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SWEDEN › ETTAN - NORRA
17.10.2026 14:00
Midgardsvallen

Arlanda vs Järfälla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.54 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.49 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Arlanda Win 88%
Draw 5.2%
Järfälla Win 6.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arlanda2.04
Järfälla1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arlanda Arlanda
WWDLW
64 GF / 48 GA
Järfälla Järfälla
WLDWL
39 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
2.28
21
BTTS Yes
19
20
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arlanda Arlanda 34 matches
Järfälla Järfälla 29 matches
Arlanda Statistic Järfälla
16 Wins 5
9 Draws 5
9 Losses 19
64 Goals For 39
48 Goals Against 66
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 2.28
21 BTTS Yes 19
25 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 16
11 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Arlanda's more proactive style and Järfälla's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Järfälla. Arlanda come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Arlanda arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 48 points compared to Järfälla in 15 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Järfälla having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Arlanda Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 48 points from 25 games, Arlanda bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 46:28, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Järfälla Analysis

Järfälla sit 15 with 19 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 33:55 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Arlanda won 5 times, Järfälla won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Arlanda's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Arlanda wins 5, draws 0, Järfälla wins 3

Standings

North
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 3 4 63:21 42 60
W W W W W
2 26 14 6 6 46:31 15 48
L W W W W
3 27 15 3 9 42:41 1 48
W W W L D
4 26 14 5 7 48:37 11 47
L D W L W
5 26 13 6 7 51:26 25 45
L L W L D
6 26 12 8 6 40:25 15 44
W D D D D
7 26 12 7 7 41:36 5 43
L D W D D
8 26 10 5 11 44:45 -1 35
W L L W L
9 26 10 5 11 36:42 -6 35
W W L W W
10 26 9 6 11 36:44 -8 33
D W D L L
11 26 9 4 13 32:46 -14 31
D L L W L
12 26 7 7 12 39:55 -16 28
D L W L D
13 26 6 9 11 27:36 -9 27
W L L D L
14 26 5 8 13 33:49 -16 23
D D W W L
15 26 5 4 17 34:57 -23 19
L D L L W
16 27 3 6 18 46:67 -21 15
L L D L L