ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Villa Park
Referee: S. Barrott
Aston Villa
Match Timeline
Sunderland
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
O. Watkins · Assist: J. McGinn
Aston Villa
9'
C. Rigg · Assist: N. Sadiki
Sunderland
36'
O. Watkins · Assist: I. Maatsen
Aston Villa
46'
M. Rogers · Assist: O. Watkins
Aston Villa
🔄
63'
C. Rigg ↔ C. Talbi
Sunderland
🔄
63'
O. Alderete ↔ D. Ballard
Sunderland
🔄
63'
R. Mandava ↔ T. Hume
Sunderland
🟨
66'
Noah Sadiki
Sunderland
🔄
70'
I. Maatsen ↔ L. Digne
Aston Villa
🔄
70'
R. Barkley ↔ E. Buendia
Aston Villa
🔄
80'
O. Watkins ↔ T. Abraham
Aston Villa
🔄
80'
J. McGinn ↔ J. Sancho
Aston Villa
🔄
84'
B. Brobbey ↔ W. Isidor
Sunderland
86'
T. Hume
Sunderland
87'
W. Isidor · Assist: E. Le Fee
Sunderland
🟨
90+8'
Amadou Onana
Aston Villa
🟨
90+8'
Daniel Ballard
Sunderland
🟨
90+5'
Nordi Mukiele
Sunderland
90'
T. Abraham · Assist: L. Digne
Aston Villa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
54.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Aston Villa Win 56.3%
Draw 12.4%
Sunderland Win 31.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.35
Sunderland1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WWDLW
70 GF / 49 GA
Sunderland Sunderland
WLDWL
35 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
24
BTTS Yes
15
23
Over 2.5
13
4.61
Shots on Goal
3.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aston Villa Aston Villa 46 matches
Sunderland Sunderland 35 matches
Aston Villa Statistic Sunderland
28 Wins 13
7 Draws 11
11 Losses 11
70 Goals For 35
49 Goals Against 38
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
24 BTTS Yes 15
34 Over 1.5 23
23 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 4
16 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 12
4.61 Shots On Goal 3.57
12.48 Total Shots 10.6
5.15 Corners 3.83
53.8% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Aston Villa's more proactive style and Sunderland's more cautious structure. Sunderland seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aston Villa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aston Villa expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sunderland in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sunderland having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sunderland.

Aston Villa Analysis

With 55 points from 32 games and a place of 4, Aston Villa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 43:38, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through O. Watkins (9 goals), M. Rogers (8 goals), Emiliano Buendía (5 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (4 assists), Y. Tielemans (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Sunderland Analysis

Sunderland sit 10 with 46 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 33:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Brobbey (6 goals), C. Talbi (4 goals), E. Le Fee (4 goals), with creative support from Granit Xhaka (5 assists), E. Le Fee (4 assists), N. Mukiele (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Angulo, D. Ballard, J. T. Bi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa won 7 times, Sunderland won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:14 from Aston Villa's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 / Sunderland 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Aston Villa 2, Sunderland 5
H2H summary: Aston Villa wins 7, draws 6, Sunderland wins 2
Stats
Aston Villa Aston Villa
Sunderland Sunderland
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 3
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Goal 7
5 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 8
5 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
403 Total passes 406
341 Passes accurate 340
2.84 expected_goals 1.73
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Aston Villa
Formation
Sunderland
E. Martinez
E. Martinez
M. Cash
M. Cash
E. Konsa
E. Konsa
T. Mings
T. Mings
I. Maatsen
🎯
I. Maatsen
A. Onana
A. Onana
Y. Tielemans
Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
🎯
J. McGinn
R. Barkley
R. Barkley
M. Rogers
M. Rogers
O. Watkins
⚽ 2 🎯
O. Watkins
R. Roefs
R. Roefs
N. Mukiele
N. Mukiele
L. O'Nien
L. O'Nien
O. Alderete
O. Alderete
R. Mandava
R. Mandava
G. Xhaka
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
🎯
N. Sadiki
C. Rigg
C. Rigg
H. Diarra
H. Diarra
E. Le Fee
🎯
E. Le Fee
B. Brobbey
B. Brobbey
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
E. Martinez
G
2
M. Cash
D
4
E. Konsa
D
5
T. Mings
D
22
I. Maatsen
🎯 36' ↓ 70'
D
24
A. Onana
🟨 90+8'
M
8
Y. Tielemans
M
7
J. McGinn
🎯 2' ↓ 80'
M
6
R. Barkley
↓ 70'
M
27
M. Rogers
⚽ 46'
M
11
O. Watkins
⚽ 2' ⚽ 36' 🎯 46' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
40
M. Bizot
G
3
V. Lindelof
D
31
L. Bailey
F
21
Douglas Luiz
M
26
L. Bogarde
M
12
L. Digne
🎯 90' ↑ 70'
D
18
T. Abraham
⚽ 90' ↑ 80'
F
10
E. Buendia
↑ 70'
M
19
J. Sancho
↑ 80'
F
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
R. Roefs
G
20
N. Mukiele
🟨 90+5'
D
13
L. O'Nien
D
15
O. Alderete
↓ 63'
D
17
R. Mandava
↓ 63'
D
34
G. Xhaka
M
27
N. Sadiki
🎯 9' 🟨 66'
M
11
C. Rigg
⚽ 9' ↓ 63'
M
19
H. Diarra
M
28
E. Le Fee
🎯 87'
M
9
B. Brobbey
↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
31
M. Ellborg
G
3
D. Cirkin
D
50
H. Jones
M
7
C. Talbi
↑ 63'
F
5
D. Ballard
↑ 63' 🟨 90+8'
D
6
L. Geertruida
D
18
W. Isidor
⚽ 87' ↑ 84'
F
32
T. Hume
⚽ 86' ↑ 63'
D
12
E. Mayenda
F
Last matches: Aston Villa
24.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester City
2
1
W
20.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
3
0
W
15.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Liverpool
4
2
W
10.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Burnley
2
2
D
07.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
4
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Tottenham
1
2
L
30.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Fulham
0
1
L
16.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
4
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
Aston Villa
Elche
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
West Ham
2
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester United
1
3
L
12.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1
4
L
27.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Wolves
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Leeds
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Aston Villa
Newcastle
1
3
L
Last matches: Sunderland
24.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Chelsea
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Everton
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester United
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Wolves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
5
L
12.04.26
Pre
Sunderland
Tottenham
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Newcastle
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brighton
0
1
L
08.03.26
FA
Sunderland
Port Vale
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Leeds
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Bournemouth
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Fulham
1
3
L
15.02.26
FA
Sunderland
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Liverpool
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Arsenal
0
3
L
02.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Burnley
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
West Ham
1
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
10.01.26
FA
Sunderland
Everton
1
1
D
07.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brentford
0
3
L
H2H: Aston Villa vs Sunderland
19.04.26
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4
3
W
21.09.25
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
1
1
D
06.03.18
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
0
3
W
21.11.17
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
1
W
02.01.16
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
3
1
L
29.08.15
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
2
D
14.03.15
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
0
4
W
28.12.14
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
01.01.14
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
0
1
W
30.11.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
29.04.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
6
1
W
03.11.12
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
0
1
W
21.04.12
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
29.10.11
H2H
Sunderland
Aston Villa
2
2
D
05.01.11
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
1
L
Last matches: Aston Villa
15.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Liverpool
4
2
W
07.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
4
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Tottenham
1
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
4
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Aston Villa
Elche
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
West Ham
2
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
2
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1
4
L
21.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Leeds
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Aston Villa
Newcastle
1
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Brighton
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Brentford
0
1
L
29.01.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Red Bull Salzburg
3
2
W
18.01.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Everton
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
21.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester United
2
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Arsenal
2
1
W
30.11.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Wolves
1
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
Aston Villa
BSC Young Boys
2
1
W
09.11.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
4
0
W
H2H at home: Aston Villa
19.04.26
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4
3
W
21.11.17
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
1
W
29.08.15
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
2
D
28.12.14
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
30.11.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
29.04.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
6
1
W
21.04.12
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
05.01.11
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
1
L
Last matches: Sunderland
17.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Everton
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Wolves
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Newcastle
2
1
W
08.03.26
FA
Sunderland
Port Vale
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Leeds
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Bournemouth
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Sunderland
Oxford United
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Arsenal
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
West Ham
1
3
L
10.01.26
FA
Sunderland
Everton
1
1
D
07.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brentford
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Tottenham
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Sunderland
Brighton
0
0
D
06.12.25
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester City
0
3
L
03.12.25
Pre
Sunderland
Liverpool
1
1
D
22.11.25
Pre
Sunderland
Fulham
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
Sunderland
Chelsea
2
1
W
04.10.25
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester United
0
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
1
0
W
13.09.25
Pre
Sunderland
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
H2H away: Sunderland
19.04.26
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4
3
L
21.11.17
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
1
L
29.08.15
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
2
2
D
28.12.14
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
30.11.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
29.04.13
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
6
1
L
21.04.12
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
0
D
05.01.11
H2H
Aston Villa
Sunderland
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Aston Villa 2 missing
-
Alysson
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
B. Kamara
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Sunderland 5 missing
-
N. Angulo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Ballard
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. T. Bi
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Mundle
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
B. Traore
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT