Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
71%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
74.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.3%
|
- |
Arouca
Estrela
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Arouca
29 matches
Estrela
29 matches
| Arouca | Statistic | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 6 |
| 5 | Draws | 10 |
| 15 | Losses | 13 |
| 37 | Goals For | 33 |
| 58 | Goals Against | 48 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.14 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.66 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 23 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 19 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 14 | Over 3.5 | 11 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 13 |
| 3.45 | Shots On Goal | 3.69 |
| 10.34 | Total Shots | 11.14 |
| 3.69 | Corners | 3.52 |
| 49.4% | Ball Possession | 48.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arouca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Estrela in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estrela having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Estrela.
Arouca sit 12 with 32 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats with a 37:58 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 28 points from 29 games and a place of 14, Estrela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 33:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Kikas (6 goals), S. Lopes Cabral (6 goals), A. Marcus (5 goals), with creative support from S. Lopes Cabral (5 assists), A. Marcus (5 assists), Paulo Moreira (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 3 times, Estrela won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Arouca's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Arouca
3
3
5
8
3
4
Lineups
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Alverca
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
Sporting CP
Arouca
AVS
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Santa Clara
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
Moreirense
Estrela
FC Porto
Estrela
Sporting CP
Estrela
Nacional
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estrela
Rio Ave
Estrela
GIL Vicente
Estrela
AVS
Estrela
Tondela
Estrela
Guimaraes
Estrela
Santa Clara
Estrela
Alverca
Estrela
Benfica
Estrela
Estoril
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
Moreirense
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Sporting CP
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Alverca
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
AVS
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Moreirense
Estrela
Nacional
Estrela
Rio Ave
Estrela
AVS
Estrela
Guimaraes
Estrela
Alverca
Estrela
Benfica
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
FC Porto
Estrela
Sporting CP
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estrela
GIL Vicente
Estrela
Tondela
Estrela
Santa Clara
Estrela
Estoril