buendía (5 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (4 assists), Y. Tielemans (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Sunderland sit 10 with 46 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 33:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Brobbey (6 goals), C. Talbi (4 goals), E. Le Fee (4 goals), with creative support from Granit Xhaka (5 assists), E. Le Fee (4 assists), N. Mukiele (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Angulo, D. Ballard, J. T. Bi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa won 7 times, Sunderland won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:14 from Aston Villa's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
Home
|
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 |
Sunderland
Away
|
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
| 8 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|